“Dinero Diablos” Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics April 21, 2010 Presented by: Mark Robertson Founder and Managing Partner – www.manifestinvesting.com.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

M ONEY W ORKS FOR W OMEN A T C URTIS M EMORIAL L IBRARY R EADING A VALUE LINE REPORT.

Advertisements

Howling in the Twilight Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics February 17, 2010 Presented by: Mark Robertson Founder and Managing Partner –

RATIO ANALYSIS 3 types Profitability – is the organisation earning more than it spends. Liquidity – is there enough money to cover all bills. Efficiency.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Identify the most important features of stock  A Form of Equity.

Health Care Sector Matt Diffley Marc Travis. Recommendation Short- Term Short- Term Underweight compared to the S&P Underweight compared to the S&P Currently.

Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 8 Stock Valuation.

Chapter 8 Stock Valuation.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Tutorial Part II Wednesday, February 7th, 2007.

11 CHAPTER FOURTEEN FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF COMMON STOCKS.

C15- 1 Learning Objectives Power Notes 1.Basic Analytical Procedures 2.Solvency Analysis 3.Profitability Analysis 4.Summary of Analytical Measures 5.Corporate.

GET RICH QUICK CO. Financial Statement Ratio Analysis: Profitability Long-Term Financial Position Short-Term Financial Position.

Successful Long-Term Investing: The Journey The Journey October 15, 2011 Presented by: Mark Robertson Founder & Managing Partner, Manifest Investing

1 CHAPTER FOURTEEN FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF COMMON STOCKS.

Copyright 2003 Prentice Hall Publishing Company1 Chapter 11 Financial Statement Analysis.

Chapter 8 Stock Valuation. Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.8-2 Valuing a Company and Its Future Value of a stock depends upon.

1 © Copyrright Doug Hillman 2000 Analysis and Interpretation of Financial Statements.

Financial Statement Analysis

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Adding diversity to our financial sector holdings.

Financial Statements Economics 98 / 198 Fall 2007 Copyright 2007 Jason Lee.

Chapter 14.  To make informed decisions about a company  Generally based on comparative financial data 2Copyright (c) 2009 Prentice Hall. All rights.

Financial Statement Analysis

Stock Picking Process Stock Picking Process Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC. Stock investing involves risk including loss of.

Chapter Thirteen Financial Statement Analysis Copyright © 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McGraw-Hill/Irwin.

FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS UNIT 12 Analysing financial statements involves evaluating three characteristics of a company: 1. its liquidity 2. its profitability.

Measuring Profitability James Dow For GBUS 600 Spring 2004.

Student Managed Fund Undergraduate Portfolio April 24, 2003 Scott Bores Eric Burns Kevin Conlon Ellen Huebner Andreas Miliotis Lisa Lin Javed Singha Lucas.

EM-Trade | Agenda Interviews Poker Tournament Fantasy Stock Market

Historical Performance Analysis Analysts:. 3-Year Compound Average Growth Rates.

Copyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Financial Statement Analysis Chapter 14 McGraw-Hill/Irwin.

MT 217 Unit 3 Seminar.

“Moving The Cheese” Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics January 20, 2010 Presented by: Mark Robertson Founder and Managing Partner –

CHAPTER THREE Financial Statement Analysis J. D. Han.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Slide 1 Preliminary Press Releases Releasing Financial Information Quarterly and Annual Reports Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

1 Hicorp, Inc. A Study of Earnings Per Share Bloomington Group Jeff Attwood, Jean Baird, Susan Krieger, Kent Miller, Terry Nichols, Randy Short September.

Financial Ratios Clicker Quiz. What is this ratio? Market Price Per Share Earnings Per Share A. Inventory Turnover B. Accounts Receivable Turnover C.

Relative Valuation Methods. Car Example How much are you willing to pay for a new Lexus?

What is Raymond James Investment Services?  The Chief Executive Officer for Raymond James is Paul Reilly.  Their Home location is 880 Carillon Parkway,

Information Technology Finance 724/824 SIM Class Christopher Moran Suresh Ramasubramanian Sean Ramsey.

Chapter 2 Financial Ratio Analysis. 2-2 Example 2.1 Problem  Rylan Enterprises has 5 million shares outstanding.  The market price per share is $22.

Ratios and Accounting A 1 to 1 training course (get it!)

Types of Ratio Analysis FTime Series, Historical, or Trend Analysis  Example: FCross-Sectional or Peer Comparison Analysis  Example:  Sources of Comparative.

SE Michigan BI Model Club: Portfolio Management Process Discussion Presented by: Team B July 17, 2010.

Preparing SSG Using ToolKit 4.0 Features By Felicia Ware-Joyner.

Buckle (BKE) Stock Analysis August 20, 2009 Presented by: Mark Robertson.

Fourth Edition 1 Financial Statement Analysis. Fourth Edition 2 Outline 1.Financial statements 1.Income statement and margin analysis 2.Ratio analysis.

Research and Evaluation 4.1 INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES.

Copyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Financial Statement Analysis Chapter 14 McGraw-Hill/Irwin.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Analysis April 14, 2010 Presented by: Mark Robertson.

Industry Analysis Shahadat Hosan Faculty, MBA Program Stamford University Bangladesh 15 June 2011.

How to Read the Stock Market Page  Highest and lowest price a share of the stock has sold for in the past 52 weeks.  Example ABC: High was 49  Example.

Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.

Change Proposal - Intro Reason: Income Fantasy Portfolio contains too many Canadian bank stocks and lacks prudent diversification Too many people’s single.

1 MT 483 Investments Unit 5: Ch 8 and 9. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 8-2 Steps in Valuing a Company Three steps are necessary.

Chapter Nine Financial Statement Analysis © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education.

Company Name Stock Trading Symbol. Company History Founder: Incorporation Date: IPO Date: Initial Sales Price: Current Sales Price:

BASIC STOCK PRESENTATIONS 101 Cincinnati Model Investment Club (CinMIC) Mar 19, 2016 Rich Alden.

Cognizant Technology (CTSH) Stock Analysis December 10, 2009 Presented by: Mark Robertson.

© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Learning Objectives © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. LO3Perform efficiency analysis of a business.

0 Mark November 7, 2012 PORTFOLIO DESIGN & MANAGEMENT Dashboard Diagnostics (November 2012) MICNOVA:

Stock Picking Process Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Historical Performance Analysis

Financial Statement Analysis

Analysis and Interpretation of Financial Statements

Analysis Example Financial Ratio

Financial Statement Analysis

Financial Statement Analysis

Financial statement analysis and interpretation

Chapter 4 Financial Statement Analysis

Founder and Managing Partner –

Lesson 13-2 SHARE OF NET INCOME ASSIGNED TO PREFERRED AND COMMON STOCK

Presentation transcript:

“Dinero Diablos” Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics April 21, 2010 Presented by: Mark Robertson Founder and Managing Partner –

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 2 Club History & Characteristics Club Name: “Dinero Diablos” Location: Northern California # of Members: 16 (All-Male) Founded: TBD The club uses a set of rules for selling: (1) Sell Zone, (2) Sales/EPS stagnant 3-4 quarters, (3) U/D = 1, (4) Relative Value > 150%, (5) <5-7% Total Return, (6) Down trends in margins, (7) Stock price decline for no apparent reason. Simplify. Treat decisions from a total portfolio perspective. Core holdings: Sell if PAR is less than money market rates. Non-Core holdings: Sell if PAR is less than market average.

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 3 Dashboard View: (1) Returns, (2) Quality, (3) Growth

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 4 Sector Diversification

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 5

6 Position Size Range Recommendations …

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 7

8 Challenge: EZCORP (EZPW)... Auto-Sell?

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 9 Summary (Points of View): EZCORP (EZPW) MANIFESTValue LineS&PMorningstar Return Forecast1.6% ($22.70)-1% [1] ($17.75) Quality59.3B Financial Strength57 (5% of 6.22%) B++A Growth Forecast14%8.5% (per sh) Profitability11.9% (Net) 14.6% (ROE) 12.9% (Net) Valuation10.0x 10.7x ($17.70) Overall RatingWeak Hold (48) StockCharts RSI = 65.9 PnF Sentiment: “Bullish” (Price Objective: $24) CASPI = 97.8% April 21, 2010 [1] – Low VL 3-5 Year Forecast StockCharts RSI = 65.9 PnF Sentiment: “Bullish” (Price Objective: $24) CASPI = 97.8% April 21, 2010 [1] – Low VL 3-5 Year Forecast

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 10 Sales Growth & 5-Year Forecast (EZPW) 1. We’ve added 2010E and 2011E (ACE). 2. Note the “bends”, lower expectations for Cycle characteristics? 3. Note the shift in shares outstanding in 2009.

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 11 Sales Growth & 5-Year Forecast (EZPW) 1. Switching to Sales/share Year historical growth aligns with VL. 3. VL forecasts a decline to 8.5% (influence of 2011?)

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 12 % Net Margin Profitability ‘Report Card’ and Forecast (EZPW)

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 13 Profitability ‘Report Card’ and Forecast (EZPW)

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 14 Valuation Characteristic and Trend (EZPW) A projected average P/E in the realm of 10x seems pretty reasonable. 10 Years 5 Years

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 15 [Modified] Preferred Procedure (EZPW) Sales (Trailing 12-Mo)673 X Net Margin (%)11.9% / Shares (M)48.7 Earnings Per Share$1.65 X P/E Ratio13.8x Stock Price (4/20/2010)$22.70 Income Statement (4/21/2010) Income Statement (4/21/2015) Sales1268 X Net Margin (%) 12% / Shares (M)52.0 Earnings Per Share $2.93 X P/E Ratio (Proj Avg) 10.0x Stock 13.5% 5.2% + 0.0% (Ann. Yield) 5.2% = Projected Annual Return (PAR)

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 16 Technical Analysis (EZPW) Institutions hold 78.9% of shares A single individual holds 100% of voting shares.

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 17 Ask the Audience: Would you sell EZPW? Yes, Sell! No. Hold, I feel lots of momentum with this one.

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 18 Any holdings qualified as accumulation targets?

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 19 Accumulation Candidate: FTI Consulting (FCN) Growth=11% Profitability=10% P/E=18x... PAR ~20% QR=74.7

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 20 Accumulation Candidate: ITT Educational (ESI) Growth=16% Profitability=21% P/E=17x... PAR ~19% QR=78.5

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 21 Add 100 shares of FCN and 40 shares of ESI...

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 22

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 23 Sold EZPW, Added ESI & FCN... And Bought ORCL

Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 24 Think Results. Impact. Before and After. Bigger Picture. Before.After. Converting the challenge stock to cash and accumulating a couple of high-return (high-quality) holdings with some non-healthcare shopping nudges the portfolio in the right direction.