1 Modeling Future Senior/Elder Populations: Predicting Size, Ages, and Gender Makeup Presented By: Senior Mobility Initiative on Cape Cod (SMICC) Dr. Alice E. Smith Warren K. Smith, BSEE, ASA Saturday, March 10, Joint Conference of The American Society on Aging and the National Council on Aging

2 Senior/Elder Population Modeling An analytical tool that assists researchers to predict the future number, ages, and gender of senior/elder populations (state, region, county, city, town, or ZIP Code area). Developed to assist senior/elder mobility services planners, such estimates are invaluable to anyone needing estimates of age 55+ populations for up to 30 years into the future.

3 Why Do Predictions Ourselves? Why not use State Data Center predictions? – County- and Town –level only available – Crude knowledge of in/out migration Cape Cod’s justification: – ZIP Code-level population counts needed – “Retirement migration” needs to be included – Need “What If’ modeling capability

4 Simple Population Model Starting Population (1980 Census) Ending Population (1990 Census) Births Deaths In Migration Out Migration “Cohort-Component Method” (Developed by U.S. Census Bureau)

5 Model Components Starting Population: U.S. Census Counts by 5-Year Age Group Births: Birth Certificate data Deaths: Death Certificate data Migration: In ?? Out ?? Ending Population: U.S. Census Counts By 5-Year Age Group

6 Dilemma Problem: We Don’t Have Accurate Migration Data! Solution: We Have To Calculate It

7 Concept of “Net Migration” To Model a Population, Knowing The Net Number of In-Migrants and Out-Migrants by Age Group is Sufficient This Fact Simplifies Our Calculation

8 Calculating Senior/Elder Net Migration Deaths Starting Population (1980 Census) Ending Population (1990 Census) Births Net Migration Cohort-Component Method (Can Ignore For Senior/Elder Age Ranges)

9 Solving For Net Migration of Seniors/Elders Net Migration: Ignoring Births, Net Migration is Simply The Difference Between Starting Population Minus All Deaths and The Ending Population Count; Where: P End = P Start - D + M Net Therefore: M Net = P Start - D - P End

10 Studied Past Population Dynamics Historic Senior/Elder Population Dynamics: Determined Growth History For EACH Age Group: Ages 40-44, 45-49, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85+ Calculated 20-Year AVERAGE Migration Factor For Each Age Group 1980 Census Census Census Cohort-Component Method Cohort-Component Method (“Boomers” in their 30’s and 40’s)(“Boomers” in their 40’s and 50’s)

11 Predicting Future Populations Death Rates (by Age Group) Starting Population Counts (by Age Group) Historic 20-Year AVERAGE Migration Rates (By Age Group) Ending Population Counts (By Age Group) Microsoft EXCEL Spreadsheet Model “What If” Factors

12 Result: Population Predictions (Numbers of Persons by Age Group)

13 Town-Level Predictions

14 Q & A ** Discussion **

15 Contact Information Dr. Alice E. Smith –President, Family-Centered Institute, Inc. 66 Massasoit Trail Brewster, MA Warren K. Smith –Chairperson, Senior Mobility Initiative on Cape Cod c/o Family-Centered Institute, Inc. 66 Massasoit Trail Brewster, MA

16 Introductory Remarks: Good Morning. My name is Dr. Alice Smith and I am here with my colleague (and husband), Warren to tell you about a method that we have been using up on Cape Cod in Massachusetts to predict what our future senior/elder population will look like—10-, 15-, 20-, even 30- years into the future. Briefly, we put historic Census statistics and other key demographic data into a computer spreadsheet (Microsoft EXCEL) and developed formulas that MODEL how our senior/elder population has changed in the past—the dynamics of it. From this retrospective MODEL, and some thoughtful assumptions about future changes, we have been able to predict the basic charac- teristics of our FUTURE senior/elder population—from 2010 out to the year How do we use these predictions? Planners on Cape Cod are beginning to use this information as they develop long-range plans for a variety of programs and services for our rapidly growing “Baby Boomer” population—or should I say, “Senior Boomers”? Our local Area Agency on Aging (Elder Services of Cape Cod & Islands) and several of our municipal Councils on Aging are using these population predictions in their strategic planning. Also, we have had great interest from our regional emergency planning organizations, as well as Fire Chiefs and municipal EMS/EMT service planners. One of our larger towns (Falmouth) is using our population predictions to justify building a new multi-million dollar Senior Center. In addition, Grant writers are beginning to use this information as they develop county, state, and federal funding proposals. In our own research, we use these population predictions as the basis of what we call our Senior Mo A bility Indicators (presented in our Workshop yesterday morning). These Indicators are a set of twenty mobility characteristics that serve to generally describe the ability of seniors and elders to “get up, get out, and get about” in their community—again, a tool for planning future senior/- elder programs and services. Now, my husband Warren is going to tell you briefly about how the future population prediction MODEL was developed, how it works and show you a few examples of how it is being utilized. Warren....