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Background & Context Energy Statistics Energy Modelling Energy Planning Discussions CARICOM

Background & Context Energy Statistics Energy Modelling Energy Planning Discussions CARICOM

PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE KEY TO FIGURE ENERGY CARRIER CONVERSION TYPE USEABLE ENERGY FLOW ENERGY SERVICES Fossil FuelsBioenergy Solar Energy Wind Energy Hydro Energy Ocean Energy Liquid Fuel Solid Fuel Gaseous Fuel Electricity Heat ‑ based Energy Services Heat ‑ based Energy Services Direct Heating & Lighting Services Electrical Energy Services Mechanical Energy Services Thermal Conversion WorkWork Kinetic Conversion Geothermal Energy HeatHeat

Integrated Assessment Models e.g. AIM Economic Models e.g. GEMINI-E3, E3MG Energy System Models e.g. MARKAL, MESSAGE, LEAP Engineering Models e.g. RETScreen, eQuest Climate Models

Sociopolitics Scenario Policy Resources Local statistics Energy System Model Energy & Emissions Global statistics Statistics Reports Expert Knowledge Reference Technology Database Literature Stakeholders Meetings Experts Other system models Demand Projections Assumptions Outputs from Macros & Demand Models Constraints Energy Security Policy Framework Fitting the puzzle…

What are the questions to be answered? Who is consuming energy? Who is producing energy? Who imports and exports energy commodities? What are the characteristics of transactions between energy producers and consumers? ENERGY STATISTICS ENERGY MODELLING ENERGY PLANNING CARICOM

Background & Context Energy Statistics Energy Modelling Energy Planning Discussions CARICOM

 Energy statistics refers to collection, compilation, analysis and dissemination of data on traditional primary energy commodities (such as coal, crude oil, natural gas); primary renewable sources (such as biomass, geothermal, wind, solar); and electricity when used for the production of energy.  Energy statistics is more specific than (and is different from) other fields of economic statistics as energy commodities can undergo far greater number of transformations (flows) than other economic commodities; in these transformations energy is conserved, as defined by and within the limitations of the first and second laws of thermodynamics. CARICOM

Global Fossil Fuel Trends: Historical, current and projected data on the production, distribution and supply of fossil fuels. Global Renewable Energy Trends: Historical, current and projected data on renewable energy use. Fuel Imports: Oil, gas, coal, biomass and any other fuel imports. Petroleum Refining: Fuel production data, to include the variety of petroleum fuels and derivatives produced. Biofuel Production: Biofuel production data, to include sources of small an large scale biomass, liquid biofuel and biogas supply. Electricity Profile: Generation, transmission and distribution, and where possible, end-use data – electricity importation is also important, where applicable. Information should be disaggregated to include: renewable and non- renewable electricity generation; load factor for various generation sources; peak and off-peak electricity consumption; etc. Heat Production: Any production of process heat for industrial, commercial or domestic use should be tracked. Some Important Data

Commercial and Industrial Energy Consumption: Commercial and industrial activities and the associated electricity and liquid fuel consumption. Self-generation and Generation-offset Distribution: Capture the penetration of small distributed generation technologies, such as solar PV panels, and generation-offset systems, such as solar water heaters. Social and Demographic Surveys: Household sample surveys may capture domestic energy demand as well as make semi-quantitative determination of consumer behaviour. Motor Vehicle Imports: Number and type of vehicles imported. Transportation Trends: Movement of people and goods within the country, to include mode of transportation, as well as peak and off-peak trends. Other Relevant Information: Renewable Energy Assessments; Technology Roadmap; Land-use Use and Spatial Interaction Plans; Industrial Plans. Some Important Data

CARICOM DatabaseAgencyArea served Energy Statistics DatabaseUNSDGlobal Energy DatabaseEIAUnited States ESDEuroStatEuropean Union SETISJRC SIEEOLADELatin America & the Caribbean SIEN CIPPETCEISCARICOM CEEBIP CIPORE Table: Some Key Energy Information Systems

 The OLADE Energy Information Systems (SIEE and SIEN) are modern computing platforms, developed with funding from IADB, which integrates and manages statistics, prospective energy, socio-economic, legal information, supply and demand for services and document the energy sector in the Member Countries of standardized and easy distribution. The tool optimizes and facilitate the provision of information to the Member Countries of OLADE.  The computing platform is intuitive and can be configured so as to have member countries organize energy information; the tool allows member states to set up, organize, manage and disseminate information in their respective energy sectors to the regional (CARICOM) level.

 Integrates information from the energy chain by establishing uniform criteria for standardization, which significantly improves reliability of the results.  Presents historical data for major variables in the energy sector, from which behaviour trends can be identified and future behaviour predicted.  Optimize the timing and periodicity for energy information reported by the country.  Contains flags that combines economic and energy information analysis.  Integrates with other platforms.

 The Caribbean Energy Information System (CEIS) was established to provide a regional information service through networks in Caribbean, mostly CARICOM, countries.  The “network” operates through 18 National Focal Points (NFPs) identified by governments. Each NFP co-ordinates a local committee that identifies, collects and disseminates information on the national energy sector; they also provide feedback to the CEIS on the network’s activities.  Data is uploaded into the CIPPET/CIPORE database from the CEIS Secretariat.

 CEIS has a wealth of historical data on energy related matters on the Caribbean.  The CEIS network within CARICOM is fairly strong; this will no doubt allow for “back- stopping” the data collection effort within member states.  There is potential for the CEIS databases to link with other information systems, as well as planning tools.

Background & Context Energy Statistics Energy Modelling Energy Planning Discussions CARICOM

Energy models are being increasingly used to provide insights into how energy systems may evolve in the years ahead. The formulation of policy and strategy requires sound indications of what to expect in the long-term. It also benefits from a greater transparency of how key elements of the complex energy system influence energy demand and supply trends – macroeconomic trends, demographics, energy prices, resource availability, policy and regulatory developments, technology, etc. Understanding the analysis, scenarios and results of the model would enhance regional, national and local energy planning. CARICOM

ToolFocusArea served MARKALEnergy planning63 countries TIMESEnergy planning63 countries AIMIntegrated planningAsia-Pacific LEAPSustainable energy planning150 countries OSEMOSYSEnergy planning--- EN-PEPEnergy planning70 countries MAEDEnergy planning80 countries MESSAGEEnergy planning80 countries FINPLANEnergy planning80 countries SIMPACTSEnergy planning80 countries ISEDEnergy planning80 countries WASPElectricity planning150 countries SUPERElectricity planning27 countries Table: Some Key Energy Modelling Tools

GLOBAL USAGE OF MARKAL/TIMES Contracting Parties Other users

DESIRED CHARACTERISTICS OF ENERGY MODELLING TOOLS:  Robust  Navigation & Usability  Internet Integration  Flexibility  Functionality  Data exportability  Integration with other applications  Customizability  Speed  Technical support & capacity building  Cost CARICOM

Background & Context Energy Statistics Energy Modelling Energy Planning Discussions CARICOM

Background & Context Energy Statistics Energy Modelling Energy Planning Discussions CARICOM

Modern energy systems are characterized by increasingly complex interactions between energy supplier and distributor, and end-user. Quality data and tools are desired Machine-accessible data has the potential to greatly enhance the productivity of modellers CARICOM

Key conditions: Models must be available and appropriate for the environment Suitable data must be available for input into the model and for validating results Models should be operated by persons trained in use of the tools and in interpreting the outcomes for local conditions CARICOM

“ For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them.” ‑ Aristotle CARICOM

THANKS for your attention! CARICOM