Density Data Gap Filling Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab Duke University November 14 – 16, 2012 Marine Mammal Density Data Gap Assessments and Update for the Phase III AFTT Study Area Workshop objectives

Workshop Objectives This workshop will explore the current state of the Navy Marine Species Density Database (NMSDD), the Navy Acoustic Effects Model (NAEMO), current animal density modeling efforts, and outline next steps for future marine animal density modeling.

General Objectives The purpose of this effort is to develop & implement methods to fill data gaps from the CetMap products to cover the remaining areas in the AFTT study area. The primary focus of this task will be to develop and implement a quantitative approach to extrapolate the data from the CetMap working group, both spatially and temporally for all marine mammal species present within the AFTT area. These marine density data will be the most up-to- date definitive data for acoustic effect analysis in the upcoming Phase III AFTT EIS.

Workshop Objectives Discuss making project outputs publically available and re-usable through the web and web services. Build consensus on next generation modeling approaches or ensembles for the USN Atlantic Testing and Training Range (AFTT). Discuss data gap assessment, gap filling methods, and creating a hierarchy of data quality Discuss the future beyond this modeling effort including data standards and model processes that enable repeatability of existing models.

Workshop Objectives Additional objectives… Set the stage for potential parallel efforts to be conducted for Pacific training areas… Begin the process of adding sea turtle density assessments more fully into the process…

Atlantic Fleet Testing & Training – AFTT study area

Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico Filling Density Data Gaps Density of protected species ship & aircraft surveys Atlantic Fleet Testing & Training Area ? ? ? ? ? ? The offshore–distant data-gap problem….

Filling Density Data Gaps Density of protected species ship & aircraft surveys ? The port & pier-side data-gap problem….

Workshop process Moderated discussions – Question driven; – Solutions focused; – Product oriented; The outcomes of this workshop are intended to directly inform future priorities and activities

Workshop Objectives (1) Build consensus on next generation modeling approaches or ensembles for the USN Atlantic Testing and Training Range (AFTT). General Discussion Topics: Appropriate types of modeling approaches; Error & uncertainty; Model validation & testing; Merging different models and information;

Workshop Objectives (2) Discuss data gap assessment, gap filling methods, and creating a hierarchy of data quality. General Discussion Topics: Gaps in space & time; Available data types and priorities; Role of expert knowledge; Hierarchy of data quality.

Workshop Objectives (3) Discuss the future beyond this modeling effort including data standards and model processes that enable repeatability of existing models. General Discussion Topics: Data standards and classification of data types; Best practice standards for models; Ensemble models;

Workshop Objectives (4) Discuss making project outputs publically available and re-usable through the web and web services. General Discussion Topics: Data and model delivery: clients & users; Product types; Discovery metadata services; Data & model development, delivery & archival process.

agenda Day 1, Wednesday November 14 – Problem Overview (Executive Classroom) 10:00 AMIntroduction Welcome / Meeting Objectives (Pat) Logistics (Ben D) Introductions 10:30 AMContext and Programmatic Needs Navy AFTT density modeling needs (Anu) NOAA remarks (Jolie) Updates on ongoing projects CetMap progress (discussion leads: Jolie, Pat) AMAPPS (discussion leads: Debi, Lance) Atlantic/GoMex modeling update (discussion leads: Pat, Ben B, Jason) Pacific modeling update (discussion leads: Karin/Elizabeth) 12:00 PMLunch – Thomas Center dining room Context & Updates

agenda Day 1, Wednesday November 14 1:00 PM Extending density models Overview of the problem (Pat) Extent, seasonality, port/pierside Navy Acoustic Effect model - NAEMO (discussion lead: TBD) Sea Mammal Research Unit (SMRU) approaches and guidance (TBD) 2:00 PMData Availability: Moderated Discussion Hierarchy of Types Line Transect Surveys Passive Acoustics Platforms of Opportunity, new and non-traditional data sources Data Sources & Future data collection – Navy – NOAA AMAPPS 3:00 PM Coffee Break/Free discussion 3:30 PMStatistical Approaches: Moderated Discussion Overview of existing modeling approaches (Pat) Model types, Feasibility and implementation, Error and uncertainty, Selection and validation, Edge matching 4:45 PMEnd of day wrap up 5:00 PMBreak for the day Problem definition & discussion

agenda Day 2, Thursday, November 15 – Model Details 9:00 AMDay 2 overview and goals 9:30 AMModel approach brainstorming Statistical approaches for data poor regions Ensemble approaches and model averaging 10:30 AMCoffee Break/Free Discussion 11:00 AMExtrapolation and Gap filling Spatial gaps Navy Ports / Pierside Coastal Pelagic Temporal gaps Seasonal Gaps Taxonomic gaps guilds, surrogates Role of Expert Opinion Validation of gap filling 12:00 PMLunch – Thomas Center dining room Potential solutions & approaches

agenda Day 2, Thursday, November 15 – Model Details 1:00 PM Addressing error, uncertainty and standards What is possible? What is required? Creating an hierarchy of data quality Standards to streamline incorporating new data into existing models 3:00 PM Coffee Break 3:30 PM Implementation Timelines – Milestone map for implementation – NMSDD update process – Public and interagency access – Web services and upcoming technologies – Plan for third party guidance and review 4:45 PM End of day wrap up – Modify and approve agenda for final day 5:00 PMBreak for the day Reality check: error, uncertainty, standards, requirements & timelines

agenda Day 3, Friday, November 16 – Next Steps 9:00 AMReview and next steps Review responsibilities Approve timeline 10:30 AMCoffee Break 10:45 AMDiscussion and wrap up Priorities Next steps 12:00 PMLunch – Thomas Center dining room 1:00 PMMeeting adjourns Path forward & next steps

Logistics