Pat Westhoff FAPRI at the University of Missouri (www.fapri-mu.org)www.fapri-mu.org Session on “Policy Options.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Crop and Policy Outlook Pat Westhoff Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Presentation to the St. Louis AgriBusiness.
Advertisements

The Farm Bill 2013 Land Values Conference ISPFMRA Nick Paulson University of Illinois.
FSA’s ACRE* Program and the Calculation of Yield, Price, and Revenue Guarantees * Average Crop Revenue Election.
Agricultural Land Use Lori Lynch, Professor Agricultural and Resource Economics University of Maryland.
The Next Farm Bill – A Super Farm Bill from the Super Committee? August 15, 2011 Agricultural Extension Midwest Outlook Conference Aleta Botts, University.
Provisions of the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 (FAIR Act of 1996) Also referred to Freedom to Farm Developed by: Joe L. Outlaw.
The Agricultural Act of Outline Timeline Budget Policy Issues Commodity Title Risk Management Options Crop Insurance Conservation Programs Questions.
The U.S. Farm Bill: More than just the farm Kent Olson Department of Applied Economics University of Minnesota Minnesota Economic Association October 26,
Joe Glauber Chief Economist, USDA 5 April 2012 ISSUES SURROUNDING THE 2012 FARM BILL DEBATE.
Overview of the 2008 Farm Bill Bradley D. Lubben, Ph.D. Assistant Professor and Extension Public Policy Specialist Department of Agricultural Economics.
Soybean Outlook Pat Westhoff Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (
The Scenarios: An Analysis of Safety Net Alternatives Prepared at the Request of Rep. Charles Stenholm January 18, 2001 Presentation to the All Commodity.
Exciting Times? The Outlook for U.S. Agriculture during a World Food Crisis Dr. Vincent Smith Professor of Agricultural Economics Department of Agricultural.
The 2012, 2013, 2014 Farm Bill (The Agricultural Act of 2014) Will Snell – University of KY
Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 Title I, Subtitles A and B Commodity Programs for Covered Commodities 2002 Farm Bill Education Conference.
Legislative Outlook—Budget, WTO, & U.S. Farm Policy Presented by Chip Conley Democratic Economist House Agriculture Committee.
2014 Farm Bill Overview Agricultural Council of Arkansas Board of Directors Meeting West Memphis, AR May 13, 2014.
2012 Farm Bill Update Georgia Soil and Water Conservation District Supervisor Training August 17, 2012.
Agricultural Economics Grain Market Outlook by Cory G. Walters University of Kentucky (859)
The Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 General Overview Crop Program Changes Dairy Provisions.
New Rules of the Road: Implementing the 2008 Farm Bill Patrick Westhoff Food and Agricultural Policy Research.
A Presentation by Craig Jagger Chief Economist House Committee on Agriculture For the Session: Assessing the Equitability of Farm Program Benefits at the.
Farm Bill Background Bradley D. Lubben, Ph.D. Extension Assistant Professor, Policy Specialist, and Director, North Central Risk Management Education Center.
Pat Westhoff FAPRI-MU director University of Missouri Farm Bill Decision Aid Training.
How Did We Get Here? - and by the way where are we? Keith Coble.
The 2007 Farm Bill: Status Quo or Status Shifted? Bradley D. Lubben Extension Public Policy Specialist University of Nebraska-Lincoln Ag econ information.
Econ 339X, Spring 2010 ECON 339X: Agricultural Marketing Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Perspectives on Impacts of the 2002 U.S. Farm Act Paul C. Westcott Agricultural Economist U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service April.
Pat Westhoff Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute University of Missouri
Pat Westhoff University of Missouri Farm Bill Education Conference Kansas City,
Department of Economics The 2008 Farm Bill ISU Extension ANR Lunch and Learn Ames, Iowa December 12, 2008 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist.
Biofuel Policy Effects on Soil Erosion C. Robert Taylor, Auburn University Ronald D. Lacewell Texas A&M.
Joe L. Outlaw Professor & Extension Economist Co-Director, AFPC 2015 Crop Outlook & International Durum Forum Minot, ND November 9, 2015 The Challenge.
Legislative Issues, WTO, & U.S. Farm Policy Presented by Chip Conley Democratic Economist House Agriculture Committee.
Budgetary, Political, and WTO Forces on the Next Farm Bill July 7, 2005 Agricultural Policy Summit “New Directions in Federal Farm Policy: Issues for the.
Farm Bill Outlook Norman L. Dalsted, Ph.D. Professor Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics Colorado State University Source: Dr. Brad Lubben.
Department of Economics Risk Management for Crop Production Agricultural Credit School Ames, Iowa June 9, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets.
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Outlook, Farm Bill, and Crop Insurance ISUEO Farm Management In-Service Ames, Iowa May 8, 2012 Chad Hart.
Farm Level Impacts of Farm Bill Proposal – HR 2646 James W. Richardson Professor and TAES Faculty Fellow Joe Outlaw Associate Professor.
U.S. Farm Bill Update Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University April 23, 2008 In-Service.
Price outlook for the 21 covered commodities and risk considerations Peter Food and Agricultural Policy.
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Outlook, Farm Bill, and Crop Insurance Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 7, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain.
U.S. Farm Policy Choices in 2007 Bruce A. Babcock Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University Presented at Outlook Conference 2006.
ACRE Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development
Price outlook for the 21 covered commodities and risk considerations
Policy Update Joe L. Outlaw Regents Professor & Extension Economist
The Potential Impact of the Doha Round on Grains
The Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002
The Outlook for Crop Agriculture and the New Farm Bill
Biofuel policies and markets in an uncertain world
What to Expect when you’re Expecting a Farm Bill
Farm Policy Review & Outlook for 2018 Farm Bill
Hart - Ag Credit School June 9, 2008 The 2008 Farm Bill Chad Hart
Crop Outlook and Farm Bill
The Lay of the Land in Agriculture
Ag Outlook C US Bank Ag Education Seminar Osage, Iowa Feb. 27, 2014
Market Outlook & Farm Bill
Farm Bill Outlook and the Potential Impact on Agriculture
Crop Market Outlook, Farm Income, Land Values, and the Farm Bill
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Farm Bill Global Agriculture Conference Spencer, Iowa
U.S. Agriculture: A Private/Public Partnership
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
The 2008 Farm Bill Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University October 1, 2007 ISU Farm Management.
Commodity Market Outlook
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
The 2014 Farm Bill Iowa Corn Growers and Iowa Institute for Coops
Commodity Programs: Small Changes, Big Choices
What’s in the Farm Bill for Me?
Presentation transcript:

Pat Westhoff FAPRI at the University of Missouri ( Session on “Policy Options and Consequences for the 2012 Farm Bill” AAEA meetings Pittsburgh, July 26, 2011

 What the world looks like if a new farm bill simply continues current provisions  Commodity markets  Government program costs  Farm income  How the debt limit debate could change things, with update from bills just filed last night

Source: FAPRI-MU baseline, January Payments include direct payments, marketing loan benefits, countercyclical payments and ACRE payments. Assumes one acre of base for each acre planted and harvested.

Source: FAPRI-MU baseline, January USDA’s July estimate of 2011/12 prices: $5.50-$6.50 per bushel  Current prices are well above levels that would trigger marketing loan benefits or countercyclical payments  FAPRI, USDA, CBO projections all show wheat, feed grain and soybean prices remaining well above target prices and pre levels

2010/11 (USDA, July) 2011/12 (USDA, July) average (FAPRI-MU, Mar.) Corn per bu.$ $5.35$ $6.50 $4.72 Soybeans per bu.$11.35$ $14.00$11.59 Wheat per bu. $5.70$ $8.00 $5.54 Upland cotton per lb. $0.82$ $1.10 $0.74 Rice per cwt$12.50$ $14.20$13.03 Sources: USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, July 2011 and FAPRI- MU’s US Baseline Briefing Book, March Note: FAPRI-MU plans to prepare a baseline update after August crop reports are released.

Sources: FAPRI-MU 2011 baseline

average average Direct payments Marketing loan net outlays Countercyclical payments ACRE payments Crop market loss assistance Sub-total Crop insurance indemnities Producer-paid premiums Crop insurance net indemnities Source: Update of “Crop Insurance: Background Statistics on Participation and Results,” FAPRI-MU report #10- 10, Table 1 ( using Jan FAPRI-MU stochastic baseline figures.

Projections based on FAPRI-MU 2011 stochastic baseline

Source: Update of “Crop Insurance: Background Statistics on Participation and Results,” FAPRI-MU report #10- 10, Table 2 ( using Jan FAPRI-MU stochastic baseline figures. CornSoybeansWheatCottonRice Crop insurance net indemnities/acre Marketing loan/acre ACRE payments/acre Direct payments/base a Countercyclical payments/base acre Total/acre or base acre Net indemnities/total44%40%51%40%7%

Source: Update of “Crop Insurance: Background Statistics on Participation and Results,” FAPRI-MU report #10- 10, Table 2 ( using Jan FAPRI-MU stochastic baseline figures. Note: Assumes one acre of base for each acre harvested. In reality, base acreage can be very different than harvested acreage.

FY 2012-FY2021 net outlays Commodity programs $61 billion Crop insurance $77 billion Conservation programs $63 billion Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program$691 billion Child nutrition programs$241 billion Notes: Estimates for farm and conservation programs are from CBO’s March 2011 baseline, and the nutrition program estimates are from CBO’s January 2011 baseline. Commodity Credit Corporation net outlays include commodity programs, export programs, one major conservation program (the conservation reserve program) and some other miscellaneous programs. CBO projects that net CCC outlays will total $97 billion over the FY 2012-FY 2021 period. Mandatory conservation program spending includes $39 billion in Natural Resources Conservation Service programs (EQIP, CSP, WRP, etc.) and $24 billion in CCC-funded programs (mostly CRP). Crop insurance spending by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation reflects both premium subsidies to agricultural producers and program delivery costs.

 Policy outlook  Current debt limit debate could be critical  Ethanol tax credit ($0.45/gallon) due to expire at end of 2011, proposals to eliminate immediately  Major choices could be made long before 2012 farm bill is written

 Could see changes in farm programs in the next week or at least by end of 2011  Reid proposal from last night  Effective in 2012, make direct payments on 59% of base, down from current 85% (a 30% reduction)  This would reduce direct payments by about $1.5 billion per year  ACRE participation may increase if direct payments reduced  Net budgetary saving likely to be a little over $10 billion over FY (summary of Reid says $10- $15 billion)

 Boehner proposal from last night  No immediate changes in farm programs (I think)  But commitment to vote on a bill cutting mandatory spending by year end  House has previously agreed to budget for large cuts in farm, conservation and nutrition programs  Not clear which (if either) approach will be followed  But significant chance farm programs could change before the end of 2011

 Only modest impacts on commodity markets  Bigger impacts on farm income, farm program outlays, land values  See FAPRI-MU report #08-11 at our website, Average impact compared to current law Commodity prices<2% change Farm program payments -$2.0 billion to -$4.6 billion Net farm income-$1.9 billion to -$3.2 billion Farm real estate values -1.8% to -2.7% Consumer food expenditures <0.1% change Note: Ranges reflect different assumptions about whether producers would choose to enroll in the ACRE program if direct payments are eliminated.

 The proposed legislation  Senate: S.1323 ( 2019/WashingtonPost/2011/07/26/National-Politics/Graphics/Boehner- plan.pdf) 2019/WashingtonPost/2011/07/26/National-Politics/Graphics/Boehner- plan.pdf  House: Amendment to S.627 ( 2019/WashingtonPost/2011/07/26/National-Politics/Graphics/reid- plan.pdf) 2019/WashingtonPost/2011/07/26/National-Politics/Graphics/reid- plan.pdf  Yes, they are mislabeled by the Washington Post  FAPRI-MU website:  To contact me:  