Water for what, where and how much? Alexander J.B. Zehnder Water Resources, AI-EES Acknowledgment Hong Yang Junguo Liu.

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Presentation transcript:

Water for what, where and how much? Alexander J.B. Zehnder Water Resources, AI-EES Acknowledgment Hong Yang Junguo Liu

6 great challenges in the water area Good water quality for a growing population Enough food for all Water infrastructure (distribution & collection) Solution for water conflicts and fair water share for all Distribution between humans and ecosystems Water induced disasters Disaster protection

Rain 100% River & Lakes Run-off Infiltration Evaporation ET Forest ET Cropland ET Grassland Evaporation Green Water ~65% Blue Water ~35% Blue and green water Blue water Green water MobilityMobileImmobile Sources substitutionPossibleImpossible Competitive usesManyFew or none Conveyance facilitiesRequiredNot required Cost of useHighLow

Annual water requirement per person Sufficient>1700 m 3 Water stress m 3 Scarcity m 3 Extreme scarcity< 500 m 3 From Falkenmark & Widstrand, 1992

Water requirements for people, services, and industry Purpose Daily requirements liter/person Annual requirements m 3 /person Drinking water Personal hygiene, sanitation, and cooking Other household needs Services Industries Social good and human right Economic good From Zehnder et al. 2003

6 Annual water requirement per capita for household, services, industrial activities (average 2000–2009)

Estimated annual world water use total and by sector 1900–2000 From Postel, 1992

Water needed to produce 1 kg of plant material (dry weight) Sorghum250Liter Corn350Liter Clover460 Liter Wheat500Liter Potatoes636Liter Cucumber713Liter Alfalfa900Liter Partially from Muller, 1974

9 Relationship of crop water productivity (cwp) to grain yield Grain yield (ton/ha) Crop water productivity (kg/m 3 ) Irrigated Dryland Y=0.259X – 0.016X 2 R 2 =0.88 From: Musick et al. 1994

Crop water productivity of wheat (2000) < From Liu et al. 2007

Meat production Animals convert 5 to 15 % of the energy content of plant material into meat. The average is 10 percent.

Annual per capita water needs for food to cover 2500 kcal a day 20% meat: m 3 Vegetarian: m 3

Water availability in Israel in cubic meter per person and year (average 2000–2006) From: Aquastat FAO, FAOstat WRI, Yang et al., 2007 and Liu et al., 2009

Virtual water as part of a country‘s water resource ET ~8.4 Fossilgroundwater0.2 Desalination0.21 Virtual water exp. approx Virtual water imp. approx. 6.0 Rain9.2 Discharge0.5 External supply 1.03 Israel Singapore Rain1.7 ET1.3 from Malaysia 0.58 Desalination0.15 Virtual water imp. approx. 4.0 Run-off0.15 Discharge0.34 Numbers are in km 3 /yr

Situation 2000 From Zehnder, 2002

Virtual water export From Liu et al Big Five

Net virtual water trade by country (average over the period 2000–2006) From Yang et al Unit: cubic km no data

Water flux and reservoirs in Alberta (average ) Rain Boreal forest Grass Land Rivers in Rivers out Groundwater Evaporation Agriculture Municipalities & Industries Numbers are km 3 or million dam 3 Virtual water export 17 Virtual water import 1 W ATER RESERVOIRS : Glaciers 30-55Groundwater: alluvial Lakes 200 buried channels Soil moisture 1,225-1,637 bedrock 171-5,600

19 Total amount of water in km 3 Water per capita and year in m 3 Water consumed in Alberta267,900 Virtual water exported175,150 Virtual water consumed AB92,750 Agricultural water consumption in Alberta (average )

Agricultural Virtual Water Export from Alberta (average ) VWE million m ,000 >1,000

Situation 2030 From Zehnder, 2002

Projection of water availability From Zehnder, 1999

Models used HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3), UK CGCM2 (Coupled Global Climate Model version 2), Canada CSIRO2 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization), Australia Parallel Climate Model couples three models, USA Scenarios A1FI - emphasis on fossil-fuels (Fossil Intensive). B2 – local environmental sustainable Future? – models used and interpretation

Impact of climate change on crop production (wheat, maize & rice) Decrease with high confidence Decrease with medium confidence Decrease with low confidence Increase/Decrease mix Increase with low confidence Increase with medium confidence Increase with high confidence Liu et al., in prep.

Impact on crop production in North America Decrease with high confidence Decrease with medium confidence Decrease with low confidence Increase/Decrease mix Increase with low confidence Increase with medium confidence Increase with high confidence Liu et al., in prep.

Food production and climate change: 2030 Liu et al., in prep.

Food production and climate change: 2090 Liu et al., in prep.

Challenges & Conclusions