Ise 216 Chapter 2 question hour

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Presentation transcript:

Ise 216 Chapter 2 question hour 24.02.2010

Q 2.10 In Dave Pelz’s Bible, the author attempts to characterize the skill of a golfer from a spesific distance in terms of the ratio of the error in the shot and the intended shot distance. For example, a five iron that is hit 175 yards and is 20 yards off target would have an accuracy rating of 20/175=0.114, while a sand wedge hit 60 yards that is 10 yards off target would have an accuracy rating of 10/60=0.1667 (the lower the rating the better.) to what evaluation method disscussed in this section is this most similar? Whay does this evaluation method make more sense in golf than absolute or squared errors?

Q 2.11 A forecasting method used to predict can oppener sales applies the following set of weights to the last five periods of data: 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.4. Determine the following: The one step ahead forecast for period 9. B) the one step ahead forecast that was made for period 6. Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Observation 23 28 33 26 21 38 32 41

Q 2.13 Two forecastings are given below: Compare the effectiveness of these methds by computing MSE, MAD, MAPE. Do each of measures of frecasting accuracy indicate that the same forcasting technique is best? If not, why? Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Real values 223 210 256 289 320 340 430 390 375 134 112 110 190 150 225 550 490 525

Q 2.16 month demand Jan 89 July 223 Feb 57 Aug 286 Mar 144 Sep 212 Apr 221 Oct 275 May 177 Nov 188 June 280 Dec 312 Determine the one step ahead forecasts for the demand for January 2000 using 3-, 6- and 12-month moving averages.

ANSWER Q.2.16 MA (3) forecast: 258.33 MA (6) forecast: 249.33 MA (12) forecast: 205.33

Q 2.24 Observed weekly sales of ball peen hammers at the town hardware store over an eight week period have been 14, 9, 30, 22,34,12,19,23 . Suppose that three week moving averages are used to forecast sales. Determine the one step ahead forecasts for week 4 through 8. Suppose alpha=0.15. find forecasts for week 4through 8 by exp. smoothing. Based on MAD, which method did better? What is the exponential smoothing forecast made at the end of week 6 for the sales in week 12?

ANSWER 2.24 a) Week MA(3) Forecast 4 17.67 5 20.33 6 28.67 7 22.67 8 21.67 b) and c Week ES(.15) Demand MA(3) |err| |err| 4 17.67 22 17.67 4.33 4.33 5 18.32 34 20.33 15.68 13.67 6 20.67 12 28.67 8.67 16.67 7 19.37 19 22.67 0.37 3.67 8 19.32 23 21.67 3.68 1.33 6.547540 7.934 MAD-ES MAD-MA ES(.15) had a lower MAD over the five weeks. d) It is the same as the forecast made in week 6 for the demand in week 7, which is 20.67.