I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Headquarters U.S. Air Force 15 Sep 001 Air Force Weather Tropical Cyclone Preparedness and Response Brig Gen David L. Johnson Director of Weather Headquarters USAF

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 002 Overview Air Force Weather (AFW) What we do; core processes A key component of the national weather system Air Force and Army exposure to tropical cyclone threat Air Force tropical cyclone preparedness Air Force tropical cyclone response Air Force Weather (AFW) What we do; core processes A key component of the national weather system Air Force and Army exposure to tropical cyclone threat Air Force tropical cyclone preparedness Air Force tropical cyclone response U.S. Air Force Photo

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 003 What we do Terrestrial Weather Climatology Space Weather Percentage Ensuring DoD Operators can “Exploit the Weather” for Battle Ensuring DoD Operators can “Exploit the Weather” for Battle But… we can’t do our mission if our forces have been damaged or destroyed by a tropical cyclone. But… we can’t do our mission if our forces have been damaged or destroyed by a tropical cyclone. Air Force and Army

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 004 Core processes ALL ARE KEY TO PERFORMING OUR MISSION: DATA COLLECTION ANALYSIS TAILORING FORECASTING DISSEMINATION

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 005 AFW’s national role NWS Academia NAVY AFW Private Data Collection Analysis Tailoring Forecasting ! Dissemination

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 006 AFW’s national role Tropical cyclone reconnaissance in Pacific region; AF Weather Agency (AFWA) provides satellite fixes Partnered with Navy in Joint Typhoon Warning Center, protecting US Government interests in Pacific region, Indian Ocean, westward to east coast of Africa 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (AF Reserve Command) provides aerial reconnaissance AFWA provides regional forecast models worldwide AFW personnel collect vital data in tropical cyclone affected areas around the globe

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 007 A continuing role... Participation in the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) First launch ~2010 Multi-spectral imaging and sounding -- improved tropical cyclone reconnaissance Co-sponsor of National Research Council study on future radar capabilities beyond WSR-88D (NEXRAD) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model Fully coupled with land and sea surface, high resolution, improved physics, improved data assimilation Tool for track and intensity forecasting

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 008 Tropical cyclone threat US Air Force - 27 major installations, 450,000+ airmen, civilians, family members US Army - 22 major installations, 635,000+ soldiers, civilians, family members

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 009 Tropical cyclone threat NOAA Photo 12 major AF and Army installations and the Fleet threatened by typhoons 100,000+ airmen, soldiers, sailors, marines, civilians, and their family members Guam

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 0010 Preparing ourselves National Hurricane Operations Plan (OFCM) HURCON Growing Forecasters, building expertise Graduate education, formal training Improving operational techniques Base/Post-level preparation Detailed plans Pre-season exercises Education - base/post newspaper & TV Take the following actions... U.S. Air Force Photo

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 0011 Helping others prepare Carrying the hurricane awareness message to leaders and citizens Airshows Media Flights U.S. Air Force Photos

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 0012 Response - forecasting AFWA regional model predictions Send track and intensity forecasts to Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Available to TPC/NHC for consideration--additional integration this summer Forecasts and warns for all US Government interests from pole to pole Where TPC/NHC provides official track and intensity forecast, AFW provides tailored forecasts for bases/posts and other AF and Army decision makers

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 0013 Response - disseminating AFWA provides gridded forecast information to various agencies, particularly for inland flooding US Army Corps of Engineers, US Geological Survey, Korean Meteorological Agency Joint AF/Army Weather Information Network Bases and Posts Base cable TV, radio, telephone, security forces, loudspeakers across installation Point weather warnings via phone, fax, pager to locations without dedicated weather team Tailored to specific location and decision maker

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 0014 Local response HURCON 4: 72 hrs prior to 50 kt winds Essential personnel report for duty, unit control centers open, general preparations, prepare aircraft to evacuate, loose outdoor items moved inside HURCON 3: 48 hrs prior to 50 kt winds Shelters prepared, sandbags and plywood in place, food and water in place High value equipment sheltered/covered Begin aircraft evacuation, if appropriate

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 0015 Local response HURCON 2: 24 hrs prior to 50 kt winds Curtail non-essential activities, evacuate non- essential personnel if appropriate, shelters are ready, continue evacuation of aircraft if not complete, shelter non-essential vehicles HURCON 1: 12 hrs prior to 50 kt winds People report to shelters and evacuation completed, airfield closed, shelter emergency vehicles, possibly cut off electricity

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 0016 On the horizon Weather effects decision aids High resolution wind forecasting with MM5 or WRF for input into storm surge models Improving satellite analysis techniques WC-130J for 53rd Wx Recon Squadron NPOESS era beginning in ~2010 Future radar capabilities beyond WSR-88D Weather effects decision aids High resolution wind forecasting with MM5 or WRF for input into storm surge models Improving satellite analysis techniques WC-130J for 53rd Wx Recon Squadron NPOESS era beginning in ~2010 Future radar capabilities beyond WSR-88D SeaWIFs-Orbimage

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Sep 0017 Summary It takes the national weather TEAM to protect the lives and property of our citizens!