July 2, 2010 Obama Exhorts Congress to Back Immigration Overhaul “All the News That’s Fit to Print” National Edition By Peter Baker WASHINGTON--In his first speech devoted entirely to immigration policy since taking office, Mr. Obama tried to navigate between what he called the two extremes of the debate, defending his efforts to strengthen border security while promoting a path to citizenship for many of the 11 million people in the United States illegally. Strengthen border security WASHINGTON--In his first speech devoted entirely to immigration policy since taking office, Mr. Obama tried to navigate between what he called the two extremes of the debate, defending his efforts to strengthen border security while promoting a path to citizenship for many of the 11 million people in the United States illegally. Promoting Path to Citizenship

Strengthen Border Security Operation Gatekeeper (1994): Strengthened border security along the San Diego-Tijuana border San Diego County Tijuana, Mexico Caltran began posting these signs along I-5 in early 90s after dozens of deaths

I. Strengthen Border Security San Diego Sector Apprehensions (%) Before Operation Gatekeeper (1994): Strengthened border security along the San Diego-Tijuana border San Diego County Tijuana, Mexico Caltran began posting these signs along I-5 in early 90s after dozens of deaths The Wall

Naco Douglas Deaths in the Arizona Desert,

I. Strengthen Border Security

Drug and Human Smuggling Routes

Primary Smuggling Route

Drug and Human Smuggling Routes Primary Smuggling Route Secondary Smuggling Route

Drug and Human Smuggling Routes Primary Smuggling Route Secondary Smuggling Route “Safe” Houses

Figure 1. The Rise in Border Enforcement, Linewatch hours INS Budget

Figure 2. Coyote prices,

Linewatch Hours INS Budget Coyote Prices

(1990$ per trip) Line Watch (100,000 of hours per year) Data: ^

Coyote Prices (1990$ per trip) Line Watch (100,000 of hours per year) Data: ^ ^

S 86 D 86 Market for Coyote Smuggling Services (CSS), Price (1990$ per trip) Quantity P 86 = $300 Q 86

P 86 = $300 Q 86 Q 03 Market for Coyote Smuggling Services (CSS), Price (1990$ per trip) S 03 S 86 D 86 D 03 Quantity P 03 = $1200

Effects of Strengthen Border Security No significant reduction in illegal immigration flows. Routes change and conditions worsen, The cost of migrating (coyotes & other costs) increase Migrants stay longer / less seasonal migration Migrants increasingly bring their families

Bottom Line of economists’ research— migrants respond to changing incentives

The Immigration Equation By Roger Lowenstein. The New York Times Magazine, July 9, 2006 Mannuel I. Immigrant from Guatemala. House Painter. Norma M. Immigrant from Mexico Housecleaner. Salvador C. Immigrant from Mexico. Construction. The question of whether “more job seekers from abroad mean fewer opportunities, or lower wages, for native workers -- is one of the most controversial ideas in labor economics.”

Georgia Manicurists, All Viet Non-Viet

The Growth, Dispersion and Composition of Manicurists, 1985 to 2006

Replacement or Displacement?

Figure 10.2: Demand and Supply of Rough Laborers