New Rules for Indian Politics? June 17, 2015 INSTITUTE facebook.com/idfcinstitutetwitter.com/idfcinstituteWe’re also on Dr. Milan Vaishnav, Associate, South Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
New Rules for Indian Politics? Milan Vaishnav | June 17, 2015
Was 2014 a game-changer?
2014 elections by the numbers 8,251 candidates 464 political parties 554 million voters Estimated $5 billion in campaign expenditures
First single-party majority since 1984 Source: Vaishnav and Smogard (2014)
“Tsu-NaMo”
Source: CSDS Post-Poll Reversal of personal fortune
The Indian voter in 2015 Source: Indian Express
1. BJP as new “pole”
National-regional equilibrium Source: Vaishnav and Smogard (2014)
A new central “pole” Source: Press Information Bureau
Congress on the decline
(Suit)-boots on the ground
Who controls the states?
2. Moving towards “It’s the economy, stupid”
“It’s the economy, stupid!”
Triumph of parochialism
A cautionary tale? “India has not reached a stage where the people would prefer a CEO to a politician to run the government.” -- K.C. Suri (2004)
Good economics ≠ good politics Source: Vaishnav and Swanson (2015)
Are things changing? “Since independence, many Indian voters have reflexively ejected politicians from office even when they had compiled decent records in power…Recently, though, Indian voters have started to reward good performance, especially in state-level politics.” - Arvind Subramanian (2009)
2009 Lok Sabha elections Source: Gupta and Panagariya (2014)
Good economics ≠ good politics Source: Vaishnav and Swanson (2013)
Post-2000s shift
Most important issue in 2014? Source: Lok Foundation (2014)
2014 NES post-poll Source: CSDS (2014)
3. Messy realities of ethnic voting
Social biases: positive & negative % of respondents demonstrating “bias” Source: Authors’ calculations based on Lok Foundation data
2014 BJP performance in north India Source: CSDS (2014)
“Rainbow coalitions” (Bihar 2010) Social group% vote for NDA Brahmin64 Bhumihar48 Rajput68 Other Upper Caste89 Yadav18 Kurmi-Koeri70 Other OBC63 Chamars41 Pasi25 Other SC52 Muslim27 Others47 Source: CSDS (2010) Upper Caste OBC SC Minorities
Degree of co-ethnic voting Source: Vaishnav (2014)
Can voters ethnically identify candidates? Source: Vaishnav (2014)
4. More choices, same options
Surge in political competition Source: ECI
Dynasticism among MPs Source: Chandra (2014)
“Princelings” in parliament Source: The Hindu (2014)
State-level dynasties Abdullahs(NC, Jammu& Kashmir) Badals(SAD, Punjab) Karunanidhis (DMK, Tamil Nadu) Hoodas (INC, Haryana) Paswans(LJP, Bihar) Patnaiks (BJP, Odisha) Pawars (NCP, Maharashtra) Reddys (YSRCP, AP) Scindias (INC/BJP, Rajasthan/MP) Thackerays (ShivSena, Maharashtra) Yadavs(RJD, Bihar) Yadavs (SP, UP)
Hereditary MPs (by age) Source: The Hindu (2014); French (2010)
Law-breakers & law-makers? Source: Author’s calculations based on ADR data
Par for the course Source: Author’s calculations based on ADR data
Male-female turnout convergence
Female representation is (slowly) growing
Conclusion Regionalization has stalled; BJP has become “central pole” – Blessing and a curse Aspirations of voters have changed, yet quality of candidates on offer has not Social biases remain entrenched even though their expression might be changing
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