The 10-Year Remote Sensing Industry Forecast TRB Conference December 12, 2001 Jim Plasker Executive Director, ASPRS

ASPRS 4American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 4Mission: “…advance knowledge and improve understanding of mapping sciences and to promote the responsible applications of photogrammetry, remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and supporting technologies.” 4Membership: approximately 7000 equally split among government, academia and commercial sectors

10-Year Remote Sensing Industry Forecast Topics 4Background 4Review Phase I - Industry Baseline 4Phase II - User Needs/Requirements l (Very) Preliminary Survey Results

Background In August 1999, ASPRS and NASA's Commercial Remote Sensing Program (CRSP) entered into a 5-year Space Act Agreement (SAA), combining resources and expertise to: Baseline the Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) Develop a 10-Year RSI market forecast Provide improved information for decision makers Develop attendant processes

Forecast Participants NASA NOAA USGS Space Imaging Kodak SPOT EarthData PAR Autometrics Spencer-Gross American Forests RAND Pictometry Leading Edge Lockheed Martin Geomatics Eaglescan Landcare Avn. University of Arizona University of Utah University of Missouri RIT University of Southern Mississippi ASPRS NSGIC MAPPS

Remote Sensing Industry Definition Platforms & Sensors End-User Data Collection Data Processing Hardware Software Etc. Industry Intermediaries Support Elements VARs Consultants Etc. Business Segments Phase I Phase II

Forecast Process Findings Conclusions $ Time Forecast $ 20% 21% 17% Focus Group SurveyInterview Literature Search ANALYSIS

Forecast Plan Phase ICharacterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000) Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users and Determination of Their Needs/Requirements (Jan 2002) Phase IIIValidate I and II (Dec 2003) Technology Assessment Phase IVMarket Forecast (Dec 2004) Project Plan

Data Collection to Date 4Phase I l Interviews: 36 (Commercial CEO level) l Web Surveys:437 (Commercial, Government, Academia) l Closed Envelope Revenue Survey: 43 (Commercial, CEO/CFO level) 4Phase II l Interviews134 (Managers, Users, SLT Government) l Focus Groups 4 (NSGIC, Local GIS, ASPRS/MAPPS, URISA) l Web Surveys > 700+ and counting l Closed Envelope Revenue Survey: Ongoing (Commercial, Senior level)

Topics 4Review Phase I - Industry Baseline l Results 4Phase II - User Needs/Requirements l Preliminary Survey Results

CRSI Sales 1998 to 2010 Forecast Baseline Based on calculating the average real annual growth rate from (respondent estimates) and applying that rate to the out-years Actual Projected

Market Segment as % of Sales CY 2000 % of Sales 41% 17% 15% 9% 4% 2% <1% National/Global Security Mapping Civil Government Transportation Environmental Utilities Agriculture Exploration/Resources Forestry Telecommunications Entertainment/Media Insurance Real Estate Other

Primary Platform Use CY 2000 Aerial Space

Selected Barriers to Growth Technology: Innovations needed to... Speed availability of information (vs. data) Provide information valued by user Develop systems that integrate data and provide multi-disciplinary solutions Lower costs Workforce education Demand for entry-level personnel exceeds supply Insufficient Level of Customer RS Knowledge Applications based Marketing and Demonstrations may help CEO Interview Findings

Topics 4Review Phase I - Industry Baseline l Results 4Phase II - User Needs/Requirements l Preliminary Survey Results

Planned Cross-cut Analyses Demographics 4Sectors l Commercial l Academia l Government Ü Federal Vs. SLT (Local) 4 Users Vs. Managers 4 Tool Used Vs. Tools Needed 4 Research & Development 4 Education Levels 4 Training Rates Characteristics 4Imagery Types 4Accuracy/Resolution 4Timeliness 4Applications/Market Segments 4Collection Means 4Coverage 4Data Layers 4Sources/Providers

Respondents by Sector Government Sector respondents make up nearly half of the sample 708 Completed responses

Government Sub-Sector of Employment Number of Responses Sub-Sector SLT: 60% Local: 35% Fed: 35%

Use/Plan To Use Remote Sensing Data/Information/Software >700 Respondents, providing 1600 Responses The majority of Respondents identified at least two categories Data and Information are used more than Software Estimated short term growth: 8.0% Data: 9.3% Information: 8.0% Software: 6.5%

Manager Vs. User Perspective Fairly balanced perspective 75% Users 81% Managers Also balanced by sectors

Educational Levels Number of Responses Well educated workforce vs. Lack of adequately developed workforce – a numbers issue!

Degrees by Discipline 60% have had course work related to remote sensing Top “Instructor” disciplines per Phase I: Geography, Forestry, Civil Engineering, Photogrammetry, Geology, Environmental Science  Not a bad fit!

Application Areas in which Respondents Work Phase I Most Active Markets: Mapping/Geography Environment Civil Government National/Global Security Transportation Where is the Growth Potential?

Meeting Application Area Needs Application Areas Number of Responses In general, half of the user needs are being fairly well met, but a significant number (28%) are poorly met This is generally true across all sectors 49% 28% 22%

Importance of RS Data/Information Characteristics 4Users of data/information collected from both Aerial and Space Platforms agree that Spatial Resolution and Geolocation Accuracy are the most important characteristics 4Cost is an important characteristic but not most important. However, from the surveys it appears that cost is a major driver for Manager-Users who purchase the data/information Interview Results

Elevation Accuracy: Use Vs. Need There is an indicated need for increased elevation accuracy

Elevation Accuracy: Government Level of Elevation Accuracy Number of Responses

Elevation Accuracy: Government Level of Elevation Accuracy Number of Responses There appears to be a decided need for increased elevation accuracy in the Government Sector ~ 3m

Horizontal Accuracy Number of Responses Level of Geo-location Accuracy

Horizontal Accuracy Number of Responses Level of Geo-location Accuracy Pending further analysis, it appears that there is a general need for improved geo-location accuracy of 1meter or better

Spatial Resolution

Pending further analysis, it appears that there is a need for higher spatial resolution of less than 1 meter.

Timeliness Requirements Timeliness requirements tend to cluster. Government Sector has more interest in Real Time than other Sectors Nearly 60% of Commercial Sector interest clusters between 1-3 Days and 1-3 Months

Use of Imagery Largest increases in use: -Hyperspectral -LIDAR -Digital Color -Digital B/W -Color IR Film Aerial Imagery is used 65% of the time. Multi-spectral imagery is the most used type of imagery collected by space platforms Digital is the most used imagery format

Conclusions 4The CRSI market is growing at about 13% per year (Effects of 9/11/01?) l About $2B in 2001, growing to about $6B in 2010 (Constant CY 2000 $) l Aerial and Satellite markets do not seem to be in competition 4The CRSI is fragmented and populated with lots of small companies l Does not necessarily mean low entry barriers. 4Imagery collected from Aerial Platforms is used twice as frequently compared to imagery collected from Space Platforms 4High Resolution, Geo-location Accuracy and Cost are market drivers; however, information value/content has a strong influence and can overcome cost issues

Conclusions (Continued) 4Digital is the preferred format 4Companies typically operate in more than one business segment 4Government agencies are the largest potential Customer group (about two-thirds of revenues through 2006 are F/S)

(Continued) 4In all Sectors, the barriers to growth appear to be funding, education, training, and awareness; not available technology. 4Currently, across all Sectors, the most Active Applications or Market Segments are: Mapping/Geography Environment Civil Government National/Global Security Transportation Conclusions

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