LAO Fiscal Outlook Legislative Analyst’s Office November 27,
LAO What Is the LAO? Created in 1941 Nonpartisan, Independent Staff to the Legislature Provides Fiscal and Policy Analysis— Particularly on Budget-Related Matters 1
LAO May Revision 2012 Ended in Deficit Projected Budget Gap Total Actions Needed = $15.7 Billion 2
LAO State General Fund Budget Spending by Program,
LAO Actions to Close the Budget Gap 4 (In Billions) Amount Tax Revenues From Proposition 30$8.5 Related Proposition 98 Increase -2.9 Other Revenues 0.4 Expenditure Actions 4.6 Borrowing/Funding Shifts/One-Time Revenues 5.8 Total Solutions $16.4
LAO Key Things to Watch: Risks in Budget Plan Proposition 30—$8.5 billion RDA funds—$3.2 Billion Revenues 5
LAO The State’s General Fund: Revenues 6
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LAO November LAO Fiscal Forecast Forecast Revenues for Five Years Forecast Expenditures for Five Years Subtract 9
LAO A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens 10
LAO Home prices now recovering after steep decline 11
LAO Building Activity is forecast to recover 12
LAO Taxable sales are forecast to grow modestly 13
LAO Jobs in California Recovering Slowly 14
LAO LAO projections of GF Condition is no corrective actions are taken 15
LAO Forecasted Operating Surpluses Beginning in
LAO Upcoming LAO Publications Updated Local Government Timeline Property Tax Primer Insufficient ERAF Cal FACTS 17
LAO Other Resources First name. Last Marianne O’Malley Brian Uhler (local finance) Chas Alamo (sales and property tax forecast) Legislative Analyst’s Office: