Chapter 5 PUBLIC OPINION

The Vietnam War and the Public Background The United States had given large-scale military aid to the French colonialists and then to the South Vietnamese government to fight nationalists and communists in Vietnam. U.S. “military advisers” occasionally engaged in combat, but the American public knew little about the guerilla war. A permissive consensus existed, in which people were willing to go along when their leaders told them that action was needed in order to resist communist aggression.

Tonkin Gulf incident and escalation of the war In 1964, the Department of Defense announced that North Vietnamese PT boats had engaged in “unprovoked attacks” on U.S. ships. Air attacks were launched against North Vietnamese PT boat bases and an oil storage depot. Congress passed the Tonkin Gulf Resolution, authorizing the president to take “all necessary measures.” The Tonkin Gulf Resolution established a legal basis for full U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War.

Public reaction Public support for the war increased after the Tonkin incident. Years later, it was revealed that the U.S.S. Maddox had steamed near the coastline, deliberately provoking North Vietnamese radar defenses; the second attack apparently never happened.

Escalation of antiwar sentiment The number of U.S. troops in Vietnam rose rapidly. Tet offensive President Johnson announced that he would limit the bombing of North Vietnam, seek a negotiated settlement, and withdraw as a candidate for reelection.

Richard Nixon elected president in 1968 By 1969, a substantial majority of the public favored monthly reductions in the number of U.S. troops in Vietnam. Peace agreement was signed in January 1973 North Vietnamese army took control of Saigon two years later and reunified Vietnam

The Vietnam vignette in the textbook illustrates several important points about public opinion. How government officials can sometimes lead or manipulate public opinion How events and circumstances affect opinion How the press can influence public opinion How public opinion can have a strong impact on policymaking, even on foreign policy

Democratic Theory and Public Opinion Public opinion can be defined as the political attitudes expressed by ordinary citizens. Public opinion is a crucial part of democratic government. Abraham Lincoln defined democracy as “government of the people, by the people, and for the people.” One important test of how well democracy is working is how closely government policy corresponds to the expressed wishes of its citizens.

Many leading thinkers have expressed strong doubts about the quality and stability of public opinion. Modern survey researchers turned up evidence of public ignorance, lack of interest in politics, and reliance on group or party loyalties rather than judgments about issues. The authors of The Struggle for Democracy point to evidence that this assessment of public opinion is exaggerated.

What People Know About Politics Gauging what people think Early attempts to determine public opinion by guesswork or from the views of personal acquaintances are defective. The views of personal acquaintances, media voices, or rally audiences are often not representative of the whole public.

The Development of Modern Surveys Most of the guesswork can now be eliminated by conducting an opinion poll or sample survey. Violation of the rule of random sampling in surveys can lead to inaccurate results in opinion polls. Scientific polling techniques became the standard after the famous Literary Digest errors. Straw polls fell out of favor. Perfectly random sampling is not feasible. Interpreting surveys

Individuals’ Ignorance Modern survey results consistently show that most Americans do not know or care a lot about politics. People have particular trouble with technical terms, abbreviations, and geography. The things that most Americans don’t know may not be vital. Lack of detailed knowledge or ideology does not mean that public opinion is unstable or irrelevant.

Collective Knowledge and Stability Americans’ collective policy preferences are very stable over a long period of time. The evidence is clear that many of the Founders’ fears of capriciousness or fluctuations in public opinion are no longer justified, if they ever were.

How People Feel About Politics The system in general Level of public confidence Political efficacy — the public’s feelings about whether the government pays any attention to ordinary people, and to whether involvement such as voting has any effect Feelings of anger, alienation, and mistrust are closely related to many people’s judgments that the institutions of government have not been performing well.

Dissatisfaction With Government Performance Evaluations of government’s performance includes citizens’ judgments of how the government is doing. Trends in presidential popularity tend to fluctuate more than party loyalties or policy preferences. The public’s evaluation of the president depends on how well things are going. Evaluations of Congress have not been surveyed as regularly as those of the president, but it appears that Congress has often been unpopular.

Party Loyalty and Party Decline Party identification is the sense of belonging to a party. Party balance among voters has important effects on who rules in Washington, and especially on which party controls Congress.

Basic Values and Beliefs Americans’ basic beliefs and values are more fundamental than opinions about specific policies There is often a high degree of consensus about basic beliefs and values. Freedom Economic liberty Capitalism Equality Democracy

Policy Preferences According to democratic theory, one of the chief determinants of what governments do should be what the citizens want them to do — that is, citizens’ policy preferences. The textbook uses a series of graphs to illustrate the general stability of collective public opinion and to show how sharply the public distinguishes among different policies.

Trends Some surveys have revealed strong liberalizing trends over a period of many years concerning civil rights and civil liberties. Americans are socially conservative on a number of issues. Public opinion sometimes changes rapidly in the sphere of foreign policy.

Sources of Political Attitudes Political socialization — political learning, the process by which appropriate means of political behavior are learned Examples include saluting the American flag or standing when the national anthem is played. The process begins when a person is very young, but people continue to form and change their political attitudes throughout their lives.

Agents of Political Socialization Family Schools Workplace and home Events Economic and social structure

How People Differ The authors of The Struggle for Democracy describe public opinion as a collective whole, but they also point to important distinctions among different sorts of people in different circumstances. Race and ethnicity Religion — ethnic differences are often interwoven with differences in religious faith and values

Region — although regional differences have been reduced, there are still substantial differences Social class — compared with much of the world, there has been little political conflict in the United States among people of different incomes or occupational groupings, but there are some differences

Educational level — the strongest single predictor of participation in politics Gender Age — the young and old differ on certain matters that touch their particular interests, such as the draft in wartime or the drinking age

Public Opinion and Policy One test of how democracy is working is how closely a government’s policies correspond to the wishes of its citizens. The textbook looks at the relationship is between what American citizens want and what the U.S. government does. The effects of public opinion on policy

Opinion Manipulation Even if public opinion is a proximate influence on policy, we still need to know what factors affect public opinion itself. Can public opinion be manufactured by the media or easily manipulated by interest groups or political leaders? Chapter 5 concludes that public opinion is a substantial and important proximate influence on policymaking, but that responsiveness to public opinion is incomplete.