The Economic and Labour Market Outlook Sonya Gulati Senior Economist November 2013

GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK

EMERGING MARKETS BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT

U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH TO ACCELERATE

FISCAL DRAG HAS WEIGHED ON U.S. GROWTH

THE FED’S EXIT STRATEGY

CANADA HAS OUTPERFORMED

CONSUMERS & GOVERNMENTS CAN NO LONGER BE THE ENGINE OF GROWTH

HOUSEHOLD DEBT TO GROW MORE IN LINE WITH INCOMES

CANADIAN EXPORTS TO PICK UP MODERATELY IN

INTEREST RATES TO REMAIN LOW

CANADIAN EMPLOYERS HAVE BEEN BUSY

MOST SECTORS HAVE BEEN ADDING TO PAYROLLS

THE WEST HAS LED JOB CREATION

SENIORS INCREASINGLY LEAVING THEIR THUMBPRINT ON THE LABOUR MARKET

YOUTH, BY CONTRAST, HAVE YET TO RECOVER FROM THE RECENT DOWNTURN

SUPPLEMENTARY UNEMPLOYMENT MEASURES POINT TO LABOUR SURPLUS

STATISTICS CANADA VACANCY RATE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY FLAT

ALTERNATIVE MEASURE OF VACANCIES POINTS TO INCREASED MISMATCH

A FEW PROVINCES SHOWING REAL LABOUR MARKET TIGHTNESS

BUT, WAGE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY TAME, EVEN OUT WEST

TD ECONOMICS LONG-TERM LABOUR MARKET FORECAST

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