The Value of a Draft Pick April, 2012

Using data, math, and reasoning to gain a competitive edge. Bill James: “The search for objective knowledge about [hockey]” What is analytics?

1.Corsi – Shots directed on goal minus shots directed on your own goal (proxy for possession) 2.Qualcomp – how good is the opposition that a player typically lines up against (how a coach is using a player) 3.Qualteam – how good are the teamates a player typically lines up with What are advanced stats?

4.PDO – a combination of team shooting percentage and save percentage when a player is on the ice (proxy for luck) 5.Zone Start – percentage of offensive zone faceoffs when a player is on the ice 6.Predicted Goals Scored – how many goals a player or team should have scored given shot location and an average goalie (attempts to remove luck from player performance) What are advanced stats?

Pavel Datsyuk vs Henrik Sedin StatisticPavel DatsyukHenrik Sedin League Rank Corsi (27 v 33) QaulComp (22 v 50) QualTeam (425 v 8) ZoneStart48%71%(430 v 3) PDO

What are the options? Advanced stats services: Coleman Analytics (Mike Smith) – player performance by game situation Sports Analytics Institute – full service based on scoring chances, game situation, cost/win, etc. Blueline Analytics – player contract and value analysis

What are the options? Advanced stats services: PUCKS – ranks players by different skillsets (skating, shooting, etc.) Decision Lens – Advanced game stats (where goals are scored from, etc.) tied to game video Puck Prospectus – Player and team projections aimed at bettors

What are the options? Consultants/Freelancers: Gabe Desjardins, Vic Ferrari, etc. – advanced stats experts who evaluate trades, players, etc. on a fee for service basis In-house stats experts: Several teams employ analytics experts full-time to evaluate different aspects of their business

San Jose – have been using advanced analytics since the lockout. Dean Lombardi bragged that they built San Jose on Analytics and he would do the same in LA Calgary – hired a Director of Video and Statistical Analysis from Minnesota, and the Bruins stats guru John Weisbrod this year Montreal – have use advanced statisticians to evaluate contracts since 2007 Who’s using it?

Pittsburg – subscribe to SAI Buffalo – Have analytics professionals on their payroll Montreal – have use advanced statisticians to evaluate contracts since 2007 Vancouver –began using analytics soon after Mike Gillis took over Boston – rumored to have a very active analytics group Tampa – starting to invest in analytics Atlanta/Winnipeg –using analytics Who’s using it?

Player evaluation – offensive and defensive value, playing context Team evaluation – tactics, tendencies, cap efficiency Player negotiation Training and preparation Procurement and projection Tactics What can it be used for

Traditional stats…

…versus Advanced Stats

Defence-Independent Save Percentage Slap shots on Brodeur at even strength Wrist shots on Thomas during power plays *Taken from “DIGR: A Defense Independent Rating of NHL Goaltenders using Spatially Smoothed Save Percentage” by Michael Schuckers

Goalie Rankings 2011 *Taken from “DIGR: A Defense Independent Rating of NHL Goaltenders using Spatially Smoothed Save Percentage” by Michael Schuckers RankNameDIGRRawSV% 1Tim Thomas Cory Schneider Roberto Luongo Jonas Hiller Ilya Bryzgalov Cam Ward Marc-Andre Fleury Devan Dubnyk Corey Crawford Carey Price

Player Value Metrics RankNamePTSName+/-Name Point ShareNameGVT 1Daniel Sedin104Zdeno Chara33Daniel Sedin14.3Daniel Sedin26.2 2Martin St. Louis99David Backes32Corey Perry13.3Corey Perry23.3 3Corey Perry98Kevin Bieksa32Lubomir Visnovsky12.8Jonathan Toews20.8 4Steven Stamkos91Toni Lydman32Steven Stamkos12.2Martin St. Louis20.4 5Jarome Iginla86Matt Carle30Martin St. Louis11.3Alex Ovechkin20.1 6Alex Ovechkin85Adam McQuaid30Alex Ovechkin11.2Jarome Iginla19.8 7Teemu Selanne80Andrej Meszaros30Jarome Iginla11Ryan Kesler19.3 8H Zetterberg80Daniel Sedin30Henrik Sedin10.6Lubomir Visnovsky19.2 9Brad Richards77Dan Hamhuis29Christian Ehrhoff10.4Anze Kopitar Eric Staal76Nathan Horton29Ryan Kesler10.4Steven Stamkos Claude Giroux76Brian Campbell28Alex Goligoski10.2Henrik Sedin18 12Jonathan Toews76Milan Lucic28Sidney Crosby10.1Alex Tanguay Thomas Vanek73Jeff Carter27Shea Weber10.1Teemu Selanne Ryan Kesler73A. Burrows26Zdeno Chara10Brad Richards Patrick Marleau73Henrik Sedin26Teemu Selanne10Sidney Crosby Patrick Kane73Anze Kopitar25Keith Yandle9.9Claude Giroux Anze Kopitar73Brad Marchand25Kris Letang9.8David Backes Loui Eriksson73Jonathan Toews25Jonathan Toews9.8Thomas Vanek Bobby Ryan71Nicklas Backstrom24Dustin Byfuglien9.6Michael Grabner Patrick Sharp71Ryan Kesler24Drew Doughty9.6Jeff Carter16.6

Player Value Metrics RankNamePTSName+/-Name Point ShareNameGVT 1Daniel Sedin104Zdeno Chara33Daniel Sedin14.3Daniel Sedin26.2 2Martin St. Louis99David Backes32Corey Perry13.3Corey Perry23.3 3Corey Perry98Kevin Bieksa32Lubomir Visnovsky12.8Jonathan Toews20.8 4Steven Stamkos91Toni Lydman32Steven Stamkos12.2Martin St. Louis20.4 5Jarome Iginla86Matt Carle30Martin St. Louis11.3Alex Ovechkin20.1 6Alex Ovechkin85Adam McQuaid30Alex Ovechkin11.2Jarome Iginla19.8 7Teemu Selanne80Andrej Meszaros30Jarome Iginla11Ryan Kesler19.3 8H Zetterberg80Daniel Sedin30Henrik Sedin10.6Lubomir Visnovsky19.2 9Brad Richards77Dan Hamhuis29Christian Ehrhoff10.4Anze Kopitar Eric Staal76Nathan Horton29Ryan Kesler10.4Steven Stamkos Claude Giroux76Brian Campbell28Alex Goligoski10.2Henrik Sedin18 12Jonathan Toews76Milan Lucic28Sidney Crosby10.1Alex Tanguay Thomas Vanek73Jeff Carter27Shea Weber10.1Teemu Selanne Ryan Kesler73A. Burrows26Zdeno Chara10Brad Richards Patrick Marleau73Henrik Sedin26Teemu Selanne10Sidney Crosby Patrick Kane73Anze Kopitar25Keith Yandle9.9Claude Giroux Anze Kopitar73Brad Marchand25Kris Letang9.8David Backes Loui Eriksson73Jonathan Toews25Jonathan Toews9.8Thomas Vanek Bobby Ryan71Nicklas Backstrom24Dustin Byfuglien9.6Michael Grabner Patrick Sharp71Ryan Kesler24Drew Doughty9.6Jeff Carter16.6

Player Value Metrics RankNamePTSName+/-Name Point ShareNameGVT 1Daniel Sedin104Zdeno Chara33Daniel Sedin14.3Daniel Sedin26.2 2Martin St. Louis99David Backes32Corey Perry13.3Corey Perry23.3 3Corey Perry98Kevin Bieksa32Lubomir Visnovsky12.8Jonathan Toews20.8 4Steven Stamkos91Toni Lydman32Steven Stamkos12.2Martin St. Louis20.4 5Jarome Iginla86Matt Carle30Martin St. Louis11.3Alex Ovechkin20.1 6Alex Ovechkin85Adam McQuaid30Alex Ovechkin11.2Jarome Iginla19.8 7Teemu Selanne80Andrej Meszaros30Jarome Iginla11Ryan Kesler19.3 8H Zetterberg80Daniel Sedin30Henrik Sedin10.6Lubomir Visnovsky19.2 9Brad Richards77Dan Hamhuis29Christian Ehrhoff10.4Anze Kopitar Eric Staal76Nathan Horton29Ryan Kesler10.4Steven Stamkos Claude Giroux76Brian Campbell28Alex Goligoski10.2Henrik Sedin18 12Jonathan Toews76Milan Lucic28Sidney Crosby10.1Alex Tanguay Thomas Vanek73Jeff Carter27Shea Weber10.1Teemu Selanne Ryan Kesler73A. Burrows26Zdeno Chara10Brad Richards Patrick Marleau73Henrik Sedin26Teemu Selanne10Sidney Crosby Patrick Kane73Anze Kopitar25Keith Yandle9.9Claude Giroux Anze Kopitar73Brad Marchand25Kris Letang9.8David Backes Loui Eriksson73Jonathan Toews25Jonathan Toews9.8Thomas Vanek Bobby Ryan71Nicklas Backstrom24Dustin Byfuglien9.6Michael Grabner Patrick Sharp71Ryan Kesler24Drew Doughty9.6Jeff Carter16.6

Principals behind GVT 1.The objective of hockey is to win 2.The key to winning is goal differential 3.Assigning goal differential to players gives us player value 4.Approximately 6 goals in differential is worth one win

Kovalchuk vs. Kaleta Adds ~15 goals/yr over past three years -Equates to ~2.5 wins -Paid ~$7.5 million -$3.5 million / win -Draws ~ +30 penalties/yr -Equates to ~5 goals, 0.8 wins -Paid ~600K -$0.72 million / win

Let’s talk about the draft

Detroit Red Wings GVT Max GVT by round

Detroit Red Wings GVT Detroit GVT Drafting

Minnesota Wild GVT Minnesota GVT Drafting

Edmonton Oilers GVT Edmonton GVT Drafting

San Jose Sharks GVT San Jose GVT Drafting

Analysis of Point Share and GVT Team Drafting Efficiency (Round 3+)

San Jose Draft GVT Distribution NHL Draft GVT Distribution Marginal players Good playersStarsSuperstars

San Jose Draft GVT Distribution Marginal players Good playersStarsSuperstars

Edmonton GVT Distribution Edmonton Draft GVT Distribution Marginal players Good playersStarsSuperstars

Detroit GVT Distribution Detroit Draft GVT Distribution Marginal players Good playersStarsSuperstars

Minnesota GVT Distribution Minnesota Draft GVT Distribution

What about player origin?

Minnesota GVT Distribution Average GVT by League RankLeagueTotal GVT# Of Picks Average GVT90 th Percentile 1CZECH SLOVAKIA SWEDEN RUSSIA NCAA FINLAND QMJHL WHL OHL BCHL USHS SWITZERLAND USHL AJHL USAN

Who Should the Oilers Draft This Year?

*Max GVT in first seven years of NHL career GVT*

Defensemen vs. Forwards