Economic Forecast for Northeast Louisiana Presented to the Business Outlook Summit Monroe, Louisiana March 29, 2007 Dr. Robert Eisenstadt University of Louisiana-Monroe Dr. John Francis Louisiana Tech University

The measured labor force in NE Louisiana has fallen: change in labor force = -5.6% in employment = -2.0%

Unemployment, however, is not the issue it used to be….. (figures from July 2006 household survey, not seasonally adjusted)

Employment gains and losses (establishment survey)

Data from the Job Vacancy Survey for NE Louisiana: What a difference a year makes. Employment category (total employment) Job Vacancy Survey: reported vacancies in change in employment to (unfilled "vacancies") or excess hires education and health services (32713)627119(508) Trade, transportation utilities (22199)521300(221) Professional and business services (8955) Other services (3177)24536(209) Financial activities (6301)188(27)(215) Construction (5665) Manufacturing (12526)92(877)(969) Leisure and hospitality (9117) Natural resources/mining (2644)29(226)(255) information (2108) 035 Public administration (6246)12(14)(26)

Unable to find qualified applicants = 20.7% Shortage of people in occupational category = 11.0% Not enough applications submitted = 14.6% Applicants will not work for offered compensation = 8.5% Applicant cannot pass drug or background check = 7.3% No difficulty at all = 8.5% In trying to fill this position what is the greatest difficulty you have faced? From the 2005 (quarter 2) Job Vacancy Survey

Skill Composition of NE Louisiana Labor Force

Comparison of Skills with State and National Levels

Composition of Labor Force

Rankings of Proportion of State Labor Force without a High School Diploma

Ranking of Proportion of State Labor Force with Some Training Beyond High School

Labor Force Participation Rate Louisiana – 71.3% Ark-LA-Miss – 73.7% United States – 78.3% LA is well below the national average

Ranking of State Labor Force Participation Rates

Labor Force Participation Rates by Education Groups

Wage Inequality Why Does Wage Inequality Matter? Equity Some evidence that it reduces overall consumption and economic growth

90-10 Wage Ratios

90-50 Wage Ratios

Distribution of Weekly Wages

: 4.7% increase : 9.9% increase : 1.3% increase : 6.5% increase Post-Katrina gains in retail sales are strong :

2004 Per capita personal income Ouachita: $26,595 Lincoln: $23, change=18.8% change=15.0%

Year over year percentage (3-month running average) change in estimated retail sales for Ouachita Parish

Car, van and light truck sales are quite stable and show some gains

2006 permits for construction projects are well ahead of 2005 levels in both number, square footage, and real estimated value.

Existing home sales (all homes > $50,000) Homes sold are for Ouachita and contiguous parishes. NE LA Board of Realtors. (constant 2006 $.)

Existing Home Sales: Closing price > $200,000

Home sales: closing price $50k - $200k

Ouachita and Lincoln Parishes gain population in 2006 Ouachita = +1,551; Lincoln=+539

Thank God for Babies……………. 27,262 babies (8.8% of 2000 population) were born in NE Louisiana between 2000 and 2005.

Looking ahead to 2008…