CEEN 590 Sustainable Energy as a Social and Political Challenge 1

Today’s agenda Simulation A path to a clean energy system Why challenge is so formidable (Victor) Carbon lock-in science-policy dilemma 2

How to read an academic paper What’s the main argument (or puzzle)? What subsidiary arguments support it? Are there underlying or explicit value assumptions? What evidence is used to support the argument? Does the evidence support the argument? Do other (better?) arguments support the observed outcomes? 3

Sample exam Part V: Short answer (guideline: words). Answer three of the six questions that follow. 10 points each, total 30%. Write legibly. Explicitly incorporate course concepts and readings. 1. According to David Victor, why is global warming such a hard problem to solve? 2. According to Hoberg and Taylor in “Between Consent and Accommodation,” what are the rules for how governments need to consider First Nations concerns in decision-making? 3. Describe Unruh’s concept of “carbon lock-in” and explain the challenges it poses for developing sustainable energy policy. 4. Using the Norman Ruff reading “Executive Dominance” and the lectures, explain why premiers and prime ministers have so much power within the Canadian system of government. 5. Describe the stages of the policy cycle model, with examples from Northern Gateway Pipeline case or another energy policy with which you are familiar. 6. According to Burnstein, What is the impact of public opinion on public policy? 4

Feasibility of Decarbonization: California Case Study Sustainable Energy Policy5

Feasibility of Decarbonization March 19, 2013Sustainable Energy Policy6

Feasible of Decarbonization Sustainable Energy Policy7

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Another vision of clean energy system “We suggest producing all new energy with [water, wind, and solar] by 2030 and replacing the pre-existing energy by Barriers to the plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic. The energy cost in a WWS world should be similar to that today” 9 Jacobson, M.Z., Delucchi, M.A., Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials. Energy Policy (2010),

Victor’s 3 central political challenges 1.Very deep cuts to GHG emissions are required – Long residence time of CO2 in atmosphere – given rate of emissions stock is hard to reverse 2.Costs immediate, benefits uncertain and distant in time – “time inconsistency problem” 3.Global nature of problem creates spatial inconsistency: local costs, global benefits 10

Hoberg’s version: Why climate action is so hard politically 11 Cost of MitigationBenefits of Mitigation Relatively certainHighly uncertain NowDistant in Time HereGlobal

Victor’s 3 myths about policy process Scientist’s myth: scientific research can determine the safe level of global warming Environmentalist’s myth: global warming is a typical environmental problem Engineer’s myth: once cheaper new technologies are available, they will be adopted 12

Path Dependence 13

Sustainable Energy Policy14

Sustainable Energy Policy15

Evolution of technical systems Increasing returns result from Scale economies Learning economies Adaptive expectations Network economies Sustainable Energy Policy16

Techno-institutional complex Not discrete technological artifacts Complex system of technologies embedded in a powerful conditioning social context of public and private institutions Technological systems – technological lock-in Institutional lock-in – Private organizations – governmental Sustainable Energy Policy17

February 2, 2011Sustainable Energy Policy18

Sustainable Energy Policy19

Science and Politics 20

Core message: Deficit Model: “You just don’t understand” more information will resolve conflicts and produce appropriate policy response Members of the public filter their responses to science controversies through their value systems Social science helps explain how this works 21

Kahan et al Science comprehension thesis: members of the public do not take climate change as seriously as scientists because they don’t understand the science Cultural cognition thesis: individuals form perceptions of societal risks that cohere with the values characteristics of groups with which they identify 22

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Motivated reasoning motivated cognition: unconscious tendency to fit processing of information to conclusions that suit some end or goal – biased information search: seeking out (or disproportionally attending to) evidence that is congruent rather than incongruent with the motivating goal – biased assimilation: crediting and discrediting evidence selectively in patterns that promote rather than frustrate the goal – identity-protective cognition: reacting dismissively to information the acceptance of which would experience dissonance or anxiety. Daniel Kahan, “What Is Motivated Reasoning and How Does It Work?, Science and Religion Today May 4, 2011.What Is Motivated Reasoning and How Does It Work? 25

The politics of science: Classic view: separation 26 Science(facts)Politics(values) Truth

Politics of Science: Recognition of “Trans-science” 27 Jasanoff and Wynne 1998

Politics of Science Constructivist View 28 Politics Science

Politics of Science Constructivist View (when pressed) 29 Politics Science

Politics and Science Policy reflects value judgments, but embodies causal assumptions Causal knowledge frequently very uncertain, undermining power of science actors adopt the scientific arguments most consistent with their interests “science” becomes a contested resource for actors in the policy process, by lending credibility to arguments the body of credible science bounds the range of legitimate arguments, but only loosely 30

Politics and Science (cont) Scientific controversies are frequently more about underlying value conflicts – e.g., conservation vs. development 31

A continuum 32 Science Politics Regulatory Science Regulatory Science: Scientific assumptions adopted for the purpose of policy- making

Regulatory Science Approach Some causal assumptions are better than others – science helps Some policies are better reflections of society’s distribution of preferences than others -- democratic institutions help Avoid: political decisions made by scientists and scientific judgments being made by politicians Prefer: transparent justification for decisions – Reveals boundary where scientific advice ends and value judgments begins – Promotes accountability 33

Next week Formal governance Discussion questions on Friday 34