Ravaged by SARS: The Case of Hong Kong

Cumulative Number of SARS Cases in Hong Kong (as of Sept 11, 2003) InfectedDead Overall1, Medical Staff3866 Community1, Of which: Amoy Gardens 321>40

Daily New Number of SARS Cases (up to June 11, 2003) Source: HKSAR Government press releases.

Daily New Number of SARS Cases – Medical Staff (up to June 11, 2003) Source: HKSAR Government press releases.

Daily New Number of SARS Cases – Community Excl. Amoy Gardens (up to June 11, 2003) Source: HKSAR Government press releases. Suspension of classes Quarantine – contacts of confirmed patients Quarantine – contacts of suspected patients

Daily New Number of SARS Cases – Amoy Gardens (up to June 11, 2003) Source: HKSAR Government press releases. Residents of Block E were being moved into holiday villages

Cumulative Number of SARS Cases in Hong Kong (as of Sept 11, 2003) All deaths With chronic disease history No chronic disease history Overall Male Female Unknown220 Aged Aged

Total Mortality Rate due to SARS (up to June 11, 2003) Source: HKSAR Government press releases. Mortality Rate among All cases Mortality Rate among Discharged & Deaths

Total Mortality Rate due to SARS by Age Groups (as on Sept 1, 2003) Source: Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Hong Kong 299 deaths as at 1pm, Sept 1 Assumption: the age distribution of all cases is the same as that reported on Jun 6

Case Fatality Rate by Gender (as on Sept 1, 2003) Source: Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Hong Kong.

Case Fatality Rate by Age Groups (as on Sept 1, 2003) Source: Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Hong Kong.

SARS came at a bad time Real GDP Growth Nominal GDP Growth Consumer Price Deflation Unemployment Rate Property Price Index (Domestic) Budget Deficit (HK$bn) Fiscal Reserves (HK$bn)

Economic Fallout SARS is an exogenous NEGATIVE demand shock to the aggregate demand. Exports of travel services Imports of travel services InvestmentConsumption Spending Exports of goodsImports of goods OutputPrices UnemploymentBudget deficit ??

Losses from SARS Large Initial Estimates Hong Kong Federation of Restaurant and Related Trades Mid April 50 restaurants closed temporarily Hong Kong Retail Management Association Early April Retail sales fell by 50% Cathay Pacific Airways Mid April Estimated loss per day is US$3mn; Cancellation of flights rose from 10% in late-March to over 40% Cinema Association Mid April Revenue in March dropped by 47%

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2 Private consumption expenditure Government consumption expenditure Gross domestic fixed capital formation Exports of goods Imports of goods Exports of services Imports of services Gross Domestic Product GDP at current market prices ($bn) GDP at 2000 market prices ($bn) Gross Domestic Product (Year-on-year percentage changes)

Retail Sales Year 2003 Total Retail Sales Value Unit Price Index Volume Index HK$ Mn Year-on-year % change Jan17, Feb12, Mar14, Apr12, May13, Jun13, Jul14,

Unemployment and Under-employment 3-Month Average Ending On (Year 2003) UnemploymentUnder-employment Person (‘000) Rate (S.A) Person (‘000) Rate Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Composite Consumer Price Index Year 2003Index Year-on-year % change Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Cross-Border Truck Traffic (Mar 1, 2003 – Sept 8, 2003) Inbound Outbound

Number of Air Passenger Arrival and Departure (Mar 1, 2003 – Jun 30, 2003) Total Arrival Total Departure

Aircraft Movement at the Hong Kong Airport (Mar 1, 2003 – Aug 31, 2003)

Hong Kong Visitor Arrivals (2002 August – 2003 July)

Hotel Occupancy Rate (2003 January – 2003 July)

Stock Price of Cathay Pacific (Mar 1, 2001 – Jul 31, 2003)

Risk Premium of Hong Kong Dollar (Mar 1, 2002 – Jul 31, 2003) Note: Risk Premium = (1-Year Forward – Spot)  10,000 Source: Datastream.

Stock Market Indices Index Mar 12- Mar 31 Mar 12- Apr 30 Mar 12- May 30 Mar 12- Jun 30 Mar 12- Jul 31 Hong Kong: Hang Seng Index -2.71%-1.78%6.90%7.91%14.20% Hong Kong: HS Finance -2.63%0.95%9.51%8.91%12.90% Hong Kong: HS Utility 0.15%-1.27%2.15%2.51%2.93% Hong Kong: HS Property -4.68%-6.47%2.50% 14.88% Hong Kong: HS Commercial and Industrial -2.77%-3.31%6.46%9.69%17.95% China: Shanghai A2.45%3.25%7.02%0.90%0.26%

HK$ 11.8b Relief Measures  Salaries tax rebate: 2.3b  Concessions on rents, rates, water and other charges for a quarter  Temporary jobs and temporary training for unemployed workers: 430m  Loan guarantee fund: 3.5b  Disease control: 1.5b  Revival: 1b

Other Relief Packages On April 25, the Airport Authority offered a relief package worth HK$ 363m to airlines, retailers, caterers and franchisees badly hurt by SARS:  $100m worth of reductions for some charges  $263m worth of interest free deferred payments

Contingent Measures On May 25, less than 48 hours after the WHO lifted its travel advisory on Hong Kong, the Airport Authority announced a multi-million dollar revitalization package:  Airlines reinstating cancelled flights would enjoy a discount on landing charge, depending on load factor: Load FactorDiscount on landing charge Below 20%50% 21%-40%25% 41%-60%10%

Contingent Measures  For existing flights, more passengers carried (i.e. higher load factor) would result in higher discount in landing charge, also up to 50%. For example, a 10-percentage point increase in load factor will result in 10% discount on landing charge.

Main Lessons  Information dissemination  Infection control measures  Environmental hygiene  Cross-border cooperation