Tim Josling ROA Panel Comments Tim Josling Stanford University

Tim Josling Introduction I am an “outsider” to the project I currently work on trade issues I am more familiar with domestic policies of developed countries I know only a few of the 11 countries in ROA But I am very pleased to be on the panel!

Tim Josling OUTLINE Focus my remarks into two topics –How do these case studies fit in with notions about policy reform in developed countries? –Where is the interface between the ROA study and the regional and multilateral trade system?

Tim Josling Dynamics of Policy Reform Students of policy reform have made use of the concept of a policy paradigm Paradigms are a bundle of policy ideas, beliefs about reality, aims and objectives, policy instruments, and associated interest group/political support Agricultural policy paradigms are useful “shorthand” for different policy situations

Tim Josling (Over)simplify policy choices Agricultural Policy Paradigms –Set of ideas about the nature of agriculture –Consistent objectives for government action –Instruments designed to achieve objectives –Political base and pressure from interest groups –World market view –Trade policy objectives Paradigm is the policy plus its rationale

Tim Josling Paradigms in ROA Six paradigms apparent –Agriculture Ignored –Agriculture Exploited –Agriculture Supported –Agriculture Liberalized –Agriculture as Public Good –Agriculture Retail-driven

Tim Josling

Paradigms and Countries Many countries exhibit more than one paradigm Can vary by commodity, depending on structure, efficiency and trade patterns Can vary over time, depending on non- agricultural policy paradigms, macroeconomic conditions and external situation

Tim Josling Dynamics? Is there a progression through the stages? Can one skip a stage? Can one go backwards? Are some stages precluded by conditions in non-farm sector? Are these stages a useful way to think about future scenarios?

Tim Josling Supported Agriculture Liberalized Agriculture Public Good Agriculture Retail-Driven Agriculture Exploited AgricultureIgnored Agriculture

Tim Josling Links to Trade System WTO and RTAs have a significant role to play in the development of agriculture Some RTAs restrict policy options (Mexico and NAFTA) WTO/URAA is a “Framework” for national policies, even if it has not yet driven policy in ROA countries WTO will become even more “restraining” in future

Tim Josling Links between Paradigms and Trade Rules Uruguay Round featured the paradigm clash between Supported and Liberalized models Agreement on Agriculture paved the way for Liberalized Agriculture rules system Supported agriculture still survived as a result of high levels of border protection, export subsidies and domestic support TRIPS, GATS paved the way for Retail-driven Agriculture rules

Tim Josling Links between Paradigms and Trade Rules, contd. Public-goods paradigm not addressed in UR, but included as “non-trade concerns” in Doha round Retail-driven paradigm rising on agenda: EU now pushing for the inclusion of Geographical Indications (GIs); GM issue before a panel, etc. Current Doha Round floundering as developing countries complain about supported paradigms in developed countries but wish to retain them for their own economies

Tim Josling Links to Trade System Market Access –NAMA –Agric tariffs –TRQs –Safeguards –Special Products –Preferences

Tim Josling Links to Trade System Export Competition –Subsidies –Food aid –Export credit –Single-desk sellers

Tim Josling Links to Trade System Domestic Support –Article 6.2 –Development box –Benefits of cap on all developed country subsidies

Tim Josling Links to Trade System SPS –Representation on standard setting agencies –Meeting developed country standards –Use of biotech

Tim Josling Links to Trade System TRIPS –Biotech patents –Plant breeders rights –GIs for foodstuffs

Tim Josling Links to Trade System GATS –Liberalisation of infrastructure services –Wholesale services –Movement of natural persons

Tim Josling Links to Trade System Singapore Issues? –Transparency in Government Procurement –Trade and Competition –Trade and Investment –Trade Facilitation Linkage to agriculture much less direct

Tim Josling Links to Trade System RTAs –Preferential market access –Constraints on export competition –Trade remedies –Dispute settlement processes –Improved investment conditions –But not much on subsidies –Labor migration within RTAs?