The Economic and Labour Market Outlook Sonya Gulati Senior Economist November 2013
GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK
EMERGING MARKETS BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT
U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH TO ACCELERATE
FISCAL DRAG HAS WEIGHED ON U.S. GROWTH
THE FED’S EXIT STRATEGY
CANADA HAS OUTPERFORMED
CONSUMERS & GOVERNMENTS CAN NO LONGER BE THE ENGINE OF GROWTH
HOUSEHOLD DEBT TO GROW MORE IN LINE WITH INCOMES
CANADIAN EXPORTS TO PICK UP MODERATELY IN
INTEREST RATES TO REMAIN LOW
CANADIAN EMPLOYERS HAVE BEEN BUSY
MOST SECTORS HAVE BEEN ADDING TO PAYROLLS
THE WEST HAS LED JOB CREATION
SENIORS INCREASINGLY LEAVING THEIR THUMBPRINT ON THE LABOUR MARKET
YOUTH, BY CONTRAST, HAVE YET TO RECOVER FROM THE RECENT DOWNTURN
SUPPLEMENTARY UNEMPLOYMENT MEASURES POINT TO LABOUR SURPLUS
STATISTICS CANADA VACANCY RATE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY FLAT
ALTERNATIVE MEASURE OF VACANCIES POINTS TO INCREASED MISMATCH
A FEW PROVINCES SHOWING REAL LABOUR MARKET TIGHTNESS
BUT, WAGE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY TAME, EVEN OUT WEST
TD ECONOMICS LONG-TERM LABOUR MARKET FORECAST
TD Economics This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.