Supply and demand: Cemig GT and the National Grid Belo Horizonte, May 28, 2012 Marcus Vinícius de Castro Lobato
Supply and demand in Brazil’s grid (1) Source: PMO of May 2011; analysis by Cemig; Presented at Apimec Based on expectation of 5% annual GDP growth over 2011–15. As seen from 2011 Average MW Surplus % Surplus, MW Reserve Thermal Hydro Market 2
Supply and demand in Brazil’s grid (2) As seen from 2012 Source: PMO of May 2012; analysis by Cemig. Based on expectation of 4.4% annual GDP growth over 2012–16. Average MW Surplus % Surplus, MW Reserve Thermal Hydro Market 3
CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply Conventional sources Available for sales or tradingIntermediation (transferred to Cemig Trading) Free Market sales – new contractsFree Market sales (free consumers, and traders) To be defined (conc. to be renewed for the 2 nd time)Regulated market sales forecast Regulated Market sales to distributors Standard operational agreement Average MW Own resources Probable renewals Negotiations in progress Purchases subject to conditions Secondary supply as transacted in spot market in 2010; estimate for 2011 Copmponents APIMEC
Average MW Own resources Probable renewals Negotiations in progress Purchases subject to conditions Secondary supply as transacted in spot market in 2011; estimate for 2012 Copmponents Available for sales or tradingIntermediation (transferred to Cemig Trading) Free Market sales – new contractsFree Market sales (free consumers, and traders) To be defined (conc. to be renewed for the 2 nd time)Regulated market sales forecast Regulated Market sales to distributors Standard operational agreement CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply Conventional sources APIMEC
APIMEC 2011 Available for sales or tradingIntermediation (transferred to Cemig Trading) Free Market sales – new contractsFree Market sales (free consumers, and traders) To be defined (conc. to be renewed for the 2 nd time)Regulated market sales forecast Regulated Market sales to distributors Standard operational agreement Secondary supply as transacted in spot market in 2011; estimate for 2012 Secondary supply as transacted in spot market in 2010; estimate for 2011 Average MW Own resources Probable renewals Negotiations in progress Purchases subject to conditions Own resources Probable renewals Negotiations in progress Purchases subject to conditions CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply Conventional sources 6
Average MW Purchases – Traders Sales with negotiation in progress Purchases – Wind plantsProbable renewals Purchases – Small ThermalSales already made Purchases – Small Hydro APIMEC 2011 CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply Incentive-bearing sources 7
MW-médios APIMEC 2012 CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply Incentive-bearing sources Average MW Purchases – Traders Sales with negotiation in progress Purchases – Wind plantsProbable renewals Purchases – Small ThermalSales already made Purchases – Small Hydro Purchases with conditions Purchases in progress 8