2014 Grand Challenge Symposium UseIT Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology Southern California Earthquake Center

The Grand Challenge  Use SCEC-VDO to visualize earthquake scenarios, in particular Loma Prieta type aftershock sequences, in honor of the 25 th anniversary the 1989 M6.9 earthquake.

Loma Prieta M6.9 Background This was one of more than 20 relevant earthquake forecasts made in the 83 years before the earthquake. Loma Prieta provided the first test of ATC-20, the post-earthquake review process that places red, yellow, or green placards on shaken buildings. Its successful application has led to widespread use in other disasters including the September 11, 2001, New York City terrorist incident.

The Grand Challenge Process 1. Rupture Selection Process 2. Visualizing the Risk- ShakeMaps and HAZUS 3. Improving SCEC-VDO 4. Creating Visualizations 5. Conclusions

UCERF3 UCERF3 Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast 3 Four main model components: 1.Fault models 2.Deformation models 3.Earthquake rate models 4.Probability models

Hazard Curve – OpenSHA By Location

List Generation

Final Rupture ID’s: Loma Prieta “Like”

USGS List

SCEC-VDO & UCERF3 Obtained rupture ID’s Obtained rupture ID’s

Super Computer Generated Simulations

List Generation 23 x 500 = 11,500 Simulations!

Final Simulations Simulation for rupture ID North San Andreas Fault M7.2 Substantial Typical Minor

Probabilistic Interpretation Analysis Team Gutenberg-Richter relation

Data & Statistical Analysis Analysis Team Main Magnitude M7.2 This graph shows that scenarios with higher number of aftershocks have a greater probability of having a magnitude larger than the main event.

ShakeMaps Visualization

Implementing ShakeMaps into HAZUS Analysis Team HAZUS uses census data to help determine economic losses as well as injuries and fatalities for a given area. In addition to census data, HAZUS requires the user to supply a ShakeMap in a file format that it can interpret.

HAZUS and GIS Once specific parameters are set, HAZUS is able to generate loss estimates based on economic investments, injuries, and fatalities. Using the raw data generated from HAZUS, the user can then map this data via GIS.

SCEC-VDODevelopment What is SCEC-VDO? Southern California Earthquake Center-Virtual Display of Objects A software application that allows the exploration of faults, earthquakes, and other geological events in a 3-dimensional environment

SCEC-VDODevelopment

SCEC-VDODevelopment How does it work? SCEC-VDO is built using Java – Java3D, a separate library for 3D visualization – It is program that has numerous plugins that allow the user to display different geological features on a map

SCEC-VDODevelopment How does it help the scientific community? SCEC-VDO is widely used by geologists and seismologists to develop new models – UCERF3 Visual representation of a complex natural phenomena – Geometry of fault ruptures – Connections – Topography – Video-making Capability

HAZUS Plugin in SCEC-VDO Development

Development Updates Events class was hard-coded and required over 5000 lines of code Now has under 800 lines of code and new HAZUS info can be added easily New color scheme Legend Updates Importing Process Information needed is put into XML file New tab is added if necessary

Loma Prieta Near You Videos Visualization The team created videos for each of the 23 rupture scenarios.The team created videos for each of the 23 rupture scenarios. Each video contains three- dimensional viewing of the rupture plane.Each video contains three- dimensional viewing of the rupture plane. ShakeMaps and HAZUS were integrated into each visualization.ShakeMaps and HAZUS were integrated into each visualization. Rupture Plane of a Magnitude 7.2 Scenario on the Northern San Andreas Fault

Scripting Plugin Development Why is it important to have video production capabilities in SCEC-VDO? What are its shortcomings?

Timeline Scripting Plugin Development

Aftershock Scenario Sorting Development o Eliminating Spontaneous Events and related aftershocks o Filtering events by various attributes

Aftershock Visualizations Visualization Team  Typical Scenarios- contained an average amount of aftershocks based on the five hundred simulations provided.  Minor Scenarios- contained less than the average number of aftershocks.  Substantial Scenarios- contained more than the average number of aftershocks. Substantial Aftershock Scenario for the Great Valley 4b Fault The team created videos that spatially demonstrated three different types of aftershock scenarios for each rupture.

Media Team Michael Matchen Michael Gonzalez Sarah Vargas Terri Mcintosh Michael Francisco Analysis Team Rachel Hausmann Sheila Bart Elena Pierce Georgina Campos Krystel Rios Thanh Le Development Team Ernest Scapini Ali Sellsted Mark Krant Brandon Green Greg Berger Francisco Raygoza Paulo Dos Santos Visualization Team Jackie Felix Ryan Meier Krista McPherson Rory Norman Paulo Dos Santos Dr. Tom Jordan Dr. Bob de Groot Nick Rousseau Mark Benthien