IPB in Counterinsurgency (Part I Operational Environment) Introduction: Introduce you self. Two one hour blocks of instruction. Go to next slide LIC Tenets Political Dominance Unity of Effort Adaptability Legitimacy Perseverance

References FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency Operations FM 3-0 Operations FM 6-0 Mission Command: Command and Control of Army Forces FM 5-0 Army Planning and Orders Production FM 3-06, Urban Operations FM 3-50.1, Army Personnel Recovery FM 3-05.201, Special Forces Unconventional Warfare FMI 3-07.1, Security Force Assistance (February 2009), FMI 3-24.2, Tactics in Counterinsurgency Draft of JP 3-24 draft Counterinsurgency MNF-I CG’s COIN Handbook Counterinsurgency Leaders Course Afghanistan Student Handbook SFA Advisor Handbook (Issue at Fort Riley for Combat Advisors) Human Terrain Team Handbook Special Forces Population and Resource Control Handbook Highlight that while we use all the known doctrinal manuals, we are also drawing on insights commanders on the ground…General Casey, General Vines. Highlight the Joint Special Operations University Report 05-02 Operationalzing COIN written by COL Celeski, former CDR 3d Special Forces Group.

Operational Environment - Population large part of defining the terrain: OAKOC Conventional Environment/War: Obstacles Counterinsurgency Environment/War: Key Terrain - Deny the enemy passive/active support - Physically/psychologically separate the population from the insurgency Step One Define: Operational Environment Bullets 1/ 2: We hear this all the time…in COIN people are the key terrain: Bullet 3: IO system needs to be well informed Bullet 4: As the Iraqi government asserts its self, law enforcement TTPs will play a bigger role especially given the cellular nature of our adversaries. TRANSITION: SINCE PEOPLE ARE KEY TERRAIN WE CAN USE ASCOPE…HELP US UNDERSTAND THE ENVIRONMENT BETTER. AREA

A.S.C.O.P.E. Area Structures Capabilities Organizations People Events Memory Aid: ASCOPE Point 1: Planning at the tactical level in counterinsurgency operations requires a far greater analysis of civil considerations than in conventional operations. Point 2: We will discuss ASCOPE, but we wont teach a class on it. Rather, point out the reference that details ASCOPE (NEW coin) and we will review the aspects of it to remind everyone of the power of this analytical tool when applied to COIN planning. FM 3-07.22 2-27 counterinsurgency operations see also FM 6-0 appendix B Civil considerations comprise six characteristics. Expressed in memory aid. ASOPE In this OAKOC (define) the civilians are the key terrain Observation///fields of fire Avenenues of approach Key terrain Obstacles Cover & concealment TYPES of Intel: Humint Imint Sigint Masint ISR TRANSITION:

Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence) Data Use x Perspectives   Population Insurgents Counterinsurgents AREA (Where) LOCATION STRUCTURE (Why Important) CAPABILITIES (Who is Responsible) STATUS Sewer Water Electric Academic Trash Medical Security ORGANIZATION (What Groups in AO) LOCATION/ DETAILS PEOPLE (How do they Communicate) RECIPIENT EVENTS (When) DTG/LOCATION

IPB I (Operational Environment) Demographic Group, Community, or Neighborhood (Center of Influence) / AO   Data Level 1 Population Level 2 Insurgents Level 3 Counterinsurgents AREA (Where) LOCATION Tribal Area  Gang Territory  Slums  Police Districts STRUCTURE (Why Important)  Religious Shrine  Bridge  Police Station CAPABILITIES (Who is Responsible) STATUS Sewer Water Electric Academic Trash Medical Security  Employment ORGANIZATION (What Groups in AO) LOCATION/ DETAILS  Tribe ‘A’  Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)  Local Militia  Local Ethnic Group PEOPLE (How do they Communicate) RECIPIENT  Tea Shop  Bar  Local Radio  Market Place EVENTS (When) DTG/LOCATION  National Holiday  Religious Observance  Local Wedding  Harvest Season

IPB 1 1 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Operational Visualize the specific groups that defines the limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical and human terrain using ASCOPE (overlay). Identify each specific community or group. 1 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Operational Environment Describe the Environment's Effects Evaluate the Threat

IPB 2 1 2 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Operational Visualize the specific people, leaders, culture, social and economic within the AO/AI (overlay). ASCOPEs 1 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Operational Environment Describe the Environment's Effects Evaluate the Threat Visualize the specific aspects of the population by demographic in their multiple layers (overlay). Understand how each group communicates (I/O), who the leaders are, cultural factors that effect operations, and potential infrastructure targets. 2 Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by specific group depicted the Overlay from IPB I)

IPB 3 1 3 2 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Operational Visualize the specific people, leaders, culture, social and economic within the AO/AI (overlay). ASCOPEs 1 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Operational Environment Describe the Environment's Effects Evaluate the Threat 3 2 Assess the insurgent’s strategy and forecast his MD/MP COA (add to IPB I-II overlay to visualize and the enemy’s Campaign Plan and how he gains passive/active support of the population) Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by specific group depicted the Overlay from IPB I)

IPB 4 4 1 3 2 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the How (using Effects) insurgents leverage the population (Environment) to accomplish MD/MP COAs. Use this Plan to apply and prioritize our actions/resources. LLOs provide the metric and balance these efforts. IPB 4 Visualize the specific groups within the population in their multiple layers (overlay). ASCOPEs 4 1 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Operational Environment Describe the Environment's Effects Evaluate the Threat 3 2 Assess the insurgent’s strategy and forecast his MD/MP COA (add to IPB I-II overlay to visualize and the enemy’s Campaign Plan and how he gains passive/active support of the population) Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by specific group depicted the Overlay from IPB I)

IPB 1 1 SO WHAT? Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Visualize the specific groups that defines the limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical and human terrain using ASCOPE (overlay). Identify each specific community or group. 1 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Operational Environment Describe the Environment's Effects SO WHAT? Evaluate the Threat 1. Identifying the “Corners” (neighborhoods, demographic groups, communities) of the 4 x Corner War defined by: - Ethnic - Social - Political - Religious - Economic - Tribal/Family 2. Details of each demographic groups

IPB 1 4 4 1 1 3 3 2 2 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Operational Environment Describe the Environment's Effects Evaluate the Threat 3 3 2 2

x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x FOB GIGANTOR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

Areas Tribal Areas x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Tribe B x x x x x x x x x FOB GIGANTOR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Tribe A x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Tribe D x x x x Tribe C x x x x x x x x

Areas Religious Boundaries Shi’a Sunni x x x x x x x x x FOB GIGANTOR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Sunni x x x x x x x x x x Shi’a x x x x x x

Areas Economic Districts Poor Middle Merchants x x x x x x x x x x FOB GIGANTOR x x Poor x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Poor x x x x Middle Merchants x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Middle Merchants Rich Ex Regime Poor x x x x x x

Areas Government Centers Poor Middle Merchants G x P x x x x x x x FOB GIGANTOR x x x x Poor x x x x x x x x x x P x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Poor G x x x x Middle Merchants x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x P x x x x x x x G x x x G x P Middle Merchants Rich Ex Regime Poor x x x x x x P

Structures How a structure’s location, function, and capabilities can support or hinder operations. Traditional high payoff targets: Bridges, communications towers, power plants, and dams. International and localize significant sites: Churches, mosques, national libraries, and hospitals, cemeteries, historical ruins, religious sites, cultural areas, and other protected sites Practical sites: jails, warehouses, toxic industrial materials, television and radio stations, and print plants,, may influence operations. Important: HN provides what the effects of engaging these sites The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use. Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites, and facilities with practical applications. Religious shrines or mosques Cemeteries Other areas where US presence may be an I/O victory Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites and facilities with practical applications. The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use.

Structures - Mosques The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use. Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites, and facilities with practical applications. Religious shrines or mosques Cemeteries Other areas where US presence may be an I/O victory Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites and facilities with practical applications. The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use. If the target is in a house near the Mosque does he sleep in the Mosque? Will he run to the Mosque?

Structures - Religious shrines The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use. Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites, and facilities with practical applications. Religious shrines or mosques Cemeteries Other areas where US presence may be an I/O victory Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites and facilities with practical applications. The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use. Do we identify that local ruins is a HVT for Al Qaeda insurgents because its destruction will cause sectarian violence, huge I/O event, backlash against the coalition by locals and international community.

Structures – Cemeteries The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use. Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites, and facilities with practical applications. Religious shrines or mosques Cemeteries Other areas where US presence may be an I/O victory Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites and facilities with practical applications. The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use. Published as a protected site insurgents will now use it to cache weapons.

Structure x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Poor M Middle Merchants G x P x x x x x x x FOB GIGANTOR x x x x Poor x x x x x x x x x x P x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x G Poor x x x x Middle Merchants x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x P x x x Rich Ex Regime x x x x G x x G x x P Middle Merchants Poor x x x x x x P

Capabilities Capabilities refers to the ability of local authorities to provide key functions and services not just mentioning the functions. What is required to save, sustain, or enhance life, in that priority. Those areas the populace needs help in after combat operations Public health Security Public works and utilities Economics Commerce IS there an existing government, is it legitimate? Why are the community leaders effective; why are they ineffective Do you want to add legitimacy to the local authorities? Is the enemy keeping them ineffective? Definition: FM 3-07.22 2-27 counterinsurgency operations see also FM 6-0 appendix B Assess capabilities in terms of those required to save, sustain, or enhance life, in that order. Capabilities can refer to the ability of local authorities to provide key functions and services. These can include areas needed after combat operations and contracted resources and services.

Capabilities Capabilities can refer to the ability of local authorities to provide key functions and services - Are local civil authorities effective? IS there an existing government, is it legitimate? Why are the community leaders effective; why are they ineffective Do you want to add legitimacy to the local authorities? Is the enemy keeping them ineffective? Definition: FM 3-07.22 2-27 counterinsurgency operations see also FM 6-0 appendix B Assess capabilities in terms of those required to save, sustain, or enhance life, in that order. Capabilities can refer to the ability of local authorities to provide key functions and services. These can include areas needed after combat operations and contracted resources and services.

Capabilities Capabilities can refer to the ability of local authorities to provide key functions and services - Are local civil authorities effective? - Is there a charismatic leader in the community who the community listens to? IS there an existing government, is it legitimate? Why are the community leaders effective; why are they ineffective Do you want to add legitimacy to the local authorities? Is the enemy keeping them ineffective? Definition: FM 3-07.22 2-27 counterinsurgency operations see also FM 6-0 appendix B Assess capabilities in terms of those required to save, sustain, or enhance life, in that order. Capabilities can refer to the ability of local authorities to provide key functions and services. These can include areas needed after combat operations and contracted resources and services. TRANSITION: NEXT: O FOR ORGANIZATION:

Capabilities Useful tool is SWEAT-MS to look at Capabilities Sewer – Local government (Mayor and council) Water – Tribal leader (historical - for hundreds of years, tribal leader controlled and protected wells. Electricity – Town engineer Academic – Government and Imams Trash – Private business (local merchants) Medical – Tribal doctors Security – Police, tribal militia Note: Some of these unofficial leaders may seem inefficient or bad ideas. It is important to approach the problem by first understanding the issue. Possibly including unofficial leaders in the process is enough to maintain their respect and support of the government. IS there an existing government, is it legitimate? Why are the community leaders effective; why are they ineffective Do you want to add legitimacy to the local authorities? Is the enemy keeping them ineffective? Definition: FM 3-07.22 2-27 counterinsurgency operations see also FM 6-0 appendix B Assess capabilities in terms of those required to save, sustain, or enhance life, in that order. Capabilities can refer to the ability of local authorities to provide key functions and services. These can include areas needed after combat operations and contracted resources and services.

Capability x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Gov. Council Member Poor M Middle Merchants G x P x x x Gov. Council Member x x x x Imam FOB GIGANTOR x x x Police x Poor x x x x x x x x x x P x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x TL x x x x x x Police Poor x x x x x Tribal Leader Middle Merchants x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Imam x x x x x x x Tribal Leader x x Gov. Council Member x x x Rich Ex Regime x x x x x x Tribal Leader x x Doctor Police Chief Middle Merchants Poor x x Tribal Leader x x x x

Organizations Consider all nonmilitary groups or institutions in the AO Cultural, Social, Religious Tribes Political Wings of Insurgent Groups PRT Non-government organizations (NGOs) Private Sector (Companies) International Red Cross OGAs Contractors Media (TV, Radio, Newspapers, Periodical, 24/7) Consider all nonmilitary groups or institutions in the AO. These may be indigenous, come from a third country or US agencies. They influence and interact with the populace, force, and each other. Current activities, capabilities, and limitations are some of the information necessary to build situational understanding. This becomes often a union of the resources and specialized capabilities. Transition: P for People

Organization x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Poor Middle Merchants M G x P x x x x x x x x FOB GIGANTOR x x x Poor x x x x x x x x x x P x x x x x x x x x x M x x x x x x x x x x x x Squatters x G x x Middle Merchants Poor x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Squatters x x x x x x P M x x x Rich Ex Regime x x x x G x x x x G P Middle Merchants M Poor x x x x x x P Squatters

People All nonmilitary personnel that military forces encounter in the AO Sheiks City council leaders Imams Professionals Displaced persons or “squatters” Sources Tribal Leaders Include how these people communicate. This is important to see the best way to provide I/O both friendly and enemy. People is a general term describing all nonmilitary personnel that military forces encounter in the AO. This includes those personnel outside the AO whose actions, opinions, or political influence can affect the mission. Identify the key communicators and the formal and informal processes used to influence people. In addition, consider how historical, cultural, and social factors that shape public perceptions beliefs, goals, and expectations. Why are squatters important? They are swayable; they have no governance, little sustenance, and are very susceptible to coercion; do we coerce? Lack of GOVT Vulnerable population Leadership TRANSITION: How do people communicate??

People What are the key methods of communication used in the area? These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

People What are the key methods of communication used in the area? Word of Mouth These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

People What are the key methods of communication used in the area? Word of Mouth Mosques These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

People What are the key methods of communication used in the area? Word of Mouth Mosques Tea shops These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

People What are the key methods of communication used in the area? Word of Mouth Mosques Tea shops Satellite TV These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

People What are the key methods of communication used in the area? Word of Mouth Mosques Tea shops Satellite TV Cell phones These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

People What are the key methods of communication used in the area? Word of Mouth Mosques Tea shops Satellite TV Cell phones Graffiti These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

People What are the key methods of communication used in the area? Word of Mouth Mosques Tea shops Satellite TV Cell phones Graffiti Internet Instant access to the world Transition: Meetings

People What are the key methods of communication used in the area? Word of Mouth Mosques Tea shops Satellite TV Cell phones Graffiti Internet Meetings These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies Transition: IO

People What are the key methods of communication used in the area? Word of Mouth Mosques Tea shops Satellite TV Cell phones Graffiti Internet Meetings I/O Products These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies TRANSITION: NEXT: E FOR EVENTS:

People Tie people/leaders to method of communication How does the Tribal leader communicate and pass word of mouth? Tea shops, tribal council meetings, mosque Imam? Mosque, during charity events for IDPs Merchants? On the corners in market sector were they gather to smoke and eat Various outspoken Tribal members? Tea shops, graffiti, radio These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies TRANSITION: NEXT: E FOR EVENTS:

People x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Graffiti Graffiti M G x P x x x x x T x x x x FOB GIGANTOR x x Graffiti G x x x x x x x x x G x P x x x x x x x x x x x x x x TL M x x G x x x x G x x T x G G x Graffiti x x x x x x x x x x x x x x G Tea Shops x G x x x x x x x x x x x G x x P T Tea Shops M x x x x T x TL x x G x x TL x G x P Tea Shops TL Graffiti M x x x x G x T x P

Events Events are routine, cyclical, planned, or spontaneous activities that significantly affect organizations, people, and military operations Saddam Hussein’s Trial National Elections Arbae’en Anniversary of the Ba’ath Party Ramadan Id’Al Fitr Funerals Political Rallies Hitting the 2000 casualty mark Abu Graib Template events and analyze for their political, economic, psychological, environmental, and legal implications. What is important about events? Insurgents use them: Attacks i.e AMZ attacked mosque during Arbae’en last year. Imam Hussain’s matyrdom: 40 days after his death…Shia pilgrimage to Karbala Recruitment Shape the battlefield; obstacles….we know the impact of attacking a Shrine, Mosque etc Ramadan may effect the effectiveness of your IA…religious obligations can’t be ignored. USE ISF to help understand their significance and how they will impact operations? The Baghdad bridge stampede occurred on August 31, 2005 when up to 1,000 people died following a stampede on Al-Aaimmah bridge, which crosses the Tigris river in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. At the time of the stampede around one million pilgrims had gathered around or were marching toward the Kadhimiya mosque which is the shrine of the Imam Musa al-Kazim, one of the twelve Shi'a Imams. Around the shrine rumours of an imminent suicide bomb attack broke out and panic spread and people flocked back towards the bridge, which had been closed. TRANSITION : USE ASCOPE TO ENHANCE IPB

Events Events are routine, cyclical, planned, or spontaneous activities that significantly affect organizations, people, and military operations Saddam Hussein’s Trial National Elections Arbae’en Anniversary of the Ba’ath Party Ramadan Id’Al Fitr Funerals Political Rallies Hitting the 2000 casualty mark Abu Graib Template events and analyze for their political, economic, psychological, environmental, and legal implications. What is important about events? Insurgents use them: Attacks i.e AMZ attacked mosque during Arbae’en last year. Imam Hussain’s matyrdom: 40 days after his death…Shia pilgrimage to Karbala Recruitment Shape the battlefield; obstacles….we know the impact of attacking a Shrine, Mosque etc Ramadan may effect the effectiveness of your IA…religious obligations can’t be ignored. USE ISF to help understand their significance and how they will impact operations? The Baghdad bridge stampede occurred on August 31, 2005 when up to 1,000 people died following a stampede on Al-Aaimmah bridge, which crosses the Tigris river in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. At the time of the stampede around one million pilgrims had gathered around or were marching toward the Kadhimiya mosque which is the shrine of the Imam Musa al-Kazim, one of the twelve Shi'a Imams. Around the shrine rumours of an imminent suicide bomb attack broke out and panic spread and people flocked back towards the bridge, which had been closed. TRANSITION : USE ASCOPE TO ENHANCE IPB

Events Events are routine, cyclical, planned, or spontaneous activities that significantly affect organizations, people, and military operations Saddam Hussein’s Trial National Elections Arbae’en Anniversary (Ba’ath Party) Ramadan/Id’Al Fitr Template events and analyze for their political, economic, psychological, environmental, and legal implications. What is important about events? Insurgents use them: Attacks i.e AMZ attacked mosque during Arbae’en last year. Imam Hussain’s matyrdom: 40 days after his death…Shia pilgrimage to Karbala Recruitment Shape the battlefield; obstacles….we know the impact of attacking a Shrine, Mosque etc Ramadan may effect the effectiveness of your IA…religious obligations can’t be ignored. USE ISF to help understand their significance and how they will impact operations? The Baghdad bridge stampede occurred on August 31, 2005 when up to 1,000 people died following a stampede on Al-Aaimmah bridge, which crosses the Tigris river in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. At the time of the stampede around one million pilgrims had gathered around or were marching toward the Kadhimiya mosque which is the shrine of the Imam Musa al-Kazim, one of the twelve Shi'a Imams. Around the shrine rumours of an imminent suicide bomb attack broke out and panic spread and people flocked back towards the bridge, which had been closed. TRANSITION : USE ASCOPE TO ENHANCE IPB

Events Events are routine, cyclical, planned, or spontaneous activities that significantly affect organizations, people, and military operations Saddam Hussein’s Trial National Elections Arbae’en Anniversary (Ba’ath Party) Ramadan/Id’Al Fitr Funerals Template events and analyze for their political, economic, psychological, environmental, and legal implications. What is important about events? Insurgents use them: Attacks i.e AMZ attacked mosque during Arbae’en last year. Imam Hussain’s matyrdom: 40 days after his death…Shia pilgrimage to Karbala Recruitment Shape the battlefield; obstacles….we know the impact of attacking a Shrine, Mosque etc Ramadan may effect the effectiveness of your IA…religious obligations can’t be ignored. USE ISF to help understand their significance and how they will impact operations? The Baghdad bridge stampede occurred on August 31, 2005 when up to 1,000 people died following a stampede on Al-Aaimmah bridge, which crosses the Tigris river in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. At the time of the stampede around one million pilgrims had gathered around or were marching toward the Kadhimiya mosque which is the shrine of the Imam Musa al-Kazim, one of the twelve Shi'a Imams. Around the shrine rumours of an imminent suicide bomb attack broke out and panic spread and people flocked back towards the bridge, which had been closed. TRANSITION : USE ASCOPE TO ENHANCE IPB

Events Events are routine, cyclical, planned, or spontaneous activities that significantly affect organizations, people, and military operations Saddam Hussein’s Trial National Elections Arbae’en Anniversary (Ba’ath Party) Ramadan/Id’Al Fitr Funerals Political Rallies Template events and analyze for their political, economic, psychological, environmental, and legal implications. What is important about events? Insurgents use them: Attacks i.e AMZ attacked mosque during Arbae’en last year. Imam Hussain’s matyrdom: 40 days after his death…Shia pilgrimage to Karbala Recruitment Shape the battlefield; obstacles….we know the impact of attacking a Shrine, Mosque etc Ramadan may effect the effectiveness of your IA…religious obligations can’t be ignored. USE ISF to help understand their significance and how they will impact operations? The Baghdad bridge stampede occurred on August 31, 2005 when up to 1,000 people died following a stampede on Al-Aaimmah bridge, which crosses the Tigris river in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. At the time of the stampede around one million pilgrims had gathered around or were marching toward the Kadhimiya mosque which is the shrine of the Imam Musa al-Kazim, one of the twelve Shi'a Imams. Around the shrine rumours of an imminent suicide bomb attack broke out and panic spread and people flocked back towards the bridge, which had been closed. TRANSITION : USE ASCOPE TO ENHANCE IPB

Events Tie effect to event: Annual pilgrimage Arbae’en is marked by sectarian attacks Wedding brings members of the tribe with rifles for celebratory fire. (Important to know if wedding as day as raid on target) Potential I/O issue especially if wedding party fires on raiding party. Friday prayer coincides with sectarian violence Ba’ath Party is trigger for simultaneous attacks Spring brings seasonal fighters from surrounding nations Template events and analyze for their political, economic, psychological, environmental, and legal implications. What is important about events? Insurgents use them: Attacks i.e AMZ attacked mosque during Arbae’en last year. Imam Hussain’s matyrdom: 40 days after his death…Shia pilgrimage to Karbala Recruitment Shape the battlefield; obstacles….we know the impact of attacking a Shrine, Mosque etc Ramadan may effect the effectiveness of your IA…religious obligations can’t be ignored. USE ISF to help understand their significance and how they will impact operations? The Baghdad bridge stampede occurred on August 31, 2005 when up to 1,000 people died following a stampede on Al-Aaimmah bridge, which crosses the Tigris river in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. At the time of the stampede around one million pilgrims had gathered around or were marching toward the Kadhimiya mosque which is the shrine of the Imam Musa al-Kazim, one of the twelve Shi'a Imams. Around the shrine rumours of an imminent suicide bomb attack broke out and panic spread and people flocked back towards the bridge, which had been closed. TRANSITION : USE ASCOPE TO ENHANCE IPB

Events x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x M G x P x x x x x T x x x FOB GIGANTOR x x x G x x x x x x x x x G x P x x x x x x x x x x x x M x x x TL x G x x x x G x x T x G G G x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x G x x x G x x x x x x x x x G x x P T M x x x x T x TL x x G x x TL G x x P TL M x x x x G x x T P

Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence) Data Use x Perspectives   Population Insurgents Counterinsurgents AREA (Where) LOCATION STRUCTURE (Why Important) CAPABILITIES (Who is Responsible) STATUS Sewer Water Electric Academic Trash Medical Security ORGANIZATION (What Groups in AO) LOCATION/ DETAILS PEOPLE (How do they Communicate) RECIPIENT EVENTS (When) DTG/LOCATION

Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476 Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence) Data Use x Perspectives   Population Insurgents Counterinsurgents AREA (Where) LOCATION  Market Grid Sq 3476 Center of economic activity Insurgents use for black market Semi-permissive Environment STRUCTURE (Why Important) CAPABILITIES (Who is Responsible) STATUS Sewer Water Electric Academic Trash Medical Security ORGANIZATION (What Groups in AO) LOCATION/ DETAILS PEOPLE (How do they Communicate) RECIPIENT EVENTS (When) DTG/LOCATION

Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476 Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence) Data Use x Perspectives   Population Insurgents Counterinsurgents AREA (Where) LOCATION  Market Grid Sq 3476 Center of economic activity Insurgents use for black market Semi-permissive Environment STRUCTURE (Why Important)  Sunni Mosque Grid 318778  Center of religious life  Safe area/cache for Insurgents  Protected site; approval is needed CAPABILITIES (Who is Responsible) STATUS Sewer Water Electric Academic Trash Medical Security ORGANIZATION (What Groups in AO) LOCATION/ DETAILS PEOPLE (How do they Communicate) RECIPIENT EVENTS (When) DTG/LOCATION

Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476 Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence) Data Use x Perspectives   Population Insurgents Counterinsurgents AREA (Where) LOCATION  Market Grid Sq 3476 Center of economic activity Insurgents use for black market Semi-permissive Environment STRUCTURE (Why Important)  Sunni Mosque Grid 318778  Center of religious life  Safe area/cache for Insurgents  Protected site; approval is needed CAPABILITIES (Who is Responsible) STATUS Sewer Green Water Red Electric Academic Yellow Trash Medical Security ORGANIZATION (What Groups in AO) LOCATION/ DETAILS PEOPLE (How do they Communicate) RECIPIENT EVENTS (When) DTG/LOCATION

Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476 Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence) Data Use x Perspectives   Population Insurgents Counterinsurgents AREA (Where) LOCATION  Market Grid Sq 3476 Center of economic activity Insurgents use for black market Semi-permissive Environment STRUCTURE (Why Important)  Sunni Mosque Grid 318778  Center of religious life  Safe area/cache for Insurgents  Protected site; approval is needed CAPABILITIES (Who is Responsible) STATUS Sewer Red Water Electric Academic Trash Medical Security ORGANIZATION (What Groups in AO) LOCATION/ DETAILS PEOPLE (How do they Communicate) RECIPIENT EVENTS (When) DTG/LOCATION

Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476 Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence) Data Use x Perspectives   Population Insurgents Counterinsurgents AREA (Where) LOCATION  Market Grid Sq 3476 Center of economic activity Insurgents use for black market Semi-permissive Environment STRUCTURE (Why Important)  Sunni Mosque Grid 318778  Center of religious life  Safe area/cache for Insurgents  Protected site; approval is needed CAPABILITIES (Who is Responsible) STATUS Sewer Red Al Sheik Rashad Zidan  Al Sheik Rashad Zidan  Abdul Al Karim, Director of Water Water Electric Academic Trash Al Sheik Rashad Zidan: Nima Sarhid Tribe electrician   Sheik Zidan; providing generators and black market gas Abu Sadeq Saba, City electrician Medical Security ORGANIZATION (What Groups in AO) LOCATION/ DETAILS PEOPLE (How do they Communicate) RECIPIENT EVENTS (When) DTG/LOCATION

Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476 Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence) Data Use x Perspectives   Population Insurgents Counterinsurgents AREA (Where) LOCATION  Market Grid Sq 3476 Center of economic activity Insurgents use for black market Semi-permissive Environment STRUCTURE (Why Important)  Sunni Mosque Grid 318778  Center of religious life  Safe area/cache for Insurgents  Protected site; approval is needed CAPABILITIES (Who is Responsible) STATUS Sewer Red Al Sheik Rashad Zidan  Al Sheik Rashad Zidan  Abdul Al Karim, Director of Water Water Electric Academic Trash Al Sheik Rashad Zidan: Nima Sarhid Tribe electrician   Sheik Zidan; providing generators and black market gas Abu Sadeq Saba, City electrician Medical Security ORGANIZATION (What Groups in AO) LOCATION/ DETAILS IDPs/Refugees 2000 in Slum, SE Sector  Drain on economy, but charity is their Muslim duty  Source of recruits and Intel (eyes and ears)   Marginalized by local government/police PEOPLE (How do they Communicate) RECIPIENT EVENTS (When) DTG/LOCATION

Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476 Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence) Data Use x Perspectives   Population Insurgents Counterinsurgents AREA (Where) LOCATION  Market Grid Sq 3476 Center of economic activity Insurgents use for black market Semi-permissive Environment STRUCTURE (Why Important)  Sunni Mosque Grid 318778  Center of religious life  Safe area/cache for Insurgents  Protected site; approval is needed CAPABILITIES (Who is Responsible) STATUS Sewer Red Al Sheik Rashad Zidan  Al Sheik Rashad Zidan  Abdul Al Karim, Director of Water Water Electric Academic Trash Al Sheik Rashad Zidan: Nima Sarhid Tribe electrician   Sheik Zidan; providing generators and black market gas Abu Sadeq Saba, City electrician Medical Security ORGANIZATION (What Groups in AO) LOCATION/ DETAILS IDPs/Refugees 2000 in Slum, SE Sector  Drain on economy, but charity is their Muslim duty  Source of recruits and Intel (eyes and ears)   Marginalized by local government/police PEOPLE (How do they Communicate) RECIPIENT  Tea Shop Grid 310790/ Poor Wrks  Al Sheik Rashad Zidan; ‘Word of Mouth’  Recruiting, HUMINT, Propaganda, Pop. Control  Nothing EVENTS (When) DTG/LOCATION

Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476 Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence) Data Use x Perspectives   Population Insurgents Counterinsurgents AREA (Where) LOCATION  Market Grid Sq 3476 Center of economic activity Insurgents use for black market Semi-permissive Environment STRUCTURE (Why Important)  Sunni Mosque Grid 318778  Center of religious life  Safe area/cache for Insurgents  Protected site; approval is needed CAPABILITIES (Who is Responsible) STATUS Sewer Red Al Sheik Rashad Zidan  Al Sheik Rashad Zidan  Abdul Al Karim, Director of Water Water Electric Academic Trash Al Sheik Rashad Zidan: Nima Sarhid Tribe electrician   Sheik Zidan; providing generators and black market gas Abu Sadeq Saba, City electrician Medical Security ORGANIZATION (What Groups in AO) LOCATION/ DETAILS IDPs/Refugees 2000 in Slum, SE Sector  Drain on economy, but charity is their Muslim duty  Source of recruits and Intel (eyes and ears)   Marginalized by local government/police PEOPLE (How do they Communicate) RECIPIENT  Tea Shop Grid 310790/ Poor Wrks  Al Sheik Rashad Zidan; ‘Word of Mouth’  Recruiting, HUMINT, Propaganda, Pop. Control  Nothing EVENTS (When) DTG/LOCATION Religious Events/ Eid ul-Fitr 10-13 Oct, Entire Sector Feast that ends Ramadan, families get together Recruiting, propaganda, attacks against non-Muslims Opportunities to target HVIs returning home to be with family

Environment x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Tribe B Poor Middle Merchants x x x x T x x x x FOB GIGANTOR x x Poor G x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Poor x x Middle Merchants x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Tribe A x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Tribe D x x x x Rich Ex Regime Tribe C x x Legend/Key Middle Merchants Mortar/Rocket Poor x IED/SAF SigAct x x x T x Tea Shop x G Enemy I/O Graffiti

Environment x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Tribe B Poor Middle Merchants x x x x T x x x x FOB GIGANTOR x x Poor G x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Middle Merchants Poor x x x x x x x Insurgents attack Tribe A’s economic rivals to secure their support x x x x x x x x x x x Tribe A x x x Sectarian Violence Insurgency x x x x x x x x x x x Tribe D x x x x Rich Ex Regime Tribe C x x Legend/Key Middle Merchants Mortar/Rocket Poor x IED/SAF SigAct x x x T x Tea Shop x G Enemy I/O Graffiti

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