Growth and Sustainability in the Twenty-First Century Chapter Eighteen: Growth and Sustainability in the Twenty-First Century

Climate Change

Figure 18.1: Global Temperature Trends, 1900-2100  Global average temperature is predicted to be between 1.5 and 6 degrees Celsius warmer in 2100 compared to preindustrial levels. Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program, www.globalchange.gov .

Economic Growth and the Environment

Figure 18.2: Environmental Kuznets Curve for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Sulfur dioxide emissions per capita (kg) The empirical relationship between sulfur dioxide emissions and the level of economic development in a country supports the EKC hypothesis. GNP per capita Source: T. Panayotou, “Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Levels of Development,” International Labour Office Working Paper, 1993.

Figure 18.3: Carbon Dioxide Emissions vs GDP per Capita, 2009 Brunei United Arab Emirates Bahrain United States Saudi Arabia Kazakhstan Norway China Carbon dioxide emissions per capita tend to increase with higher levels of economic development in a country. (Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Database 2013)   Switzerland Sweden India Gabon Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Database 2013.

Figure 18.4: Environmentally Based Taxes as a Share of Total Tax Revenue, Select Industrialized Countries Percent of total tax revenue Environmentally based taxes account for about 10 percent of total tax revenue in Denmark and the Netherlands, but only about 3 percent of total revenue in the United States. Source: OECD, OECD/EEA Instruments Database 2007

Table 18.1: Global Population Classification by Income and Environmental Impacts, 2013 Each of the three groups defined here needs to approach environmental sustainability with different objectives. • For the lower-income group, the focus must be on improving material living standards and expanding options while taking advantage of environmentally friendly technologies. • The challenge for the middle-income group is to keep overall environmental impacts per capita relatively stable by pursuing a development path that avoids a reliance on fossil fuels, disposable products, and ever-increasing levels of material consumption. • Finally, the high-income group must find a way to reduce environmental impacts per capita through technological improvements, intelligently designed policies, and changes in lifestyle aspirations. Source: World Bank, Little Green Data Book 2013; World Development Indicators 2013.

Figure 18.5: A Consumption Possibilities Frontier Europe Leisure United States The diagram illustrates the tradeoff between consumption and leisure time. Europeans on average live at a lower material standard than people in the United States, because they do not work as many hours, hence earn less income. On the plus side, they enjoy more leisure time, which Americans sacrifice in order to be able to consume more. Income, Consumption

Are Stabilization and Sustainability in Conflict?

Figure 18.6: Growth Reaching a Steady-State Resource-using Economic Activities Steady State After starting with an exponential growth pattern, an economy adapting to a steady-state reduces its rate of growth in what is called a logistical pattern, approaching a maximum level at which economic activity stabilizes. Time

Figure 18.7: A No-Growth Scenario for the Canadian Economy 200 GDP/Capita 150 Index (2005=100) 100 GHG Unemployment 50 Poverty Debt to GDP Even though projected GDP/capita stops growing in this macroeconomic model, well-being continues to increase, with declining unemployment, poverty, and debt, and improved environmental conditions. 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year Source: Adapted from Peter Victor, Managing Without Growth: Slower by Deisgn, not Disaster. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2008, p. 182.

Appendix: Demographic Challenges

Table 18.2: Stages of Demographic Transition

Figure 18.8: Population by Age and Sex, United States, 1900, 2000, and 2040 (projected) (c) 2040, projected In 1900, the “population pyramid” shows a small elderly population, a larger middle-aged population, and an even larger population of children. By 2000, falling birth rates made the middle tiers of the “pyramid” bulge outward. The proportion of older people in the population is forecast to be much higher in future decades. Source: Wan Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, and Kimberly A. DeBarros, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P23–209, “65+ in the United States: 2005”, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2005.

Figure 18.9: Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 1950-2050 Italy United States Countries with sharp declines in birth rates can expect to have a rising ratio of older people to working-age people over the next several decades. China Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Population Database. Figure based on mediumvariant projections. 16