1 DECEMBER 5, 2008 WEATHERING VOLATILE TIMES BRETT HAMMOND CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
For rep/agent use only. Not for further distribution.
Advertisements

Economic Assessment William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Not So Silent Partners: Libraries and Local Economic.
Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook Luncheon Downers.
For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not For Distribution To The General Public. COUNTY OF ORANGE 1.62 DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PLAN.
Copyright ©2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Variable Annuity Investing Securities offered through Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp., a broker/dealer, 1300.
Fees Understanding Retirement Plan Fees. Understanding Plan Costs  Fees have always been a part of your workplace retirement savings plan, but new regulations.
Start planning today to save more for tomorrow For early career employees at the University of Northern Iowa TIAA-CREF Financial Essentials.
Meeting Your Income Needs in Retirement Expectations & Expenses.
Investment Basics A Guide to Your Investment Options Brian Doughney, CFP® Wealth Management Senior Manager.
Copyright ©2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 16 Investing in Bonds.
Investment and Financial Services: What Every Financial Educator Should Know.
Four Reasons to go Global NEXT. Reason #1: Performance – a moving target Source: Globe HySales, February 28, For illustration purposes only Markets.
An Introduction to Investing Fin 302 Spring 2008 James Dow.
Let’s talk about you What is a target date fund?
Investing 101. Types of Savings tools Savings Account: An interest-bearing account (passbook or statement) at a financial institution. Certificates of.
Keith Forslund, Senior Portfolio Manager
Saving and Investing April How to Select a Savings Plan 1. Decide whether to save or invest. 2. Can you withdraw money from this savings plan? 3.
Copyright ©2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 14 Stock Analysis and Valuation.
Investing in a Volatile Market AFN Agenda Today’s market environment Is this time different? Learning from the past Gauging volatility Investing.
An Introduction to Mutual Funds
Mutual Funds For more Information: CNNMoney.com Wiki.
Market Factors January 2012 Tim Vorpahl Vorpahl Wing Securities, Inc. 505 W. Riverside Ave., Ste 205 Spokane, WA (509)
ADP Retirement Services Review your account Determine the asset allocation that is right for you Asset allocation the easy way Rebalance.
CHARTING YOUR FINANCIAL COURSE: A GUIDE FOR WOMEN C49257.
Your Future in Focus 1 of Ed.12/2012 New Jersey Defined Contribution Retirement Plan Stan Rovinski, Prudential Retirement Counselor.
Retirement Planning: It’s Never Too Soon – or Too Late – to Start AFN5600.
(0415) © 2015 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. By accessing this presentation, you agree to the following terms. If you do not agree to these.
New Perspectives on Asset Class Investing © 2015 LWI Financial Inc. All rights reserved. LWI Financial Inc. (“Loring Ward”) is an investment advisor registered.
Strategy & Tactics 1 NYU – Stern School of Business March 24, 2009 Tobias M. Levkovich Managing Director, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist
13-1. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2006 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 13 Investing in Mutual Funds.
CUPA HR Lone Star Chapter Meeting N ovember 5, 2010 Developing an Effective Retirement Strategy For Administrators and Employees 1.
Improving Educators’ Retirement Outcomes in a Changing Economic Environment AACC Annual Convention April 23, 2012 John Hays, Managing Director TIAA-CREF.
Making the Most of Your Financial Future Union College Retirement Plan Enhancements Effective March 1, 2013.
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC VIEWING OR DISTRIBUTION. The 5% Problem Double Jeopardy for Traditional Bond Investors Nicholas Millikan,
There is a common misunderstanding that average and ordinary folks can’t become financially independent.   That couldn’t be further from the truth. The.
1 Chapter 10 Equity Valuation Tools Portfolio Construction, Management, & Protection, 5e, Robert A. Strong Copyright ©2009 by South-Western, a division.
Brett Hammond, Ph.D. Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist, TIAA-CREF ARE WE THERE YET? THE “NEW NORMAL” ECONOMY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR INVESTORS.
2Q | 2011 Guide to the Markets As of March 31, 2011.
Tax Smart Financial Strategies for Our Employees Provided by: Riverview Intermediate Unit 6 Presented by: Kades-Margolis Corporation.
EO /13 | 1 Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee.
EO /11 | ‹#› Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee EO /11 | 1.
Advisor Tool Kit What Has History Shown Us Since World War II, the S&P 500 has experienced a minimum 15% decline 13 times The shortest bottom to peak.
Unit 3 - Investing: Making Money Work for You. UniqueSavingsFeatures UniqueInvestmentFeatures CommonFeatures Short-term Low risk Earns small amount of.
ETF Trading Strategy Bigfoot, Whiddon Wealth Management, LLC and LPL Financial are separate unaffiliated entities. Whiddon Wealth Management, LLC 2410.
Take Charge of Your Money when you leave your job LFD [Presenter's Name] [Presenter's Title] [Presenter's Firm Information] [Date of Presentation]
Copyright T. Rowe Price. All Rights Reserved. T. Rowe Price Retirement Funds Date Copyright T. Rowe Price. All Rights Reserved.
BANKING.  Banking is a combination of businesses designed to deliver the services  Pool the savings of and making loans  Diversification  Access to.
Types of risk presentation Types of risk in your retirement account.
Economic Assessment Wade Rousse Economic Outreach Specialist Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago IASET Chicago, IL December 12, 2008.
City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.
MA 莊涵涵 Financial Management -Valuing Bonds P236.
Shares of Oppenheimer funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency.
Who is TIAA-CREF? 1918 TIAA Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America 1952 CREF College Retirement Equities Fund +
© 2008 RiverSource Distributors, Inc. All rights reserved. Securities products are distributed by RiverSource Distributors, Inc., Member FINRA. RiverSource.
© Family Economics & Financial Education – June 2010 – Investing Unit – Introduction to Investing – Slide 1 Funded by a grant from Take Charge America,
Chapter 11 Financial Markets.
FINANCIAL WELLNESS WORKSHOP. FINANCIAL WELLNESS WORKSHOP Presented by Name Title.
Chapter 32 Saving and Investing Introduction to Business Spring 2005.
Participation in all aspects of the Agent Benefits Program that are offered through AXA Advisors and AXA Network is entirely voluntary, and each participant.
PRUDENTIAL INVESTMENTS >> MUTUAL FUNDS STRATEGIES FOR INVESTORS Speaker name Title Date WHAT IS A MUTUAL FUND?
From Turmoil to Recovery, What’s Next? Jean McGowan, CFA February 16, 2010.
STRIKING A BALANCE How balanced funds may help investors to stay the course toward achieving their long-term goals Name Title Firm The views expressed.
The Big Picture David Irwin, Equity PM EAMG. Agenda Investment philosophy/style Market update Par fund 2.
TIAA-CREF Lifecycle Funds: A Simple Choice Participant Presentation.
© 2009 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved. 1 The Fourth Quarter in Review 2 3 Source: Transamerica Investment Management “First Quarter 2009.
Presented by StanCorp Equities, Inc., member FINRA
Presented by StanCorp Equities, Inc., member FINRA
The Fourth Quarter in Review
The Third Quarter in Review
Financial Markets Update
Presentation transcript:

1 DECEMBER 5, 2008 WEATHERING VOLATILE TIMES BRETT HAMMOND CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST

2 NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION SLOWS IN RESPONSE US PRIVATELY OWNED RESIDENTIAL HOUSING STARTS (IN THOUSANDS) Source: Global Insight

3 PRICE/EARNINGS RATIOS HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY P/E RATIOS WELL BELOW 20-YEAR HISTORICAL NORMS U.S. STOCKS WORLD STOCKS ex-U.S.

4 STOCK MARKETS ARE MORE VOLATILE IMPLIED VOLATITLITY OF S&P 500 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX Note: Month end values extracted from daily data by TIAA-CREF Source: Data Stream, CBOE

5 LONG-TERM CORPORATE BOND SPREADS HAVE JUMPED MOODY’S AAA RATED CORPORATE BONDS OVER 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTES Note: In Basis Points, Month end values extracted from daily data by TIAA-CREF Source: Data Stream, FRB

6 AND SHORT-TERM SPREADS LIKEWISE

7 U.S. ANNUAL GDP GROWTH, 1930–2007 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; TIAA-CREF EARLY YEARS OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION 1930– ESTIMATE: 1.3% 2009 OUTLOOK: -2% to -4%

8 EARNINGS GROWTH DECLINES FOR MOST WORKERS Growth in U.S. earnings for nearly all workers has lagged productivity growth and has also aggravated income inequality in recent years. Recessions tend to reduce incomes for nearly all workers for somewhere between three and seven years. Growth in mean real total money earnings, by educational group, 2000 through GROUPEMPLOYMENT SHAREEARNINGS GROWTH Some HS9.1%-3.2% HS Graduate28.9%-0.2 Some College27.9%-3.5% College Graduate22.0%-4.5% Masters8.8%-4.4% Ph.D.1.5%-0.8% MBA, JD, MD1.8%+5.9% Survey of Consumer Finance, United States Federal Reserve

9 Income inequality in the United States today has risen to levels not seen since the late 1920s.  Share of U.S. gross personal income accounted for by top 1% of earners (incomes above $382,600 in 2006—from IRS filings). –8.2% in 1980 –22.9% in 2006 “ Real compensation tends to parallel real productivity, and we have seen that for generations, but not now. It has veered off course for reasons I am not clear about.” –Alan Greenspan INCOME INEQUALITY INTENSIFIES

10 FINANCIAL CRISIS ORIGINS: YEARS IN THE MAKING  End of structural and geographic restrictions on financial services  Globalization of financial markets  Rise of risk management  Excess demand for financial assets  Rising asset prices, particularly housing

11 FINANCIAL CRISIS EMERGES  Residential market troubles appear and multiply  Mortgage defaults: the 3% problem  Credit markets come to a standstill  Economy begins to crumble  Corporate profit picture remains gloomy  Major repricing of risk around the globe

12 COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY ENDOWMENTS

13 WHITHER COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY ENDOWMENTS?

14 COLLEG AND UNIVERSITY ENDOWMENT ASSET ALLOCATION

15 IMPORTANT INFORMATION There are costs associated with annuities, including surrender fees, early withdrawal penalties and mortality risk expenses. Also, depending on the financial company you choose, the availability of specific types of annuities and annuity features may vary by state. So always read the prospectus before investing. For a more complete discussion of these and other risks, please consult the prospectus. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. Please visit tiaa-cref.org for a current prospectus that contains this and other information. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. This material must be preceded or accompanied by the prospectus for the TIAA Real Estate Account. This material has been prepared by and represents the views of Brett Hammond, and does not reflect the views of any TIAA-CREF affiliate. These views may change in response to changing economic and market conditions. Any projections included in this material are for market sectors or asset classes only, and do not reflect the experience of any product or service offered by TIAA-CREF. The material is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any product or service. Diversification and rebalancing are techniques to help reduce risk. There is no guarantee that these techniques will protect against a loss of income. TIAA-CREF Individual & Institutional Services, LLC and Teachers Personal Investors Services, Inc., members FINRA, distribute securities products. TIAA-CREF personnel, through the investment management area, provide investment advice and portfolio management services through the following entities: Teachers Advisors, Inc.; TIAA-CREF Investment Management, LLC; and Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association. TIAA-CREF Asset Management is a division of Teachers Advisors, Inc. Annuity products issued by TIAA (Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association), New York, NY. ©2008 Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association-College Retirement Equities Fund, New York, NY C43042 (0158)