JDP 3-40 Security & Stabilisation: The Military Contribution JDP 3-40 Security & Stabilisation: The Military Contribution Presentation by Lieutenant Colonel Alasdair Balgarnie Team Leader JDP 3-40 Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre

Recent Headlines “Overstretched, overwhelmed and over there.” “Britain's armed forces, losing their way?” The Economist, 29 Jan 09 “Overstretch pushes British troops to the brink” Daily Telegraph, 11 Jan 09 “Why did it all go wrong. Re- assessing British COIN in Iraq.” Strategic Studies Quarterly, Winter 2008 “Blair’s Wars and Brown’s Budgets: from Strategic Defence Review to Strategic Decay in less than a decade.” International Affairs, Spring 09

Emerging Concepts & Doctrine

Drivers Towards Instability Drivers Towards Instability Driven by Six Mega Trends …Globalization Top 1% of world population owns 40% of wealth …Interconnected world economies and opportunities …The ‘have-nots’ know it …Shifting Demographics 60% will live in urban areas by 2030 … Africa, Middle East, Central Africa have 40-50% Youth Bulge …Weapons of Mass Destruction ~25 nations possess, stockpile or develop … tons of enriched uranium … al Qaeda religious duty ~25 nations possess, stockpile or develop … 3770 tons of enriched uranium … al Qaeda religious duty …Climate Change Arctic sea ice melted by 2040 … Desertification at 70,000Km 2 /yr … 1.4B confront environmental fragility …Failed / Fragile States Account for 77% of conflict … Fragile states have 4 times terror problems … 28 of 51 African states high risk …Uncertain Natural Resource Availability World food cost up 45%, shortages of rice, wheat & maize … triple digit oil prices … 450M face severe water shortage A US Army View In line with DCDC Strategic Trends

Major Combat Counter Irregular Activity Peace Support Operations Limited Intervention Peacetime Military Engagement Level of violence Spectrum of Conflict View

Increasing Level of Violence Operational Theme

Elements of a Stable State

Fragile States – Downward Spiral

Instability – The Problem

Stabilisation – The Solution

Stabilisation & COIN

Graduated Military Commitment

How does 3-40 fit in ? Joint Ops Project LWC Tactical Doctrine

Land Tactical Publications

How does 3-40 fit in ? Joint Ops Project OGDs Allies LWC Tactical Doctrine JDP 3-40

JDP 3-40 sets out the Operational Art for: the UK military contribution stabilising fragile or failed states, determining the nature, level, principles and priorities that govern and the principles governing transitions to civilian and host nation control

Stabilisation Stabilisation is the process that supports states which are entering, enduring or emerging from conflict, in order to prevent or reduce violence; protect the population and key infrastructure; promote political processes and governance structures which lead to a political settlement that institutionalises non- violent contests for power; and prepare for sustainable social and economic development Terminology

JDP 3-40 Macro Structure Part 1 - WHY ? PART 2 - WHAT ? PART 3 - HOW ? PART 1: STABILISATION The problem of societal conflicts within fragile states: –the UK approach to the stabilisation –the underlying causes of state fragility and societal conflicts 3 big ideas: –‘comprehensively’ across security, development and governance lines of operation –central conflict relationship - host government, competing elites (+ insurgents), wider population –the national strategic aim - to foster the development of a political settlement, amenable to broader UK interests between these actors PART 2: THE MILITARY CONTRIBUTION TO STABILISATION the nature of military engagement within stabilisation missions the military’s role in influencing the societal conflict in ways which foster the development of a political settlement the generic types of operational tasks the military may be required to conduct across security, governance and development lines of operation – permissiveness is the key a set of principles for the use of military force PART 3: CAMPAIGNING IN STABILISATION the critical function of intelligence in underpinning the campaigning cycle the specifics of campaigning within the stabilisation environment the tools and insights necessary for conducting the iterative cycle of campaign design, analysis, planning, execution and assessment Anticipating, learning and adapting

JDP 3-40: Key Themes The Centrality of Influence in Stabilisation – to achieve a political settlement Stabilisation Activities & combat are both part of complex operations Host Nation sovereignty impacts on everything you do Security demands persistent presence – requires mass and is linked to capacity building Multinationality brings its own complexity Any plan must be comprehensive in its considerations – there should be an integrated theatre campaign plan The military are likely to have a significant role in the delivery of civil effect Anticipate, learn and adapt. Transitions – planned, managed - dynamic

Key Conflict Relationship

Questions