Presented by: Steve Barker Policy, Research and Economic Analysis Oklahoma Population Projections Through 2075

 Common projection methodology  Oklahoma’s population trends  Projections for Tulsa MSA counties  Questions and answers Today’s Topics of Discussion

Standard Projection Formula -A- Population in the current year -B- Births in the current year -D- Net migration -C- Deaths in the current year -E- Population projection for the next year -E- Population projection for the year -F- Births in the next year* -H- Net migration -G- Deaths in the next year -I- Population projection for the next year State level projections start with 2010 Decennial Census counts and follow forecasting routines developed by the US Census Bureau: + - += -F- *Based on fertility rates and # of women of child bearing age

Who is included in projections? Everybody! All civilian residents living within the state US Armed Forces stationed within Oklahoma Prisoners, including out of state prisoners held at private prisons located within the state

Projection of births and deaths Birth and death rates assumed to remain constant. BirthsDeaths Birth rates generally declining across the United States and in Oklahoma Health care technology improving Hispanic population increasingOklahoma’s smoking reduction programs and diabetes awareness Hispanic population has higher birth rate Oklahoma is among the youngest states in the nation As percentage of Hispanics increases, rate of decline in the state’s overall birth rate expected to slow, stall or reverse Obesity epidemic – two thirds of state may be obese by 2030

Oklahoma’s net migration history 1970 to 1983: Oklahoma boomed – Peak annual growth of 3.6% in 1982 – Double digit annual percentage growth in some less populated counties And then came the oil bust… 1987: state’s annual population growth rate dropped to -1.3%.

Net migration: what’s the norm? 1960 to 2011: Oklahoma’s population gain due to net migration averaged around 10,000 people annually – Swings from +80,500 in 1982 to -61,000 in to today: Oklahoma’s average annual net migration gain just under 15,000

County projections handled differently For 64 counties, used straight linear regression trendline formulas – Based on population patterns from 1960 to 2011 For 13 counties, all in western Oklahoma, straight linear regression formulas gave unrealistic results – Alfalfa, Cimarron, Dewey, Ellis, Grant, Greer, Harmon, Harper, Kiowa, Roger Mills, Tillman, Washita and Woods For these 13 counties, a curved, or power, trendline was judged to be a better fit

Matching up two methodologies Census Bureau population estimates based on birth, death and migration data They have situations where sum of parts doesn’t equal the expected whole They use a balancing figure that effectively serves as a “margin of error” This report used similar approach Between 2010 and 2075, the required adjustment averaged 0.2% of each year’s total population.

Oklahoma’s population trends

OK Population Concentration: 1910

OK Population Concentration: 2010

OK Population: Peak Decades

Population Growth: 1960 to 2010 Totals Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs

Year Over Year Population Growth: 1960 to 2010 Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs

Projections by Age Statewide population projections by age group PopulationAs %Projected PopulationAs % Age 00 to ,1267.0% 347,8536.3% Age 05 to ,3366.9% 349,1776.3% Age 10 to ,6646.8% 350,4556.3% Age 15 to ,4847.1% 350,9496.3% Age 20 to ,2427.2% 350,8166.3% Age 25 to ,7377.1% 350,6576.3% Age 30 to ,0186.4% 350,2936.3% Age 35 to ,7426.2% 349,3246.3% Age 40 to ,1956.1% 347,0576.2% Age 45 to ,2427.0% 342,8066.2% Age 50 to ,3697.0% 335,8326.0% Age 55 to ,9696.3% 325,5865.9% Age 60 to ,5135.5% 310,5765.6% Age 65 to ,3924.2% 289,0625.2% Age 70 to ,0753.2% 258,7164.7% Age 75 to 79 95,0512.5% 217,1213.9% Age 80 to 84 69,2841.8% 166,9523.0% Age ,9121.7% 166,7773.0% Total Population 3,751, % 5,560, %

Projections for Tulsa MSA counties

71,916

173,122

934,215

144,991

1,503,330

Population Rankings CountyPopulation Rank 2012Population Rank 2075 Creek1110 Okmulgee2729 Osage1617 Pawnee4241 Rogers65 Tulsa22 Wagoner87

With all that said, predicting the future is a bit like this… So wish me luck!

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