Strategy and Research Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research SELECTION PROCESS ›Macro Filter ›Fundamental ›Quantitative ›Technical/Timing

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research APPROACH Macro  Laffer Fundamental  Argus Technical/Timing  DeMark / Oscillators / Paterns / Etc… Quantitative  Q Prime

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research APPROACH Macro  Laffer Fundamental  Argus Technical/Timing  DeMark / Oscillators / Paterns / Etc… Quantitative  Q Prime Strategy Don Hahn

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research LAFFER/MACRO/WHY? ›Father of “Supply Side Economics” ›Founding member of Congressional Policy Advisory Board ›Member of President Reagan’s Economic Policy Advisory Board ( )

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research LAFFER/MACRO/WHY? ›Created the Laffer’s Curve - “Memorable event in financial history” Institutional Investor July “A few of the advances that powered this extraordinary century” Times March 1999

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research LAFFER/MACRO/WHY? Investment Returns Laffer Macro-100 Large Cap. Composite Vs. S&P 500 Index 09/ /2004*

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research LAFFER/MACRO/WHY? Annualized Returns Laffer Macro-100 Large Cap. Composite Vs. S&P 500 Index 09/ /2004*

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Laffer / Methodology / Economic Outlook ›5 Areas of Information Incomes Policy Trade Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Special Situations RESULT Economic Outlook

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Laffer / Methodology / Economic Outlook ›5 Areas of Information Incomes Policy Trade Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Special Situations Impact on Private Sector Regulations Restrictions Requirements

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Laffer / Methodology / Economic Outlook ›5 Areas of Information Incomes Policy Trade Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Special Situations Affects Terms Of Trade GAAT NAFTA Exchange Rates

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Laffer / Methodology / Economic Outlook ›5 Areas of Information Incomes Policy Trade Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Special Situations Federal Reserve Systems Monetary Base Interest Rates

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Laffer / Methodology / Economic Outlook ›5 Areas of Information Incomes Policy Trade Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Special Situations Taxing Spending Government

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Laffer / Methodology / Economic Outlook ›5 Areas of Information Incomes Policy Trade Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Special Situations Monopolies / OPEC Wars Weather Etc…

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Laffer / Methodology / Macro Models Company Size Domestic Location Earnings Forecast Fiscal Sensitivity Global Location Laffer Top 100 Interest Rate Sensitivity Trade Sensitivity

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Laffer / Methodology / Macro Models Macro Model Biases Company Size +1 0 LARGE CAPITALISATION SMALL CAPITALISATION Domestic Location FISCAL CHANGE - FISCAL CHANGE Earnings Forecast EARNINGS CHANGE - EARNINGS CHANGE Fiscal Sensitivity FISCAL CHANGE - FISCAL CHANGE Global Location FISCAL CHANGE - FISCAL CHANGE Interest Rate Sensitivity +1 0 RISING RATES FALLING RATES Trade Sensitivity VALUE ADDED - VALUE ADDED

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research LAFFER/MACRO/Performance Macro Portfolio Performance By Quintiles vs. The S&P-500

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Argus Fundamental / Why ›Independent Research Firm ›In Business for nearly 70 years ›6-point system is a blend of: A.Top Down B.Bottom Up

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Argus / Methodology / 6-Point System Industry analysis Growth Analysis Financial strength analysis Quality of Management Risk Analysis Result Buy / Hold / Sell Rating Valuation Analysis

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Argus / Methodology / 6-Point System Industry analysis Growth Analysis Financial strength analysis Quality of Management Risk Analysis Valuation Analysis Outperforming Industries Forecast Economy Forecast Interest Rates Collaborate with Industry Analysts

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Argus / Methodology / 6-Point System Industry analysis Growth Analysis Financial strength analysis Quality of Management Risk Analysis Valuation Analysis Peer Market Comparison Sales Earnings Dividends Cash Flows

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Argus / Methodology / 6 Point System Industry analysis Growth Analysis Financial strength analysis Quality of Management Risk Analysis Valuation Analysis Ratio Analysis Financial Statements Footnotes

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Argus / Methodology / 6 Point System Industry analysis Growth Analysis Financial strength analysis Quality of Management Risk Analysis Valuation Analysis Know Management Meetings Road Shows Conference Calls

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Argus / Methodology / 6 Point System Industry analysis Growth Analysis Financial strength analysis Quality of Management Risk Analysis Valuation Analysis Qualitative Porter five Forces Quantitative Institutional Ownership Insider Ownership

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Argus / Methodology / 6 Point System Industry analysis Growth Analysis Financial strength analysis Quality of Management Risk Analysis Valuation Analysis Establish Target Price Forecasts Adjust for Beta

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Q Prime / Quantitative / Why ? ›Flexible  Tailor-made A.Relative factors B.Historical factors ›Proven track record from Morningstar

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology 6 Categories Factors Infinite Combinations

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology ValuationsDividendsMomentumGrowthReliabilityReturn A/PE R/PE A/PB R/PB A/PS ›6 Categories

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology ValuationsDividendsMomentumGrowthReliabilityReturn Yield Payout Reinv. Rate ›6 Categories

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology ValuationsDividendsMomentumGrowthReliabilityReturn Quarterly EPS Quarterly Sales ›6 Categories

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology ValuationsDividendsMomentumGrowthReliabilityReturn Estimated Growth Estimated Revisions Time Weighted Revisions ›6 Categories

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology ValuationsDividendsMomentumGrowthReliabilityReturn Growth EPS Surprises Vola. Ajd. EPS Surprises ›6 Categories

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology ValuationsDividendsMomentumGrowthReliabilityReturn Long Term Price Trend 1-Month Relative Perf. 2- Month Relative Perf. Etc... ›6 Categories

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Q Prime / Quantitative / Model 1) Value 2) Growth 3) Rotational (Balanced) 4) Q-Score

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Q Prime / Quantitative / Value Model 1) Deep Value 2) EPS Surprises 3) EPS Revisions 4) 6-month returns

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Q Prime / Quantitative / Value Model

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Technical/Timing ›Don Hahn  Long/Intermediate-term ›DeMark  Overbought/Oversold ›Oscillators  Momentum ›Pattern Recognition  Bar charts, candlesticks, P&F

For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research Recap Macro  Laffer Fundamental  Argus Technical/Timing  DeMark / Oscillators / Paterns / Etc… Quantitative  Q Prime