Health Care Facility Risk Assessment Daniel Kollek Executive Director Centre for excellence in Emergency Preparedness For Brian Schwartz & Bonnie Henry

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Risk = Probability x Impact

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Components of Risk Probability? A.Highly likely? B.Likely? C.Possible? D.Unlikely? Impact? 1.Marginal 2.Serious 3.Critical 4.Catastrophic

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Probability Rating DescriptionDetail A Highly Likelynearly 100% probability in next year B Likely between 10 and 100% probability in next year, or at least one event in next 10 years C Possible between 1 and 10% probability in next year, or at least one event in next 100 years D Unlikely less than 1% probability in next 100 years

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Components of Impact Type Human Physical / infrastucture Business Severity 1.Marginal 2.Serious 3.Critical 4.Catastrophic

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Impact - Human 1.unlikely to cause injury, illness or death in community members/providers 2.low probability of injury, illness or death 3.high probability of injury or illness; low probability of death 4.high probability of death

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Impact – Physical Infrastructure 1.unlikely to cause physical infrastructure damage causing service disruption with resultant costs/recovery challenges 2.minor physical infrastructure damage 3.moderate physical infrastructure damage 4.extensive physical infrastructure damage with substantial service disruptions, high costs and extended recovery time

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Impact - Business 1.unlikely to cause public/private sector service interruptions 2.minor or limited or short term service interruptions 3.significant/widespread or long term service interruptions 4.Numerous public/private sector entities unable to provide services

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Overall Impact Rating Catastrophic Normal level of functioning or increased level of public/private services required within the community 8-10 Critical Community can assure a normal level of services with assistance from within region or reduced levels of service with resources existing within the community 5-7 Serious Community can only assure a normal level of services with assistance from outside the region or the community is reduced to providing a minimal level of service with normal resources existing within the community 3-4 Marginal Community cannot assure core public/private services without extensive assistance from provincial or federal resources

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Risk Assessment examples ThreatProbabilityImpact (H+P+B) Risk TornadoB3+3+2B8 Dirty BombB/C/D3+1+2B/C/D6 Pandemic influenza B4+1+4B9

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Impact Rating Impact/Probability A Highly Likely B Likely C Possible D Unlikely 11-12:CatastrophicA11-A12 B11- B12 C11- C12 D11- D : CriticalA8-A10B8-B10C8-C10D8-D : Serious A5-A7B5-B7C5-C7D5-D : MarginalA3-A4B3-B4C3-C4D3-D4 Risk Rating

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Priorities 1.Pandemic ‘flu 2.Tornado 3.Dirty bomb

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Priorities Perform this exercise for all: Naturally occurring events Technological and infrastructure events Human related events

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006 Summary Assessment of risks is first step in planning Helps focus efforts and ensures no possibilities are missed Helps prioritize efforts in preparedness