Asian Urbanization, Transport Development and Environmental Sustainability: Is sustainable transport still possible for Asian cities? Presentation by Bindu N. Lohani, Dr. Eng. Director General and Chief Compliance Officer Regional and Sustainable Development Department Asian Development Bank International Conference on Environment and Transport 3 August 2005 Nagoya, Japan

Population and Urbanization Growth in Asia 0.575 1.367 1.48 2.664 2.4 3.6 3.8 4.8 1 2 3 4 5 1975 2000 2003 2030 Population (billions) Total Urban The Urban Challenge Effectively manage rapid urban growth Eliminate poverty Protect the environment Mobilize the necessary technical and financial resources so that cities achieve their full economic potential Install good governance and sustain institutional development Rapid Urbanization In 2003, Asia’s urban population is 1.483 Billion which is 20% of the world’s population 1 in 3 Asians lives in cities. By 2030, Asia’s urban population may reach 2.664 Billion which is 30% of the world’s population 1 in 2 Asians will live in cities. The urban population is growing by some 40 million a year. Source: World Urbanization Prospects, 2004. United Nations

The Emergence and Growth of Megacities Population (million) Tokyo Bombay Lagos Dhaka Sao Paulo Karachi Mexico City New York Jakarta Calcutta Delhi Metro Manila Shanghai Los Angeles Buenos Aires Cairo Istanbul Beijing Rio de Janeiro Osaka Tianjin Hyderabad Bangkok 26.4 26.1 23.2 21.1 20.4 19.2 17.4 17.3 16.8 14.8 14.6 14.1 13.8 12.5 12.3 11.9 11.0 10.7 10.5 10.1 Tokyo Mexico City Bombay Sao Paulo New York Lagos Los Angeles Calcutta Shanghai Buenos Aires Dhaka Karachi Delhi Jakarta Osaka Metro Manila Beijing Rio de Janeiro Cairo 19.8 18.1 17.8 16.6 13.4 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.3 11.8 11.7 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.6 Emergence of Megacities Megacities are homes to 10 million or more people In 2000 there where 19 megacities, 11 of which are in Asia By 2015, there will be 23 megacities, 12 of which will be in Asia. These cities will include; Bombay, Dhaka, Karachi, Calcutta, Jakarta, Delhi, Metro Manila, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Seoul, and Hyderabad. 1950 1975 2000 2015 New York 12.3 Tokyo 19.8 New York 15.9 Shanghai 11.4 Mexico City 11.2 Sao Paulo 10.0 Source: United Nations, 2004

Urbanization and Productivity Countries like Korea, Malaysia, Fiji and Thailand with a high level of urbanization enjoy higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita than countries with a low level of urbanization like Nepal and Bhutan. In 2003, Korea had 80% of its population in urban areas and a GDP of $12,000 per capita while Nepal had 15% of its population in urban areas and a GDP of only $240 per capita. Malaysia and Thailand have 64 percent and 32 percent respectively of their population living in urban areas and gross domestic product per capita of $4,000 and $2,270 respectively. Sources: World Development Indicators, 2004. World Bank. World Urbanization Prospects, 2004. United Nations.

Air Pollution Trends Trends of Aggregated Annual Averages of SPM, PM10, & SO2 for selected Asian Cities (1993 – 2003) Most of the cities have been able to reduce levels of SO2 to ‘safe’ levels with the exception of Beijing and Hanoi NO2 levels gradually increasing levels and just above the WHO guidelines Almost all cities have been able to reduce levels of SPM and PM10 compared to the ’90s level, however levels continue to remain above the guidelines except those of the more developed cities Air Pollution. The extent of air pollution varies within the region. Levels of ambient particulates – smoke particles and dust – are generally thrice the world average. Lead emissions from vehicles are above safe levels. Ambient level of sulfur dioxide which causes acid rain, is 50 percent higher in Asia than in either Africa or Latin America. SPM Guidelines = 60-90 µg/m3 (WHO, 1979) PM10 Limit = 50 µg/m3 (USEPA, 1997) SO2 Guideline = 50 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999) Source: CAI-Asia, 2004

Carbon dioxide Emissions 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1990 1998 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 miilion tons C equivalent     Other Asia     South Korea     India     China     Australasia     Japan Source: International Energy Agency, 2002

Emerging City Actions Singapore – congestion pricing and vehicle ownership control Seoul – demolished elevated highway to restore waterway, bike lanes, footpaths, and green spaces 30 cities in Asia have introduced or are planning Bus-Rapid Transit Systems

Sustainable Urban Transportation (SUT) Planning “Asian countries and cities urgently need a policy framework which prioritizes the movement of goods and persons instead of vehicles”

Sustainable Urban Transport Build new institutional capacities and regulatory frameworks Land-use planning concept integrating affordable, environment-friendly public transport and respects non-motorized transport Sustained political will Expanded investments in mass-transit, roads, etc. Promote vehicle emission technology Increased private sector involvement

Contribution of the Development Community Increased investment for urban transportation and urban environment management Policy advise on sustainable urban transport to central and local governments Together with investments on the hardware ADB has helped governments, NGOs, local governments and private sector to institute reforms build capacities of institutions developed human resource ADB has also worked with NGOs in view of increasing role of local communities and the changing roles of local government Examples of investments on capacity building initiatives are: Suzhou Creek Rehabiliation Project Pasig River Rehabilitation Project Provision of housing finance can be shown in the examples of Housing Finance Project in Mongolia Slum Upgrading and Housing Microfinance in the Philippines and Indonesia

ADB’s Response: Financing for Sustainable Urban Transport ADB pilot program enabling sub-national governments (cities) to obtain direct loans Promotion of Public-Private Partnerships Facilitating funding for sustainable transport projects through Global Environment Facility (GEF) Support to regional multi-stakeholder initiatives – Global Road Safety Partnership and Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities

5 Key Sustainable Urban Transport Measures for Asian Cities Understand, analyze, and raise awareness on the relationships and economic costs of air pollution, traffic congestion, and road accidents Develop pro-public transport policies Acknowledge the importance of non-motorized transport including pedestrian access Develop road maps for the introduction of cleaner vehicles and fuels Develop and implement sustainable land-use plan which prioritize the movement of goods and vehicles WAY FORWARD The need to create enabling environment for a more robust public private sector participation, create sustainable cities and engage communities to sustain participation in development. Technology and the future of cities Developing innovative financing approaches. Creating, enabling environment for private sector investments. Pursuing new thinking and approaches in the light of emerging urban issues, e.g. City region states, City development strategy etc. Strengthening collaboration with development partners and stakeholders.

Thank you.