Demystifying State Assessments Forest Service State & Private Forestry Redesign Version 2 December 10, 2008

Road Map S&PF Redesign Context State Assessments and Resource StrategiesState Assessments and Resource Strategies Geospatial Assessment Process S&PF Assessment Tool Supporting Efforts and Resources

Redesign Context State & Private Forestry Redesign –Landscape-scale Priorities and Impacts –Integrating programs, leveraging partnerships – pressures on our nation’s forests, S&PF resources and funds 2008 Farm Bill –Requires State Assessments and Resource Strategies –Replaces other planning requirements –2 years to complete (June 2010)

National Themes & Objectives: Conserve Working Forests Protect Forests from Harm Enhance Benefits from Forests State Assessments & Resource Strategies Integrated Program Delivery Competitive Resource Allocation Communicating and Demonstrating Results Programs and Staffing National Assessment: Communication Tool Plan Implement Report & Monitor Share Success & Adapt S&PF Redesign Components

Overview Three Components 1.Assessment: Analysis of forest conditions, trends, and threats. Identify priority areas 2.Strategy: long-term strategy for addressing issues in priority landscapes 3.Annual Report on Use of Funds

State Assessments Requirements Analysis of present and future forest conditions and trends on all ownerships Identify threats, benefits, and services Consistent with the S&PF national themes Delineate priority forest landscape areas w/in a State Identify multi-state of regional priority

Different Approaches States have flexibility in conducting their assessments Several states are framing their assessments using the Montreal Process Criteria & Indicators States can also use an issue-based approach

Regional or National Assessments Communication tools to highlight broad issues and accomplishments Standard data and approach needed –Creates a Common Level Playing Field –Enables Regional/National Summaries and Comparisons S&PF Data Strategy Team –Team of FS and State Experts –Identify data gaps and develop layers –Develop Multi-resolution standards and data –Support State & National assessments

Geospatial Analyses to Identify Priority Areas All ownerships (public and private) Urban to rural continuum Across themes, issues, programs May include multiple analyses Priority areas = opportunities for integration, collaboration Data Input Options: Geospatial, Qualitative, and Quantitative.

State Strategy Long-term strategies to address issues, threats, and priority areas identified in State Assessment Describe how state activities will address S&PF objectives Description of resources needed to achieve the Strategy Incorporate other state plans – wildlife action plan, community wildfire protection plans Address existing S&PF program planning requirements

Additional Guidance Coordination –State Technical Committees, Wildlife Agencies, Federal land mgmt agencies, Tribes, other partners Timeline –Due June, 2010; Updates every 5 years Approval Process –State Forester and Secretary of Ag

Regional Support & Guidance NASF & FS Regions are providing support to states NAASF: Developed guide and framework documents –Many states using C&I approach SGSF: Texas is developing a pilot assessment WFLC: hiring a West-wide assessment coordinator/support person

Geospatial Assessment Process Example Geospatial Assessment Process – Available to State Partners

S&PF Assessment Tool –Tool currently being developed by FS with ESRI –Tool can be used for National, regional, or state assessments –The tool follows the process outlined below Geospatial Assessment Process

S&PF Assessment Tool Overview of Functionality –Tool allows for uploading of state data layers and aggregation –Assign weights to data layers and themes (if desired) –Run different scenarios –View output

Standard GIS Weighted Overlay Process –Combination and weighting of multiple factors Advantages: –Integrative Process –Transparency and Repeatability –Interactivity and Scalability –Comparability Across Geographic Regions If standard data are used. Geospatial Assessment Process

Can build on Forest Stewardship Spatial Analysis Project (SAP) The Data Layers from SAP can be used in the State Assessments The weighted overlay analysis used in SAP is similar to this process Geospatial Assessment Process

S&PF Assessment Tool Process Steps: 1.Identify Themes/Objectives and CriteriaIdentify Themes/Objectives and Criteria 2.Rank & Weight Theme CriteriaRank & Weight Theme Criteria Themes can also be ranked and weighted 3.Assemble Standard DataAssemble Standard Data 4.Data (Criteria) AggregationData (Criteria) Aggregation 5.Weighted Overlay - Combine Layers by ThemeWeighted Overlay - Combine Layers by Theme Change weights and Re-Run if Necessary 6.GovernanceGovernance Geospatial Assessment Steps

Step 1. Identify Themes, Objectives and their Criteria

National Themes & Objectives Themes and Objectives are based on Section 8001 of the 2008 Farm Bill – National Priorities for Private Forest Conservation and were approved by the RIC. ThemeObjective Conserving Working Forest Landscapes Identify and conserve high priority forest ecosystems and landscapes. Actively and sustainably manage forests. Protect Forests From Harm Restore fire-adapted lands and reduce risk of wildfire impacts. Identify, manage and reduce threats to forest and ecosystem health. Enhance Public Benefits Associated with Trees and Forests Protect and enhance water quality and quantity. Improve air quality and conserve energy. Assist communities in planning for and reducing wildfire risks. Maintain and enhance the economic benefits and values of trees and forests. Protect, conserve, and enhance wildlife and fish habitat. Connect people to trees and forests, and engage them in environmental stewardship activities. Manage and restore trees and forests to mitigate and adapt to global climate change.

Themes & Objectives States may add their own objectives States should decide the relative importance of the national objectives States should define the objectives to address their specific State issues - this is “identifying criteria”… –Requires Subject Area Expert Involvement

Identify Criteria To Identify Criteria: –Define Questions for each Objective, for example… Identify and conserve high priority forest ecosystems and landscapes. Identify, manage and reduce threats to forest and ecosystem health. Protect & Enhance Water Quality and Quantity Which ex-urban forest areas in our State are most likely to develop to urban densities in the next 5 years? Where are urban forests in our State most threatened by emerald ash borer? Where can agroforestry techniques along waterways be applied to improve water quality most effectively in our State? Composite Maps Already Exist for Some of These –WUI, Fire, etc. these act as Criteria for each objective

S&PF Assessment Tool Add multiple themes You can also just add just theme and weight all criteria

Step 2. Rank and Weight Theme Criteria (And Themes if Desired)

Ranking/Weighting Determine Goals/Priorities What is most important in meeting theme goals? Fire, Insect & Disease, Water? Subject area bias, how do we prevent this? –Those doing the ranking should have influence and oversight over multiple disciplines. –Broader agency goals

Ranking/Weighting Framework for Ensuring Consistency of Ranks and Weights… Powerful Tool for Running Scenarios “Delphi Process” for Decision Support

Ranking/Weighting Ranking Process: 1.Identify what is most important –Assign a value of one 2.Compare everything else to what is identified as most important –How much less important is each factor?…use the 10-point scale 3.Calculate weights

Ranking/Weighting Each criterion within a theme is ranked based on its importance (influence). DescriptionComparison Rating Most Important1 1/2 Moderately Less1/3 1/4 Strongly Less1/5 1/6 Very Strongly1/7 1/8 Extremely Less1/9 1/10 UnsuitableN/A 10-Point Ranking Scale Focus on words rather than numbers…computer processes the numbers.

Ranking/Weighting Criteria Most Important Moderately Less Import. Strongly Less Import. DescriptionNumber 10 Point Ranking 1 1/5 1/3 Calculate Weights by Hand Convert Fractions to decimals 1/1 = /3 = /5 = 0.20 Sum the decimals 1.53 Divide each decimal by the total 0.33/1.53 = or 22% 0.2/1.53 = 0.13 or 13% 1/1.53 = 0.65 or 65%

Ranking/Weighting Criteria Calculate Weights by Hand Convert Fractions to decimals 1/1 = /5 = 0.20 Sum the decimals 2.2 Divide each decimal by the total 1/2.2 = or 45% 0.2/2.2 = or 10% 1/2.2 = or 45% Most Important Strongly Less Import. DescriptionNumber 10 Point Ranking 1 1/5 1 Also Most Import. Round Up or Add an Extra Point All weights must sum to 100% Another Example…

Ranking/Weighting Assign Weights To Theme Criteria Development Woody Biomass Forest Fragmentation Fire Potential Insect & Disease Risk Wildland Urban Interface Critical Habitat 65% 22% 13% 50% 75% 25% 45% 10% 45% Conserve Working Forest Lands Protect Forests From Harm Enhance Public Benefit from Trees & Forests Overall Composite (if needed) Assign Weights To Themes If Desired…

S&PF Assessment Tool Input your weights for themes and layers

Ranking/Weighting Use the weighting/ranking process to identify data needs… –Sets priorities for data development

Step 3. Assemble Standard Data

Standard Data 1km and some 30 meter National Data Available to States –Use for National Assessments –States without data can also use these States should use their own fine resolution data if available. –Many states have lots of data available

Standard Data S&PF Redesign Data Web Page –Will have 7 nationally consistent data layers for download and use –Links to other national/regional data sources S&PF Data Strategy Team –Team of FS and State Experts –Identify data gaps and develop layers –Develop Multi-resolution standards and data –Support State & National assessments

Standard Data Assign Data-Layers… Development Woody Biomass Forest Fragmentation Fire Potential Insect & Disease Risk Wildland Urban Interface Critical Habitat Conserve Working Forest Lands Protect Forests From Harm Enhance Public Benefit from Trees & Forests to Themes (if desired) 2006 Nat. Insect and Disease Risk Map 2000 Wildland Fire Potential Map Development Risk Map Woody Biomass Map Forest Fragmentation Map Wildland Urban Interface Map Critical Habitat Characteristics Map

S&PF Assessment Tool Upload and name your data layers

S&PF Assessment Tool Create different scenarios – allows for trying out different weights, layers, etc. Reclassify data layers – allows user to decide “high priority” values

Step 4. Data (Criteria) Aggregation

Data Aggregation Difficult to work with “pixels” on a Landscape Level –Aggregated map a better communication tool Not all layers overlap Preventing Unintended Uses of the Data –“My Favorite Pixel” Local Decisions Still Based on Local Data/Information

Data Aggregation Many Types of Potential Aggregation Units –Watersheds and Ecoregions at Various Scales two Primary Examples… WUI: 1km PixelsWUI: 8-Digit HUC

Data Aggregation Recommended Data Aggregation Steps: 1.Identify high priority (highest risk, best potential for rehabilitation etc.) areas –recode pixels to a value of one 2.Calculate the proportion of each aggregation unit that is made up of high priority areas –Entire unit vs. forested areas 3.Using “Equal Area” divide the proportions into three classes (high-med-low). –Assign a value of 0 (low), 1 (med), and 2 (high)

Data Aggregation Example: Areas at risk of losing % of it’s forests to insect and disease activity in the next 15 years have the best rehabilitation potential. These areas are flagged and the proportion of forest falling into these areas is calculated by watershed. High Priority Areas Proportion (0 – 43% of Forest) Equal Area Classes

Aggregation Unit SmallLarge Unit Size 964 Priority Area 816 Percent Priority 89%25% Not Priority Priority L E G E N D Why use proportion or percent of aggregation unit instead of the amount of area of concern? To ensure all watersheds have an equal chance of being represented. Data Aggregation High Low

S&PF Assessment Tool Add screen shot of uploading aggregation layer

Step 5. Weighted Overlay

Weighted Overlay Steps: 1.Multiply each aggregated layer by its criterion weight 2.Sum the results by Theme 3.Multiply the summed results for each Theme by the Theme weight (if desired) 4.Sum the Theme results producing a single composite map (if desired)

Weighted Overlay Criteria Multiply by Potential Medium = 1 Low = 0 High = 2 0 x.22 = x 2.2 = x 1 = 0.65 Layer Weight 65% or % or % or 0.22 Most Important Strongly Less Import. Description Moderately Less Important Example: A Watershed has… Sum for Overall Watershed Potential ________ 0.91, rounded to 1 (Medium)

Weighted Overlay Sample Assessment

Development65% Woody Biomass 22% Fragmentation 13% Conserve Working Forest Land L E G E N D HighModerateLow Sample Assessment

State Example - Using different Aggregation units L E G E N D HighModerateLow Conserve Working Forest Lands Protect Forests from Harm Enhance Public Benefits Composite

Weighted Overlay Evaluate Individual Results –Easy to see what is driving the maps Change Weights and Re-Run Outputs –Scenarios (Gaming) Different Aggregation Units Swap in Higher Resolution Data

S&PF Assessment Tool View status of analysis and edit steps

Step 6. Governance

Value-Driven Process Decisions made by leadership Limitation of Data Data Improvement and Development Urban & Community Forestry scaling issues Long-term vs. short-term management Risk vs. Opportunity

Governance Define the Questions Clear Process Weighting Methodology Process Facilitator Subject Matter Expert Involvement –with GIS knowledge –Tool could help eliminate some of the GIS need

S&PF Assessment Tool Uses Process Outlined in this Presentation Version scheduled to be available in February/March 2009

Supporting Efforts S&PF Data Strategy Team For More Information: National guidance and other info on S&PF Redesign available at: ml ml