Risk Assessment – all risks approach John F. Ring BE, Dip.OSH, Dip.SHWW ,Dip.Env.Eng., MIITD, MIFS, MIOSH, Eur Ing C.Eng.MIEI. College Safety Officer, UCC

Application of Risk Assessment EU/ IRL Legislative Requirement Safety Management Risk Management

The Law & Risk Assessment A Safety Statement must be based on a completed risk assessment Risk Assessments must be maintained and up-dated. HSA Inspectors in Cork require to see Risk Assessments as follows: Job, room, area, equipment, activity, process basis

Application of Risk Assessment Safety Management Prioritise safety action programme. Rank and prioritise safety audit findings. Evaluate benefit of accident prevention measures & costings. Risk Management Relative ranking of various types of risks ( all potential losses) Prioritise actions. Prioritise expenditure (via risk and risk reduction benefits)

Types of Risk Assessment Quantitative Scientific studies & measurements Comparison of results with limit values Occ. Hygiene, Noise, Structural design, Ergonomics etc. Qualitative Semi-scientific or non scientific Judgement decisions Professional and personal experiences/ biases. Codes of Practice

Qualitative Risk Assessment (1) ‘Decide’ on risk level using judgement, experience and technical knowledge Low or Medium High or Very High Extremely Subjective Personal and individual variations! May not be ‘bought in to’ by any medium to large scale organisation

Qualitative Risk Assessment (2) Use a numerical model to assess risk. Probability and consequence models Judgement, technical knowledge and experience required. Subjectivity remains A good model reduces personal & individual biases/ variations !! Could be ‘bought in to’ by any medium to large scale company

Problems with Numerical Models ‘Every’ risk is either Very High or Low! Assessments often do not relate to reality! Results are easily rubbished! Not seen to be very scientific! Users may not be considered ‘professional’ Non- life risks are generally not covered. How can other risk priorities be compared?

Risk Nomogram in use at UCC Semi-scientific Easy to Use Well received Risk Assessment by Dept. (devolved) Little variations in use Good spread of results Source: Dr. Hani Raafat of Aston Univ. Economic, Life and Environment Risk Types (on 1 model) Graded Consequences Probability /Frequency Exposure duration

Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Four Types of Risk Consequences Economic (6 categories) Personnel (6 categories) Public and Reaction (6 categories) Environment (6 categories)

Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Risk Consequence 1: Economic Category I < €1 k Category II < €10 k Category III < €100 k Category IV < €1 m Category V > €1 m Category VI Total Loss

Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Risk Consequence 2 : Personnel Category I : Insignificant Category II : Minor Category III : Major Category IV : Severe Category V : Fatality Category VI : Multiple Fatalities

Definitions: Effects on Personnel Insignificant: No human injury expected or < 3 days lost time Minor: Injury/ Illness, 3 – 28 or 56 days lost time, full recovery expected. Major: Injury/Illness, 28 + or 56+ days lost time, or permanent slight incapacity Severe: Permanent incapacitating injury/ illness.

Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Risk Consequence 3: Public and Reaction Category I : Nuisance ( Mild reaction) Category II : Complaints ( Minor local outcry) Category III: GP attendances /Complaints ++.) Category IV: Hospitalisation or Local Media attn Category V : Serious Injury or National Media attn Category VI : Fatality or Govt & Media attn

Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Risk Consequence 4: Environment Category I : Insignificant Category II : Temp. Short Term Damage Category III : Major Pollution Category IV : Severe Pollution Category V : Widespread Damage Category VI : Catastrophic Damage

Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Probability (Likelihood): Ratings/Experiences 1 in 10 or 10 -1 (Frequent) 1 in 100 or 10 -2 (Probable) 1 in 1,000 or 10 -3 (Occasional.) 1 in 10,000 or 10 -4 (Remote) 1 in 100,000 or 10 -5 (Improbable) 1 in 1,000,000 or 10 -6 (Extremely remote)

Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Exposure to Hazard: Time (% of 24 hr day) < 1 % (very rare) 1 % (rare) 25 % 50 % 75 % 100 % (continuous)

Risk Level Tie Line High (D) Moderate (B) Low (A) Risk Calculator Frequency Risk Level Risk Conseq. Frequent (10 -1 ) Exposure ( % time) High (D) Probable (10 -2 ) <1% 1% VI V Substantial (C) Occasional (10 -3 ) 25% iv 50% III 75% Remote (10 - 4 ) 100% II Moderate (B) ( 24 hr day) I Improbable (10 -5 ) Low (A) Risk types1 to 4 Extremely Remote (10 -6 ) Risk Calculator

Life Risk Case Study A ( Risk Type: Staff safety) Unguarded machine – potential for limb amputation Regular breakdowns and clogging untrained operators No maintenance procedures 6 hours operation /day = 25% of 24 hr day Regular accidents

Risk Level 1 1 Tie Line High (D) Moderate (B) Low (A) Risk Calculator Frequency Risk Level Risk Conseq. Frequent (10 -1 ) Exposure ( % time) High (D) Probable (10 -2 ) <1% 1% VI V Substantial (C) Occasional (10 -3 ) 25% iv 50% III 75% Remote (10 - 4 ) 100% II Moderate (B) ( 24 hr day) I Improbable (10 -5 ) Low (A) Risk types1 to 4 Extremely Remote (10 -6 ) Risk Calculator

Improvement Option 1 Train staff and provide PPE ( traditional response!) Same operating hours & machine set up

Risk Level Tie Line # 1 # 1 High (D) Moderate (B) Low (A) Frequency Risk Level Risk Conseq. Frequent (10 -1 ) Exposure ( % time) High (D) Probable (10 -2 ) <1% 1% VI # 1 V # 1 Substantial (C) Occasional (10 -3 ) 25% iv 50% III 75% Remote (10 - 4 ) 100% II Moderate (B) ( 24 hr day) I Improbable (10 -5 ) Low (A) Risk types1 to 4 Extremely Remote (10 -6 ) Risk Calculator

Improvement Option 2 Train staff and provide PPE has been tried Consider reducing operating hours to 3 hours per day = 12.5% of a 24 hour day Retain machine set up ( un-guarded)

Risk Level Tie Line # 2 # 2 High (D) Moderate (B) Low (A) Frequency Risk Level Risk Conseq. Frequent (10 -1 ) Exposure ( % time) High (D) Probable (10 -2 ) <1% 1% VI V Substantial (C) Occasional (10 -3 ) 25% iv # 2 50% III 75% Remote (10 - 4 ) 100% II Moderate (B) ( 24 hr day) I # 2 Improbable (10 -5 ) Low (A) Risk types1 to 4 Extremely Remote (10 -6 ) Risk Calculator

Improvement Option 3 Guard the machine / provide appropriate interlocks, emergency shut off devices, power isolation facilities Introduce maintenance lock off systems and permit to work Train staff, resume normal hours Maintain the equipment

Risk Level Tie Line # 3 # 3 High (D) Moderate (B) Low (A) Frequency Risk Level Risk Conseq. Frequent (10 -1 ) Exposure ( % time) High (D) Probable (10 -2 ) <1% 1% VI V Substantial (C) Occasional (10 -3 ) 25% iv 50% III 75% Remote (10 - 4 ) 100% II Moderate (B) ( 24 hr day) I Improbable (10 -5 ) Low (A) Risk types1 to 4 Extremely Remote (10 -6 ) # 3 # 3 Risk Calculator