Global Economic Outlook June 2009. Good News.

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Presentation transcript:

Global Economic Outlook June 2009

Good News

Credit Standards Getting Easier

Foreign Ownership of Stocks and Bonds

10-yr Treasury Yields

Concerns

Sources of Economic Growth

Percent of Long-term Unemployed

Unemployment Rate and NAIRU

Housing

State & Local Governments

S&L Budget Gaps

State and Local Government Drag

S&L Purchases as % of GDP

Sales Tax Collections

State and Local Property Taxes

Stimulus No Ammunition

Budget Deficits % of GDP

Exit Strategy

Real Federal Funds Rate

Inflation Expectations

OOOOOOoooutp Output Gap

Taylor’s Rule Actual Federal Funds Rate

Change Policy Language Interest Rate Sell MBS

U.S. Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast

European Economic Growth

European Bank’s Exposure to Greece Billions of US dollars

Share of U.S. Exports

Outlook Bought Time Vs. Deficits Remain

Debt Maturity Schedule

Who Should Leave Euro? PIGS Germany

Euro Breakup? Political Union Vs. Economic Union

Two Euros Black Euro Vs. Red Euro

Global Debt Problem

Solve Debt Problem? Growth Default Inflation

Debt to GDP Over 90%: 1.7% Vs. Below 30%: 3.5%

Over 100% Stunt Growth

Euro Economic Growth (% change Year over Year) Forecast

Asia Economic Growth

Asia:V-Shaped Trade Rebound Inventory Building Capital Inflows Strong Domestic Demand Weak Financial Sys.

Asian Dependence on Europe

Asian Exports to AE and China

China’s Economy

China’s Infrastructure Spending

China’s Bank Lending

China’s Property Prices

China’s Inflation

Value of Chinese Yuan

China’s Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast

Global Imbalance

Rebalancing Global Trade

Stocks

Contrarian Indicator?

DrSohn.com (not Dr.Sohn.com)