CLIM Fall 2010 Policy Matters CLIM 101: Global Warming: Weather, Climate and Society

CLIM Fall 2010 Policy Responses to Climate Change Readings: –Henson, –Houghton, Today’s topics –Science, Policy and Society –Tragedy of the (Unregulated) Commons –Sustainability and Sustainable Development –History of Attention to Climate Change –UNFCC, COP, Kyoto, and Copenhagen –U.S. Climate Change Legislation

CLIM Fall 2010

“ --- laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths discovered and manners and opinions change, with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also to keep pace with the times.” Thomas Jefferson Letter to George Wythe, August 13, 1790

CLIM Fall 2010 Tragedy of the (Unregulated) Commons Concept: multiple individuals, acting independently, and solely and rationally serving their own self-interest, will ultimately destroy a shared limited resource, even when it is clear that it is not in anyone's long-term interest for this to happen –Free access and unrestricted demand for a finite resource ultimately reduces the resource through over-exploitation, because the benefits of exploitation accrue to individuals or groups, each of whom is motivated to maximize use of the resource to the point at which they become reliant on it, while the costs of the exploitation are borne by all those to whom the resource is available –Demand for the resource increases, which causes the problem to increase to the point that the resource is depleted (even if it retains a capacity to recover) –Related to concept of carrying capacity Garrett Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons", Science, 162, (December 13, 1968),

CLIM Fall 2010

Which Countries are Emitting the Most per Capita Greenhouse Gases?

CLIM Fall 2010 Sources of CO 2 in US Stationary combustion: 3.8 X 10 3 Tg (67%) Non-stationary combustion: 1.9 X 10 3 Tg (33%)

CLIM Fall 2010 Frederick W. Smith, President & CEO, FedEx Corp; Co-chair, Energy Security Leadership Council (ESLC) 60% of petroleum used in the USA is imported (up from 30% in the 1970s) 90% of all oil reserves are in countries that are not US allies! “50% of US defense budget is directly or indirectly related to protecting the oil trade.” ESLC recommends - Diversify US transportation fuels: electrification of short-haul personal transportation

CLIM Fall 2010 Commercial Buildings By 2037, there will be four times as many buildings and structures on the planet than exist today ( according to Ronald Bogle, President & CEO, American Archeological Foundation) US Energy Administration (2007) Report –Buildings contribute 48% of greenhouse gas emissions annually –76% of all electricity generated by US power plants supplies the built environment For example: Washington Metropolitan Area, 2000  2030 –Population: 7.6 million  10.6 million –Employment: 4.4 million  6.4 million –Non-residential development: 3.6 billion ft 2  5.2 billion ft 2 (According to Robert Puentes, Fellow, Brookings Institution)

CLIM Fall 2010 Sustainability Concept: the capacity to endure. –For ecosystems: remaining diverse and productive over time. –For humans: the potential for long-term maintenance of well- being, which in turn depends on the well-being of the natural world and the responsible use of natural resources. Depends on: –Ensuring environmental adaptability and resilience - maintaining and enhancing the adaptive capacity of the environment –Preventing irreversible long-term damage to ecosystems and human health –Decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation - managing economic growth to be less resource intensive and less polluting  SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

CLIM Fall 2010 Sustainable Development Definition: “The balance of economic growth, social justice, and environmental health that meets the needs of present generation and enables future generations to meet their needs.” Our Common Future (1987) The Brundtland Report

CLIM Fall 2010 Sustainable Development - Interesting Question It is fairly clear that unregulated economic growth leads to environmental degradation … Does environmental preservation stifle economic growth?

CLIM Fall 2010 First Scientific Result: Increases in CO 2 will warm Earth’s Climate 1896 Arrhenius Considered water vapor feedback Connected global carbon cycle and warming effects of increased CO 2 Estimated 500 years to double CO 2 History of Discussion on Global Warming - 1

CLIM Fall : After global temperature rose, 1900 to 1940, The Saturday Evening Post published: Is the World Getting Warmer? 1962: Silent Spring by Rachel Carson launched the environmental movement History of Discussion on Global Warming - 2

CLIM Fall ’s: Mixture of messages by scientists/media 1972: Sawyer Nature paper predicted the rise in global means temperature of 0.6ºC in the 20 th century 1973: Newsweek published a report (28 April) on the fear of a forthcoming ice age 1974:British documentary “Weathermachine” warned about the possibility of ice sheets covering continents in decades. 1975:Broecker published a paper saying we were on the brink of a pronounced global warming History of Discussion on Global Warming - 3

CLIM Fall : Time cover shows people fearing cooling 1979:National Academy of Sciences published the Charney report: formal acceptance of global warming due to an increase in CO : Cold war angst; NRC study of dust in large nuclear exchanges 1985:Discovery of Ozone hole (huge confusion with global warming) –Evidence of fragility of Earth’s atmosphere –Satellite pictures of Earth from space had a psychological impact on our perception of Earth’s fragility 1990: Nuclear warfare  nuclear winter (TTAPS Science paper: Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, Sagan) History of Discussion on Global Warming - 4

CLIM Fall : Time cover shows people fearing cooling 1979:National Academy of Sciences published the Charney report: formal acceptance of global warming due to an increase in CO : Cold war angst; NRC study of dust in large nuclear exchanges 1983: Nuclear warfare  nuclear winter (TTAPS Science paper: Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, Sagan) 1985:Discovery of ozone hole (huge confusion with global warming) –Evidence of fragility of Earth’s atmosphere –Satellite pictures of Earth from space had a psychological impact on our perception of Earth’s fragility History of Discussion on Global Warming - 4

CLIM Fall 2010 History of Discussion on Global Warming - 5 Ozone Hole

CLIM Fall :On a sizzling summer day in Washington, James Hansen, a NASA scientist, testified that he was 99% sure that global warming is upon us. 1988:The New York Times and the Washington Post together published 40 stories on climate change (up from 12 in previous four years). 1988:“Endangered Earth” was named Planet of the Year by Time magazine (instead of its usual “Man of the Year”) History of Discussion on Global Warming - 6

CLIM Fall :IPCC was formed (IPCC first report, 1991) 1992:“Earth Summit” in Rio (global warming, one of many environmental issues) 1992:UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), led by Conference of the Parties, sets an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle the challenge posed by climate change. It recognizes that the climate system is a shared resource whose stability can be affected by industrial and other emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The Convention went into force in 1994 and since has been ratified by 192 countries. Because of the US’s stiff opposition, no binding emission reductions. History of Discussion on Global Warming - 7

CLIM Fall 2010 Oil, Coal, Auto Industries and Skeptics Speak Out Industry lobby groups Industry supported skeptic scientists The New York Times and the Washington Post stories on global warming dropped from more than 70 (1989) to fewer than 20 in 1994 Skeptics/lobby groups successfully convinced journalists/the public that “global warming was at best an unknown quantity and at worst ideological propaganda … a global fraud” (RG, pp 266) Parallels noted to tobacco industry opposition to linking cancer to smoking: –"Doubt is our product," a cigarette executive once observed, "since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy.” History of Discussion on Global Warming - 8

CLIM Fall : Kyoto Protocol: The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the UNFCC. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period The US signed the treaty but did not ratify (not submitted to the US Senate); the US Senate voted 95-0 against any treaty that did not include emission cuts from developing countries also. 2004:The Kyoto Protocol became international law on 6 February, 90 days after Russia ratified it (US President George W. Bush withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol). History of Discussion on Global Warming - 9

CLIM Fall 2010 Regulation of GHG - US EPA The US Supreme Court ruled in 2007 in Massachusetts vs. EPA that the EPA has the authority to control emissions from motor vehicle tailpipes and ordered the EPA to issue an endangerment finding. EPA has the authority to regulate air pollutants that have “effects on (public) welfare,” “on … weather, … and climate, … as well as effects on… personal comfort and well-being.” The EPA Administrator (Stephen L. Johnson), close to issuing such an endangerment finding in 2007 on the basis of “public welfare”, opted for a public comment period after intense pressure from the Bush administration.

CLIM Fall 2010 Regulation of GHG - US EPA The EPA issued a finding on 17 April 2009 for public comment that greenhouse gas emissions pose a danger to the public’s health and welfare. The finding identified carbon dioxide; methane; nitrous oxide; hydro- fluorocarbons; per-fluorocarbons; and sulfur hexafluoride as contributing to global warming. “In both magnitude and probability, climate change is an enormous problem” “The greenhouse gases that are responsible for it endanger public health and welfare within the meaning of the Clean Air Act.”

CLIM Fall September 2009

CLIM Fall 2010 Nature, 22 Oct 09, –Rift between developed and developing countries –“US in limbo” with House bill passed and Senate still debating Senate bill cleared Environment and Public Works Committee on 5 November 2009 –EU has committed to reduce GHG emission by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020; 30% if there is a “global deal” –Indonesia committed to reduce GHG to 26% below predicted level by 2020; 41% if given international aid to reduce deforestation –Big problem: money - $ billion/year for low-carbon economy in developing world –India - no commitments, unless US wants to put $200 billion on table COP15 - Copenhagen United Nations - Climate Change Conference December 2009

CLIM Fall 2010

COP15 - Copenhagen United Nations - Climate Change Conference December November 2009: President Barack Obama says it is "imperative" the US and EU redouble their efforts to achieve success at the climate change conference next month in Copenhagen. 4 November 2009: Chancellor Angela Merkel received standing ovations during her address to the US Congress on Tuesday. However, many Republican lawmakers remained seated when she mentioned the deal to combat global warming.

CLIM Fall 2010 Status of Climate Change Debate in U.S. Congress Issues on the table: –Cap and trade –Adaptation –Climate services –Research/USGCRP –Energy efficiency –Renewable energy –Nuclear Timing: House – passed “Waxman-Markey” in June 2009; has been on hold since (changing from majority Dem to majority Rep in 2011) Senate – many committees … outcome very uncertain: Kerry-Boxer bill was driving Senate debate No action in 2010

CLIM Fall 2010 SRES Emissions Scenarios

CLIM Fall 2010 Emerging Adaptation Opportunities State Programs to Build Resilience – Distribution of allowances to state governments to implement projects, programs or measures to build resilience to impacts of climate change. Public Health – Federal Government assist in preparing health systems to respond to impacts of climate change; ensure sufficient information; enhance preparedness; and assist developing nations. Natural Resources – Efforts to protect, restore and conserve natural resources (including wildlife) in response to climate change; possible financial support and incentives for such programs.

CLIM Fall 2010 Emerging Adaptation Opportunities (continued) International – Financial support for bilateral assistance to help vulnerable countries in development of adaptation plans, policy and financing; support adaptation research in/for most vulnerable developing countries. Climate Services – Will be responsible for coordinating and providing services to users, decision-makers and stakeholders. Many states/decision-makers are not prepared to use this information.

CLIM Fall 2010 Alternative Energy - Wind The US Department of Energy May 2008 Report: “20% wind energy by 2030” Wind energy costs are now competitive with new conventional electric sources Wind represented 35% of NEW US generating capacity in 2007 (40% in 2008) US could install 300,000 MW by this will –create $440 billion in economic development –create 500,000 jobs –save $155 billion in fossil fuel costs –save 4 trillion gallons of water –be equivalent to removing 140 million vehicles from the road (according to Larry Flores, National Technical Director, Wind Powering America Program)

CLIM Fall 2010 Presentation to the Member Representatives of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research April Burke, Wendy Naus and Frank Steinberg Lewis-Burke Associates LLC October 14, 2009 Climate Change Policy: Positioning Universities for New Opportunities

CLIM Fall 2010 Status of FY 2010 Appropriations CJS (NSF, NOAA and NASA) –Senate action pending Energy and Water (DOE) –Final FY 2010: $4.9 billion Office of Science $2.24 billion EERE Continuing Resolution –Through Oct. 31 FY09Pres.HouseSenate NSF $6.49$7.0$6.936$6.916 NOAA $4.3$4.473$4.6$4.77 NASA $17.8$18.68$18.2$18.68 DOE OS $4.77$4.94 $4.9 DOE EERE $1.93$2.32$2.25$2.23 Amounts in billions

CLIM Fall 2010 Status of Climate Change Debate: Senate Environment & Public Works (Boxer) Steering the timeline (passed 11/5/09) Cap and trade/allowance allocations Finance (Baucus) Cap and trade/allowance allocations Coal interests Commerce (Rockefeller) Adaptation National climate service USGCRP/science (Kerry bill) Coal concerns/carbon capture Foreign Relations (Kerry) Adaptation/aid for developing countries/offsets Agriculture (Lincoln) Concerned with increased costs to farmers/industry Energy & Natural Resources (Bingaman) Energy piece already reported out of Committee

CLIM Fall 2010 House vs. Senate Bills Waxman-Markey (H.R. 2454)Kerry-Boxer (Senate Draft) Emission Targets 17% below 2005 levels by % by % below 2005 levels by % by 2050 Initial Allocations 15% auctioned, proceeds to individuals 25% auctioned, proceeds to Treasury Details to be work out by Finance Adaptation State planning Public health Natural Resources International Climate Services Placeholder language currently, covering the same topics as the House bill National Climate Service 3-year OSTP planning process to create Likely housed within NOAA Virtually no mention of interagency engagement or universities Placeholder language currently, actual language to be developed by Commerce Climate Research/ USGCRP Includes USGCRP reauthorization May include USGCRP reauthorization (not in current draft)

CLIM Fall 2010 House vs. Senate Bills Waxman-Markey (H.R. 2454) Kerry-Boxer (Senate Draft/Bingaman Energy Bill) Renewable & Efficiency Standard Combined Efficiency and Renewable Electricity Standard 6% growing to 20% by 2039 Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Standard 3% growing to 15% by 2039 Energy Research Energy Innovation Hubs funded from allowances (0.45%) ARPA-E funded from allowances (1.05%) Allowances for Hubs and ARPA-E not yet determined ENR bill includes placeholder language on Grand Challenges Research Initiative Energy Efficiency More standards, community- focused incentives ↑ Appliance, Building, Transportation, and Industrial Efficiency More incentives and demonstration programs ↑ Appliance, Building, Vehicle, Industrial, and Grid Efficiency Nuclear Power Hardly mentioned Supported as one of many clean energies Direct call to promote and expand nuclear in Kerry-Boxer and ENR bill

CLIM Fall 2010 STAY TUNED!

CLIM Fall 2010 Take Away Messages Opportunities will emerge with the enactment of climate legislation. Adaptation is the future; the community needs to position itself to be helpful and inform decision-making. Get creative, partner, and make new friends with non-traditional atmospheric research agencies (DOD, NIH, USDA, State, etc.).