ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring Manfred Klöppel (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF) (thanks to Vincent-Henri Peuch and Dick Dee, both ECMWF) Manfred.Kloeppel@ecmwf.int www.ecmwf.int

ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring ECMWF’s long-term strategy MACC – Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate HE-01 Tools and Information for Health Decision-Making ERA-CLIM (reanalysis) CL-01 Climate Information for Adaptation MACC and ERA-CLIM are both FP7 projects funded by the EU

The ECMWF Strategy 2011–2020 Principal Goals Complementary goals Provide Member States’ National Meteorological Services with reliable forecasts of severe weather across the medium-range. Meet Member States’ requirements for high-quality near-surface weather forecast products such as precipitation, wind and temperature. Complementary goals Improve the quality of monthly and seasonal-to-interannual forecasts. Support climate monitoring with state-of-the-art reanalyses of the Earth- system. Contribute towards the optimisation of the Global Observing System. Enhance support to Member States’ national forecasting activities by providing suitable boundary conditions for limited-area models. Deliver global analyses and forecasts of atmospheric composition.

provide data & information on Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate – Interim Implementation MACC-II is the third in a series of FP6 & 7 EU projects (since 2005). It is coordinated by ECMWF and the consortium comprises 36 partners from 13 countries. It runs till July 2014, when GMES operations are expected to start. Weather services Atmospheric environmental services Long-range pollutant transport Air quality Dust outbreaks Solar energy UV radiation Climate forcing by gases and aerosols • • • Environmental agencies provide data & information on

Exciting satellite observations for atmospheric composition are currently available CO2 (GOSAT, ACOS/JAXA/NIES) SO2 (GOME-2, SACS, BIRA/DLR/EUMETSAT) The four figures illustrate the variety of data available today, covering reactive gases (sulfur dioxide, top left, and nitrogen dioxide, bottom right), aerosol (bottom left) and greenhouse gases (top right). Aerosol Optical Depth (MODIS, NASA) NO2 (OMI, KNMI/NASA)

From combining observations and model forecast… IASI CO (LATMOS/ULB) Extending the data assimilation methods used for NWP, assimilation of these data allows to produce analyses, which combine information from the model and the observations. Analyses are 3d-fields, that are useful in particular… MOPITT CO (NASA) MACC-II global system relies on ECMWF variational 4d-var scheme, assimilating a range of remote-sensing data to deliver analyses (illustrated here for Carbon Monoxide, a tracer of combustion sources).

… to global forecasting… … to base forecasts. Here the case of carbon monoxide is illustrated. CO is emitted by biomass burning and combustion processes in general, but is also an oxidation product of the Volatile Organic Compounds. It is a very important tropopheric species and studying its long-range transport is useful to understand global pollution issues. MACC-II provides daily 5-day global forecasts with a horizontal resolution of 80 km and a time resolution of 3 hours, using a “chemistry-enabled” version of ECMWF’s forecast model.

… to regional ensemble forecasts NO2 SO2 PM10 The global system drives the regional models providing European-scale air quality forecasts. Adressing Air Quality issues requires much higher resolution than possible at global scale. MACC-II Air Quality forecasts are available at a resolution of ~15km over Europe, while the global system run at ECMWF runs currently at ~80km. Regional Models Global Model Observations

Retrospective Service Provision http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu Retrospective Service Provision Reanalysis of Atmospheric Composition (2003-2011) Aerosol Optical Depth 30 years ozone layer records Methane CO2 and CH4 surface flux inversions 700+ users

Near-Real-Time Service Provision http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu Near-Real-Time Service Provision 90+ users and obsAIRve European Air Quality More on MACC-II achievements in the talk by L. Wald in the late afternoon session today Global Pollution Biomass burning emissions Aerosol UV index

Climate monitoring by reanalysis Re-analysis of the recent past: Global datasets for monitoring climate change ERA-15 ERA-40 ERA-Interim ERA-20C ERA-40: 6-hourly gridded data products from 1957-2002 ERA-Interim: From 1979 to present, monthly updates near real-time ERA-CLIM: A 3-year FP7 project Preparing a new atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th Century Contributes to the GEO 2012-2015 work plan: CL-01 C1 Extension and Improvement of the Climate Record Resolution: ERA-40: 125 km ERA-Interim: 80 km ERA-20C: 40 km Figure from ERA-Interim, July 2010, heat wave in Russia Reanalyses provide global picture of the atmospheric condition

ERA-CLIM: A 3-year FP7 project coordinated by ECMWF To prepare input observations, model data, and data assimilation systems for a new atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century ERA-CLIM will deliver: Data rescue (both in-situ and satellite) New reanalysis products Improved data quality Improved data access Chart shows ERA-CLIM consortium New reanalysis products: reanalysis over a whole century Improved data quality: by identifying data biases can improve quality control of the data Improved data access: better data servers, freely available data

Reanalyses provide a complete picture of recent trends example: temperature Deg C/decade, 1979-2001

Summary Reanalysis of in-situ observations and satellite data produces a complete, comprehensive and coherent record of the recent climate Increased confidence in climate change science and models’ ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century Sectors to benefit include: health, industry, water, climate, weather, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity and disaster mitigation ‘Increase models’ ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century’: by comparing with global reanalysis

Summary Reanalysis of in-situ observations and satellite data produces a complete, comprehensive and coherent record of the recent climate Increased confidence in climate change science and models’ ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century Sectors to benefit include: health, industry, water, climate, weather, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity and disaster mitigation The FP7 ERA-CLIM project: European contribution to GEO