Demand Analysis & Sales Forecasting Dr. Dawne Martin Business Marketing October 11, 2011.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

CH:6 MARKET SEGMENTATION METHODS OF SALES FORECASTING

Advertisements

Slides 13a: Introduction; Qualitative Models MGS3100 Chapter 13 Forecasting.

Impact of Sales Forecasts on Budgeting Sales forecasts Sales budget Production budget Direct labor materials and overhead budgets Cost of goods sold budget.

Target Markets: Segmentation and Evaluation

Chapter 5. MARKET MEASUREMENT BA L.P.Chew

5-1 Copyright ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display.

Marketing Plans n Strategic Marketing Plans – based on careful examination of a firm’s core business strategy and primary marketing objectives n Tactical.

7-1. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 7 Market Potential And Sales Forecasting.

Forecasting 5 June Introduction What: Forecasting Techniques Where: Determine Trends Why: Make better decisions.

Forecasting Ross L. Fink.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2002 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. C H A P T E R Market Potential and Sales Forecasting 6.

Principles of Supply Chain Management: A Balanced Approach

Chapter 8. Organizational Demand Analysis BA L.P.Chew

Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Beni Asllani University of Tennessee at Chattanooga Forecasting Operations Chapter 12 Roberta Russell & Bernard.

Copyright 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Chapter 8 Supplement Forecasting.

The Strategic Role of Information in Sales Management

FORECASTING Operations Management Dr. Ron Lembke.

Chapter 5 DEMAND FORECASTING Prepared by Mark A. Jacobs, PhD

Demand Planning: Forecasting and Demand Management

Measuring Market Opportunities Potentials and Forecasts.

Alternatives to Sales Budgeting Process. Impact of Sales Forecasts on Budgeting Sales forecasts Sales budget Production budget Direct labor materials.

4 - 1 Course Title: Production and Operations Management Course Code: MGT 362 Course Book: Operations Management 10 th Edition. By Jay Heizer & Barry Render.

LSS Black Belt Training Forecasting. Forecasting Models Forecasting Techniques Qualitative Models Delphi Method Jury of Executive Opinion Sales Force.

Samuel H. Huang, Winter 2012 Basic Concepts and Constant Process Overview of demand forecasting Constant process –Average and moving average method –Exponential.

Group No :- 9 Chapter 7 :- Demand forecasting in a supply chain. Members : Roll No Name 1118 Lema Juliet D 1136 Mwakatundu T 1140 Peter Naomi D 1143 Rwelamila.

Operations and Supply Chain Management

Chapter 4 Forecasting Mike Dohan BUSI Forecasting What is forecasting? Why is it important? In what areas can forecasting be applied?

Estimating Potentials and Forecasting Sales

Estimating Potentials and Forecasting Sales

1 Copyright © 2000 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. (1) A Developing Forecasts Appendix 5 Developing Forecasts.

Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Measuring and Forecasting Demand

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

TURNING MARKETING INFORMATION INTO ACTION

Sales Management 8 Estimating Demand. Time Sales 0 Market Potential Industry Forecast Company Potential Company Forecast (Industry Forecast ≤ Market Potential)

CHAPTER 4 MARKET SEGMENTATION, POSITIONING AND DEMAND PROJECTION.

1-1 McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved C H A P T E R FIVE Measuring Market Opportunities: Forecasting and Market Knowledge.

Target Markets: Segmentation and Evaluation

1 Ch 3: Forecasting: Techniques and Routes. 2 Study objectives After studying this chapter the reader should be able to: Evaluate the suitability of several.

Demand Planning: Forecasting and Demand Management CHAPTER TWELVE McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Advertising As Marketing Tool. Marketing Process ► Four major stages:  Marketing environment analysis  Target market and positioning process  Market.

CHAPTER 5 DEMAND FORECASTING

Organizational Demand Analysis Chapter 6. Forecasting Why is forecasting important? Why is forecasting important?

Irwin/McGraw-Hill  The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc Forecasting Chapter 11.

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 7–17–1 What Is a Market? Requirements of a Market –Must need or desire a particular product.

Part I THE BIG PICTURE Sales Management Resources: Estimating Potentials and Forecasting Sales.

Marketing Planning.

Appendix 4 Developing Forecasts. Forecast A forecast is a prediction for a future period.

Developing Sales Forecasts. Sales Forecasts Objectives: Objectives: Determining sales force size. Determining sales force size. Designing territories.

4.05 Part III Forecasting sales for a marketing plan. SEM2.

Trade Management Module 5 Sales Management Model Learning Objectives:

Welcome to MM305 Unit 5 Seminar Prof Greg Forecasting.

Business Forecasting 1 Dr. Mohammed Alahmed (011) Dr. Mohammed Alahmed.

Sales Management 8 Estimating Demand. Time Sales 0 Market Potential Industry Forecast Company Potential Company Forecast (Industry Forecast ≤ Market Potential)

MARKET APPRAISAL. Steps in Market Appraisal Situational Analysis and Specification of Objectives Collection of Secondary Information Conduct of Market.

FORECASTING Kusdhianto Setiawan Gadjah Mada University.

1 FORECASTING MODELS AND METHODS Dr. Geurts Lecture.

MARCH 15, 2012 MKGT 241 DR. DAWNE MARTIN Sales Forecasting.

CHAPTER 12 FORECASTING. THE CONCEPTS A prediction of future events used for planning purpose Supply chain success, resources planning, scheduling, capacity.

Copyright © 2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. All rights reserved.Developed by Cool Pictures and MultiMedia PresentationsCopyright.

Dr. Bea Bourne 1. 2 If you have any troubles in seminar, please do call Tech Support at: They can assist if you get “bumped” from the seminar.

Sports & Entertainment Marketing II 4.05d Forecasting sales for a marketing plan.

Welcome to MM305 Unit 5 Seminar Forecasting. What is forecasting? An attempt to predict the future using data. Generally an 8-step process 1.Why are you.

6-1. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Market Potential and Sales Forecasting Chapter 06.

Strategy and Sales Program Planning

Marketing Management 2nd Edition

Market Potential and Sales Forecasting

6 C H A P T E R Market Potential and Sales Forecasting

Module 2: Demand Forecasting 2.

Presentation transcript:

Demand Analysis & Sales Forecasting Dr. Dawne Martin Business Marketing October 11, 2011

Administrative Things Exam 2, October 27 Part III of Project Due 10/31 For next time: Chapter 6 & 7

Market Segmentation Approaches What are the criteria for a good market segment? What are the primary bases of segmentation used in B2B marketing? When are they used? How is the market segmented in your industry?

Types of Forecasts Sales Forecast Market Potential Industry Sales Sales Potential Market Forecast (Market Demand)

Questions Why do we need to estimate market demand? What are the uses for sales forecasts? Why is it important that they are as accurate as possible?

Examples of Forecasts Used in Business Marketing Sales Management Decisions Assessing market opportunity & allocating resources Evaluating competitive performance Planning for manufacturing and inventory Assessing the size of the sales force Type of Forecast Market potential & market forecast Sales potential Sales forecast Sales forecasts

Forecasting Approaches: Top-Down Forecast of general economic & business conditions for country Market potential for relevant industry Factors affecting company’s share of total industry sales Sales potential for company as % of industry sales Company sales forecast Zone, region, district, territory & account forecasts

Forecasting Approaches: Bottom-Up Sales person’s forecast of accounts Combined into territory forecasts Combined into District, Region, Zone forecasts Company Sales Forecasts

Determining Market & Sales Potential Statistical Series Assumes there is a good relationship between demand and statistical series Example: # employees and number of uniforms Single Series Method Based on NAICS or market segments Steps Select Statistical series Relate series to demand through usage factor Estimate series for desired time period Potential = usage factor X value of series for year Multiple Series Methods – for more complex demand Multiple regression techniques

Determining Market & Sales Potential Market Research Uses Estimate demand from few buyers Estimate demand for new products Supplement data from statistical series Methods Surveys – Institute for Supply Chain Management Manufacturing -- h ttp:// h ttp:// Non-Manufacturing -- Non-Manufacturing Focus groups Customer visits

Forecasting Methods: Association/Casual & Time Series Association/Causal Correlation Regression Models Leading Indicators earch/national_economy/ earch/national_economy/ Econometric Models Input-Output Models Time-Series Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Adaptive Filtering Time-Series Extrapolation Times Series Decomposition Box-Jenkins

Forecasting Methods: Judgement & Counting Methods Naïve Extrapolation Sales Composite Jury of Executive Opinion Scenario Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis Delphi Technique Historical Analogy Counting Methods Market Testing Market Survey

Summary Demand Analysis (Market Potential) and Sales forecasts are used throughout the organization Choosing a forecasting technique is based on: Who and how it will be used Time frame Data available Costs/Benefits Various methods may be used, but should combine top-down & bottom- up

Problem Biomedical researchers at a Midwest medical school notes that jaundice is seen in approximately 60 percent of infants. To quickly diagnose the problem, the researchers have developed a device that provides a one-handed test for jaundice. A key benefit from the product is for dark-skinned infants. How would you assess the market potential for this product?