Climate Change Water stress, floods, ... Walter Mendoza mumbai xavier’s july 02, 2011

Key issues 350 ppm 2°C

Disaster? Or Catastrophe?

Tipping elements Processes, particularly sensitive to climate change Greenland ice sheet Arctic sea ice melting Methane outgasing Arctic ozone depletion Deep water formation Himalaya snow cover Indian monsoon Sahara El Niño Southern Oscillation Amazon vegetation Marine carbon cycle Graph shows Hadley Centre model prediction for areas with future cyclone generation (red/orange) in global warming scenario, compared to actual track of Catarina. Point out that observed trend in hurricane activity is still under debate. Globale Erwärmung  A) mehr Verdunstung  Trockenheit, B)mehr Wasserdampf  1) mehr Wasser kann fallen, 2) mehr latente Wärme Abschwächung des meridionalen Temp-gefälles  weniger Westwindwetterlagen Verschiebung von typischen Wetterlagen  mehr Extreme an einem Ort West Antarctic ice sheet Antarctic ozone hole

Climate change and water Superimposed on the existing crisis Surface air temperature in India is going up at the rate of 0.4 degrees Centigrade Rainfall patterns changing: more extreme rainy days; less number of rainy days; decline in summer rainfall Total runoff in most rivers will increase, cause more flooding; runoff will be less in lean season

Climate change and water Glaciers melting at an accelerated rate, may cause increased flooding in Himalayan rivers and subsequent Increase in flash floods Glacier-fed rivers may eventually run dry

Climate change and water Rising sea levels and coastal erosion will gobble up land Coastal freshwater aquifers turning saline Large scale displacement Increased extreme disasters (drought, floods, cyclones, etc)

Health impact As temperatures soar, humidity increases, as water becomes scarce, disasters such as floods increase, so will Diarrhoea, cholera, malaria and other vector borne disease Increased drought, leading to Poor water quality, dehydration, chronic low water consumption, poor sanitation and hygiene

Social impact Poor impacted the most, sustained poverty Increased inequity Affect on livelihood Social unrest, increased conflicts

Over the last 25 years, Gangotri glacier has retreated more than 850 meters

Agriculture Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India - For example a a 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions. Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture. The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.

Coastal Zones Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization. 7500 km coast line Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

Coastal Zones Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization. 7500 km coast line Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

Key Vulnerable River Basins Acute physical water scarce conditions Constant water scarcities and shortage Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions Rare water shortages

Health Malaria is likely to persist in many states and new regions at hogher latitudes may become malaria-prone The duration of the malaria transmission windows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in southern states. Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s Endemic regions of malaria

Responses NAPCC – National Action Plan on Climate Change - Water Mission State Action Plans

National Water Mission Studies on Management of Water Resources Management & regulation of Groundwater resources Mandating water-harvesting and artificial recharge Enhancing recharge of deep zones of aquifers Mandatory water assessments and audits for industrial waste disposal Regulation of power tariffs for irrigation

Responses NAPCC – National Action Plan on Climate Change - Water Mission State Action Plans

Responses NAPCC – National Action Plan on Climate Change - Water Mission State Action Plans

National Water Mission (contd.) Upgradation of storage systems for freshwater & drainage systems for wastewater Prioritizing vulnerable watersheds Rejuvenation of old water tanks Models for urban storm water flows Strengthen links with afforestation & wetland conservation Enhance storage capacities in hydro projects Conservation of wetlands Development of Desalination techniques

Responses

Responses

Responses

mumbai

mumbai

Mithi river

The Beginning of the End Thank you