Make Your Move Alan Beaulieu ITR Economics ™

Duration Forecast ForecastEstimates GDP12$ $ (-0.2%) US Ind Prod (12MMA) 97.2 (- 0.8%) EU Ind. Prod (12MMA) 98.9 (- 1.5%) CA Ind. Prod (-0.3%) Retail Sales 30 $2.186 Trillion $2.140 (-2.1%) Housing6 743 Ths Units 772 ( 3.9%) Employment million (-1.0%) CPI92.8%2.1% * End of year 12-month index estimate 2012 Forecast Results 2

CountryDurationAccuracy Germany1298.0% France1899.9% Italy1899.9% United Kingdom % Spain1898.6% China1796.7% Japan1595.9% Brazil1496.7% EU Industries % Results for

4 US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product -14.6% -5.3% -3.1% -7.1% Year-over-year Quarter to Quarter (3/12)

US Industrial Production Growth 12/12 annual growth rate 5

Real Gross Domestic Product 6 Trillions of $

US Industrial Production to Wholesale Trade Durable Goods 12/12 Rates-of-Change 7

US Industrial Production to Wholesale Trade Nondurable Goods 12/12 Rates-of-Change 8

Wholesale Trade Petroleum & Petroleum Products to Crude Oil Futures Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change 9

US Industrial Production to Wholesale Trade Machinery, Equipment & Supplies 12/12 Rates-of-Change 10

US Industrial Production to Wholesale Trade Chemicals & Allied Products 12/12 Rates-of-Change 11

Wholesale Trade Electrical & Electronic Goods Bils of $ 12

Wholesale Trade Hardware & HVAC Equipment & Supplies to US Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change 13

14 Leading indicators pointing up Leading indicators pointing up Liquidity is not an issue Liquidity is not an issue Exports are up Exports are up Stimulative monetary policy Stimulative monetary policy Employment rising (companies right-sized) Employment rising (companies right-sized) Banks are lending Banks are lending Retail Sales Retail Sales Construction spending is improving Construction spending is improving Recovery

15 Europe’s financial troubles … Europe’s financial troubles … China recession? … China recession? … Massive legislative changes… Massive legislative changes… Oil prices could break through $120 … Oil prices could break through $120 … Fiscal Cliff… Fiscal Cliff… Tax Hikes… Tax Hikes… Massive deficit and growing nat’l debt Massive deficit and growing nat’l debt Areas of Concern

National Defense Expenditures to Defense Capital Goods N.O. Reagan Bush ClintonBush Carter Obama 12/12 Rates-of-Change 16

Year-Over-Year Growth Rates % 17 Western Europe Industrial Production

Global Leading Indicators 1/12 Rates-of-Change 18

Tax Revenue and Top Marginal Rates Compared, Source: Tax Policy Center; Historical Tables, OMB; CBO Alternative Scenario. Produced by Veronique de Rugy, Mercatus Center at George Mason University 40-Year Average

International Comparison of Spending on Health,

Costs by Age Categories 21

Source: The Economist Federal Reserve Act of pages Glass-Steagall Act37 Dodd-Frank848 Not rules, but instructions on how to create more regulations and bureaucracies Caught in the Web Who can do what to whom 22

23 Total U.S. Public Debt (% of GDP)

Year-Over-Year Growth Rates % 24 World Countries Industrial Production

25 Global Industrial Production Indices 12/12 Rates-of-Change 3.9Mexico 3.7US 0.7SE Asia -0.5Japan -1.6Europe -2.5Brazil

26 3MMA 11.0% 12.2% US Manufacturing as a % of GDP (Value Added)

$ per pound, 3MMA 27 Copper Price Trend

Crude Oil Futures Prices Light & Sweet $ per Barrel, Data Trends 28

U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil Declining Net imports as a share of domestic consumption 29 52% 49% 45% 57% 58% 60%

30 Trends 10 Housing Production Medical New Orders Soft Landing Financial Retail Wholesale Trade Foreign Nonresidential Construction Hard Landing

Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft 3/12 12/12 3MMT 12MMT Billions of $ 31

32 USIP – 12/12 Indicator - Monthly US Industrial Production to ITR Leading Indicator

12/12 Rate-of-Change University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index 33

6 Month Moving Average Chicago Fed National Activity Index 34

35 Purchasing Managers Index Raw Data

36 Ratio of Inventories to New Orders Raw Data

37 US Leading Indicator

Stock Prices Index 1/12 12/12 Actual 12MMA S&P 500, = 10 38

Corporate Bond Prices Rates-of-Change 39

40 Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles 3/12 12/12 3MMT 12MMT Trillions of 82-84$

Personal Savings Billions of $, Annual Data Trend SAAR 41

42 Housing Starts 3/12 12/12 3MMT 12MMT Millions of Units

43 Remodeling Market Index 3MMA

US Industrial Production to Private Non-Residential Construction 12/12 Rates-of-Change Additions and Alteration Commercial Buildings -4.7% D Office & Bank Alterations -6.9% A Stores & Restaurants -0.4% D % %

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