Anchorage Chamber 1/9/06 Fran Ulmer Director Institute of Social and Economic Research

Outline  ISER Overview  Anchorage at 90  Alaska Natural Gas  Kids Count  Soon to be released reports

ISER The Institute of Social and Economic Research

Mission  ISER enhances the well-being of Alaskans and others, through non-partisan research that helps people understand social and economic systems and supports informed public and private decision-making. ISER pursues its mission by  Focusing attention on critical economic and social issues in Alaska, the Arctic, and similar regions;  Engaging in basic and applied research leading to better understanding of those issues; and  Disseminating knowledge through publications, community involvement, public service, and teaching.

 The Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) was established by the Alaska Legislature in ISER's research spans Alaska's modern history, examining everything from the effects of the massive 1964 earthquake to the current debate over how to help Alaska's troubled salmon industry.  ISER is part of the College of Business and Public Policy at UAA. It has a core staff of about 30 faculty members, research associates, and support personnel. Roughly one quarter of its budget is from university money and three quarters from grants and contracts. ISER staff members not only do research but also teach undergraduate and graduate courses.  ISER maintains the state's largest economic database and forecasts population and employment growth. All of ISER's research findings are published and are available through ISER's offices at UAA. Many are also available on this Web site and we're continually adding more.

Economic Analysis Reports Memorandum on the Economic and Demographic Impacts of a Knik Arm Bridge September By Scott Goldsmith. Economics of UA and the U Med District. December PDF. By Scott Goldsmith. Economic significance of the Alaska Railroad. December By Bradford Tuck and Mary Killorin 2005 Alaska Construction Spending Forecast. January By Scott Goldsmith and Mary Killorin. Economic Considerations in Thinking About United States Marine Aquaculture. By Gunnar Knapp August Federal Spending and Revenues In Alaska. November By Scott Goldsmith and Eric Larson.. Economic Impact of the 2001 Special Olympics World Winter Games Alaska. June By Scott Goldsmith, Virgene Hanna, Rosyland Frazier Evaluation of the Economic Impact of the September 2001 Kodiak Star Launch,. January By Alexandra Hill. Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport: Economic Significance 2000 July 2001 By Scott Goldsmith. ANILCA and the Seward Economy. January Scott Goldsmith and Stephanie Martin.

The Economic Significance of the Power Cost Equalization Program.November By Scott Goldsmith. Expanding Job Opportunities for Alaska Natives. November By G. Williamson McDiarmid, Scott Goldsmith, Mary Killorin, Suzanne Sharp, and others. Anchorage International Airport 1998 Economic Significance. September By Scott Goldsmith. Going Private: The 1968 Sale of The Alaska Communication System Research Summary No. 59. PDF. December Economic Effects of Management Changes for Kenai River Late-Run Sockeye Executive Summary. PDF. January Based on report of the same title. By multiple authors. What's the Economic Value of Alaska's Healthy Ecosystems? Research Summary No. 61. PDF. March 2001.By Steve Colt.. Economics of Sport Fishing in Alaska.. December Sharman Haley, Matthew Berman, Scott Goldsmith, Alexandra Hill, and Hongjin Kim Economic Assessment of Bristol Bay Area National Wildlife Refuges: Alaska Peninsula/ Becharof, Izembek, Togiak..December By Oliver Scott Goldsmith, Alexandra Hill Economic Assessment of Bristol Bay Area National Wildlife Refuges: Alaska Peninsula/ Becharof, Izembek, Togiak..December By Oliver Scott Goldsmith, Alexandra Hill Gross State Product ISER's estimates of Alaska GSP since 1961.

Fisheries Studies Changing Alaska’s Salmon Harvesting System: what are the challenges? November By Gunnar Knapp and Fran Ulmer. Projections of Future Bristol Bay Salmon Prices October Prepared for the Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission by Gunnar Knapp. Projections of Future Bristol Bay Salmon Prices October Prepared for the Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission by Gunnar Knapp. Economic Considerations in Thinking About United States Marine Aquaculture August Presentation by Gunnar Knapp to NOAA's Marine Fisheries Advisory Commission. Recent Presentations on the Alaska Seafood Industry Gunnar Knapp looks at challenges and opportunities facing Alaska's fisheries Change, Challenges, and Opportunities for Wild Fisheries A presentation by Gunnar Knapp Implications of Aquaculture for Wild Fisheries: The Case of Alaska Wild Salmon August Presentation by Gunnar Knapp. Effects of the 2002 Chignik Cooperative: A Survey of Chignik Salmon Permit Holders. June By Gunnar Knapp, Darla Siver, Patricia DeRoche, and Alexandra Hill Understanding Alaska Summary: Effects of the Chignik Salmon Cooperative: What the Permit Holders Say. June By Gunnar Knapp and Lexi Hill. A Village Fish Processing Plant: Yes or No? A Planning Handbook. May By Gunnar Knapp, Craig Wiese, Jude Henzler and Peter Redmayne. A Village Fish Processing Plant: Yes or No? A Planning Handbook. May By Gunnar Knapp, Craig Wiese, Jude Henzler and Peter Redmayne.

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ANCHORAGE AT 90 Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage University of Alaska Anchorage

Groups of Interest: How Are They Doing? Anchorage at 90 Workers Women Families Other Households Poor Alaska Natives Other Minorities Children Young Adults Baby Boomers Seniors Cheechakos Sourdoughs Military

Gross Migration: Who Came and Went 1995 to 2000? Anchorage at 90 Overall 35% more left Race 52% more Whites left 60% more Asians arrived Income Movers had lower incomes Household Type 61% more Married Couples Left Education More folks in the “middle” left Age Baby boomers & their kids left

Recent Immigrants Are Different Anchorage at 90

Racial Composition of Civilian Population in 2000 and 10 Year Growth Anchorage at 90 Share Growth White 73.3% +4% Ak Native 10%??? Asian 5.2%+27% Black 5.2%+20% Mixed 5%na Pacific Islands 1.3%415% TOTAL19%

Share of Population in 2000: Under 10 & BBer Anchorage at 90 White 15% 46% Asian 17%40% Black 19%37% Ak Native25%31% Pacific Islands 27%26%

Language as a Measure of Racial Diversity Anchorage at 90

Job Growth by Wage: Over 20 Years Anchorage at 90

Earnings Trend: Native vs. Non-Native Anchorage at 90

Median HH Income in 2000 Anchorage at 90 White $61,800 All HH$57,000 Asian$47,000 Black $43,000 Pacific Islander$36,600 Ak Native$36,000 US Total$41,800

Who was in the Bottom 20% of HHs in 2000? Anchorage at 90 Children being raised by single mothers51% People 65+24% Full Time Workers7% Adults with College Educations7% Residents by Race White 12% Asian19% Pacific Islander21% Ak Native27% Black29%

Families and Other Households Anchorage at 90

Share of Households with Children in 2000 Anchorage at 90 White 39% All HH42% Asian 51% Black 53% Ak Native48% Pacific Islands 69%

Young Adults Median Earnings of High School Dropouts as a % of College Graduates Anchorage at 90

Baby Boomers Rule in Anchorage!

Seniors are Choosing to Stay Anchorage at 90

Senior Living Arrangements Anchorage at 90

Median Income 2000: HH Headed by Senior Anchorage at 90 Anchorage Married Couples over 65$67,700 All Anchorage HH$57,000 All Anchorage HH over 65$45,000 All US HH$41,800 All US HH over 65$26,600 Anchorage Non-Family HH over 65$21,600

Take Away Message Anchorage at 90 Diversity is Increasing—And it is concentrated among younger residents People are still coming to Anchorage to look for opportunity—And finding it Economic opportunity means different things to different people Ak Natives remain the largest minority—With women finding more opportunities than men Non-wage income and high LFPR have offset declining wage rates—So household income remains high Our income distribution is more equitable than most places and the poverty rate lower—Thanks in part to the PFD Watch the Boomers—What they decide to do will impact us all We have matured to the point of having a suburb—And it looks different than we do Young adults today face a tougher job market than their parents

ANCHORAGE AT 90 For additional information on this and other topics related to Alaska’s economy:

What are the Key Considerations for the State? Whether it should invest in the pipelineWhether it should invest in the pipeline What it should do with its royalty gasWhat it should do with its royalty gas Whether it should change its tax systemWhether it should change its tax system

The Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline The proposed Alaska natural gas pipeline to carry North Slope gas to market is one of the hottest topics in Alaska today. What route the pipeline will follow, how it will be financed, who will own it, and what role the state government might take in advancing the project had not yet been decided at the end of The issues surrounding the proposed pipeline are complex and hard for the average person to sort out. In November 2005 the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) hosted a public forum on the gas pipeline, bringing together representatives of all the groups with current pipeline proposals, as well as the state government. All the groups made presentations, which we’re posting here as they become available. ISER itself prepared a short paper, summarizing some of the main public policy issues; that’s posted here as well. We’ll also be posting additional papers on the subject and links to other sites with information relevant to gas pipeline issues. We want to emphasize that ISER itself does not advocate any pipeline proposal or any specific public policies related to the pipeline. Our goal is to provide information we hope helps Alaskans understand who is proposing what and what the public policy choices are for Alaska.

Forum PresentationsTrans-Canada Presentation State of Alaska Presentation Alaska Gasline Port Authority Presentation by Ken Konrad, BP ISER Policy BriefsThe Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline: What’s It All About? Additional papers and articlesThe Past and Future of LNG in Alaska, by Arlon R. Tussing, November 2005 The Struggle for An Alaska Gas Pipeline: What Went Wrong? by Arlon R. Tussing, August, 1983 Anchorage Daily News Gasline Questions Governor Murkowski’s Anchorage Daily News article Anchorage Daily News LNG article

Upcoming Reports  Low-Cost, Reliable Power: How Does Anchorage Compare? Steve Colt.  Alaska Seniors: Status and Issues. Principal author Scott Goldsmith.  Alaska Construction Forecast Scott Goldsmith and Mary Killorin  Health Care Costs in Alaska Mark Foster  Understanding Alaska A summary of ISER's special studies of economic development issues so far.