Analyst: Jeremy Leach and JohnPaul Bennett Thursday, November 5 th, 2009
Overview An oil and natural gas exploration and production company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of properties for the production of crude oil and natural gas from underground reservoirs Provides marketing and midstream services for natural gas and oil for other working interest owners in properties it operate Only located in the United States, no global presence
S trengths W eaknesses O pportunities T hreats Low operating costs More development-focused with many core plays Contracting more acreage deals No global presence Selling of ownership instead of relying on debt or equity to fund its growth Recent discovery of shale fields and drilling fields Returns will increase as firm increases its production Subject to volatile commodity prices and an ever-changing regulatory environment (tax regulation) Profits fluctuate with oil and gas prices Spend too much for leasing acreage, unconventional strategy Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar
Basic Info Ticker: CHK Sector: Energy Current Price: $24.35 52-Week Range: $9.84– $30 Market Cap: $15.5B Beta: 1.36 * Reuters & Morningstar
Time-Series Analysis * Morningstar TTM EBTMargin(%) (34) ROA(%) (9.06) ROE (29.37) Revenue Growth (%) 54.3(23.9) N/A EPS (49.8)(88.7) (39.8)(56.5)N/A P/E P/S P/B
Cross-Sectional Analysis * Morningstar CHKIndustry S&P YearAverage P/E P/B P/S Dividend Yield (%) N/A
1-Year VS S&P 500 w/ RSI * Yahoo Finance
1-Year Chart w/ 100 and 200 – Day Moving Averages * Yahoo Finance
Intrinsic Value Morningstar Fair Value Estimate: $46 Three-Stage DDM Calculated Fair Value: $6.22 Three-Stage FCFE Calculated Fair Value: $ Average of Three-Stage Models: $63.19 With 15% Margin of Safety: $53.65 – $72.73 $24.35 < $53.65 = Suggests Undervalued
Headlines Earnings and revenue comparisons with the year-earlier period were quite weak, severely hampered by the slump in commodity prices – Zacks.com Since 1999, Chesapeake has grown by leaps and bounds, however, it will become increasingly difficult for the firm to expand at its historical rate as commodity prices are a large determinant of sales and profit growth as profits fluctuate with oil and gas prices – Morningstar Changing tax legislation in the U.S. could have a negative effect on future cash flows – Morningstar Moved from being an acquisitive company with many emerging plays to a company that is more development-focused with many core plays – Morningstar CEO Aubrey McClendon faced heat for his 2008 $112.5 million compensation package… making him the highest-paid CEO in the U.S., even though the stock fell 59% Chesapeake has been criticized for spending too heavily to lease acres – Reuters Changing tax legislation in the U.S. could have a negative effect on future cash flows
Discussion