Creating Reasonable 10-Year Enrollment Projections Supported by Insightful Analyses Session 43 SAIR 2008 Ed Rugg, Kennesaw State University For handouts & slides, see Professional Presentations at

So, What’s Next Fall’s Enrollment Going To Be? We’re typically confident that we have the tools and techniques to answer that question fairly accurately. We’re typically confident that we have the tools and techniques to answer that question fairly accurately.

And What Is It In 10 Years ?  Did you say 10 years?  My head hurts just thinking about it.

Maybe we need some help Seek guidance from above Try lady luck Bring in a consultant

Here are some new ideas for solving the projection problem that were reasonable and insightful for KSU administrators

Analyzing the Big Picture Identifying patterns in 4 decades of enrollment growth Annual (12 mo) trends in new student intakes and stopout readmissions Compounding effects for continued growth after new intakes level off

40 Years of Enrollment Growth at KSU 37 record-breaking fall enrollments

Focusing on the Last Five Years of Fall Enrollment Points Sharply Upward  Fall-to-fall 12% increases in Fall 2002 and again in Fall 2003 ignited rapid growth  KSU’s first on-campus housing opened, & beginning freshmen rose 36% in Fall 2002  Total enrollment jumped up nearly 6,000 (42%) from 13,951 in Fall 2001 to 19,854 in Fall 2006, growing an average of 7% per yr

Rosy Outlooks Expect Exponential Growth Rosy Outlooks Expect Exponential Growth Traditional-age undergraduates appeared to be booming as new on-campus student housing more than doubled quickly Consultants for the University System predicted huge enrollment gains at KSU by 2020 Administrators adopted a rosy outlook for future enrollment growth

Upon Closer Examination… a longer historical analysis of enrollment trends tells a different story of slower growth in the future a longer historical analysis of enrollment trends tells a different story of slower growth in the future

Four Decades of Growth at KSU Historical Student Percent Period Growth Growth 1st Decade , % 2nd Decade , % 3rd Decade ,241 72% 4th Decade ,317 58% 5th Decade ,000 – 9, %

% Growth--Then and Now First Decade new students = 1% increase Avg annual increase = 13% (mean), 10% (median) Highest 38% Lowest 0% 6 double-digit % increases Fourth Decade new students = 1% increase Avg annual increase = 5% (mean), 3% (median) Highest 12% Lowest -2% 2 double-digit % increases

Growth Conditions in Fall 2002 & 2003 Were Unique First on-campus student housing opened in 2002 with upscale 4BR/4BA apartments Post-9/11 recession and high unemployment in 2002 sent older students back to college at KSU students back to college at KSU Post-911 psychology of staying closer to home favored this metropolitan university

Contrary to wishful thinking… Percentage increases in enrollment growth over the next decade are likely to continue to decline as they have over the last four decades Percentage increases in enrollment growth over the next decade are likely to continue to decline as they have over the last four decades

Upon Closer Examination… a broader analysis of annual (12 mo) new student intakes points to slower growth and informative insights a broader analysis of annual (12 mo) new student intakes points to slower growth and informative insights

A Traditional Focus on Fall Intakes Fails to Account for Many New Students Each Yr 40% of the new student intakes in 12 mos enter KSU in spring or summer Whereas beginning freshmen outnumber undergraduate transfers substantially in the fall, transfers outnumber freshmen over 12 mos The readmission of returning stopouts is very large every term.

Undergraduate Transfer Intakes Not Growing Much 12-mos #New %Chg , ,015 24% , % ,027 2% ,172 5% ,010 -5% ,068 2% After a big jump up five years ago from 2,400 to 3,000 per year, KSU’s largest component of new student intakes has been sustained at the higher level but without much growth After a big jump up five years ago from 2,400 to 3,000 per year, KSU’s largest component of new student intakes has been sustained at the higher level but without much growth

Beginning Freshmen Growing Some But Not Consistently 12-mos #New %Chg , ,621 27% ,729 4% , % ,653 19% ,013 14% , % After a big jump up five years ago from 2,000 to 2,600 per year, KSU’s second largest group of new student intakes has fluctuated but been sustained at the higher level with some growth recently to 2,900 After a big jump up five years ago from 2,000 to 2,600 per year, KSU’s second largest group of new student intakes has fluctuated but been sustained at the higher level with some growth recently to 2,900

Readmitted Stopouts Are a Big Group But Not Growing 12-mos #Read %Chg , , % , % ,805 UNC ,844 2% , % ,739 3% Stopouts (now defined as returning after an absence of six consecutive terms) are the third largest intake group annually and have remained relatively stable at the 1,800 level. Stopouts (now defined as returning after an absence of six consecutive terms) are the third largest intake group annually and have remained relatively stable at the 1,800 level.

New Graduate Students Are Growing Modestly Recently 12-mos #New %Chg , , % , % ,178 7% ,208 3% ,343 11% ,381 3% G raduate students are the fourth largest group of new intakes annually, and they have started to show modest growth to the 1,300+ student level in recent years G raduate students are the fourth largest group of new intakes annually, and they have started to show modest growth to the 1,300+ student level in recent years

Despite Dreams of Exponential Growth… None of the four major new student intake groups have had strong and sustained growth trends since None of the four major new student intake groups have had strong and sustained growth trends since

So, Where is Enrollment Growth Coming From? Each year since , larger entering cohorts of beginning freshmen and transfers have replaced older and substantially smaller graduating cohorts creating cumulative growth, despite a lack of intake growth Each year since , larger entering cohorts of beginning freshmen and transfers have replaced older and substantially smaller graduating cohorts creating cumulative growth, despite a lack of intake growth

Cumulative Growth From Returning Students With no cohort growth, most of the impact that each new cohort of beginning freshmen since has on KSU’s growth of the returning student population should end after 8 yrs (5 yrs for transfers) With no cohort growth, most of the impact that each new cohort of beginning freshmen since has on KSU’s growth of the returning student population should end after 8 yrs (5 yrs for transfers)

Growth Should Slow Soon The cumulative growth effects of larger new cohorts replacing smaller graduating ones will slow and end soon if new intake cohorts continue to fail to grow substantially The cumulative growth effects of larger new cohorts replacing smaller graduating ones will slow and end soon if new intake cohorts continue to fail to grow substantially

Looking Beyond Fall’s Beginning Freshmen for Growth Develop a 12- pronged recruitment plan for beginning freshmen, undergraduate transfers, readmitted stopouts and graduate students for Fall, Spring and Summer terms Develop a 12- pronged recruitment plan for beginning freshmen, undergraduate transfers, readmitted stopouts and graduate students for Fall, Spring and Summer terms

KSU’s 10-Year Enrollment Projection: From 20,000 in Fall 2006 to 27,000 – 29,000 by year trends and new student intake analyses for the last five years indicate a slowing average % growth in fall enrollment to between 3-4 % per year for the fifth decade. (Since this projection was formulated, KSU’s fall enrollment growth was up 3.8% in Fall 2007 and 4.1% in Fall 2008). 40-year trends and new student intake analyses for the last five years indicate a slowing average % growth in fall enrollment to between 3-4 % per year for the fifth decade. (Since this projection was formulated, KSU’s fall enrollment growth was up 3.8% in Fall 2007 and 4.1% in Fall 2008).

What Will Be KSU’s 5th Decade’s Encore for Another Strong Uptick in Sustained New Student Intakes ??? Will more on-campus housing do it? Will adding football do it? Will an economic recession do it? Will an effective 12-pronged recruitment plan do it? Will more programs & faculty do it?

If Anyone Can Beat a 10- Year Projection, KSU Can !

For handouts & slides, see Professional Presentations at Comments? Questions?