Scenario 3

 Water use  Energy supply (including hydropower development)  Security implications

 Water use and land use  Multi purpose use of water  More agricultural areas  Protected areas reduced  Prioritization for drinking water and irrigation  Poor water infrastructure

 Inefficient irrigation techniques

 Ban on bottled water production and import  Different prices for different users based on priorities  No privatization in the water sector  Subsidies for innovative systems that produce energy and/or water

 Increased cooperation – lower risks for conflicts  Bilateral and multilateral conventions  Strategic planning at regional level  SEA  Tool for prioritization of water abstraction  Public participation  Education on efficient water use

 Plan investment on regional level  Money driven development  Shared HPP (building & use)  Decisions based on cost-effective analysis  SHPP across the region in line with the social impact assessment  Less TPP and more RES (solar and wind)  Renovation of existing HPP capacities  Use of biomass

 Best affordable technology  Effective use of existing technologies  Regional industry for wind turbines

 Regional markets  Investments from life cycle perspective  HPP not for export outside of the region  Cooperation in trans-boundary water management  Effective use of infrastructure  Transparency on production/consumption information – regional information system  Early warning system not operational  Shared HPP – improved security  Inventory of potential locations for big dams  Focus on big reservoirs  Big HPP for export within the region

 Cooperation – increases general well-being  Multipurpose use of reservoirs  Innovation and exchange of know-how

 HPP security supply  Re-use of treated water from WWTP  Brown-outs  Other energy  Inability to provide socially protected price  Security of domestic supply  Mutual assistance  Diversification of sources

 Water quality  Decline as a result of brown-outs  Mineralization of soil and high-level ground water due to HPP upstream  Quantity  Insufficient supply (due to scarcity of water)  More costly to extract drinking water due to HPP downstream  Biodiversity  Loss or gain based on economic conditions

 Food security  Due to water scarcity and prioritization for drinking water  Navigation security  Jeopardized due to water scarcity and water use prioritization  Transport and recreational tourism  Extreme events  Early warning system under establishment but not functioning well

 Health security  Inability to provide services due to brown-outs and low drinking water quality  Conflicts  Potential if no agreements between countries for prioritization of water use  Water quality and quantity`