Atmospheric Composition Constellation (ACC) Status Report Agenda Item 10.1 Brian Killough, CEOS SEO (presenting) Ernest Hilsenrath, NASA, ACC Co-Lead Claus Zehner, ESA, ACC Co-Lead CEOS Plenary Meeting George, South Africa November 11, 2008

2 Category-1 Action Item Status ACC-3 Workshop was held at the Goddard Institute for Science Studies (GISS) on October 15-17, 2008 in New York, NY. The meeting minutes, presentations, agenda, and attendance list are all posted on the new CEOS website under the ACC menu link and “Meetings”. An ACC requirements and gap analysis was completed by Jolyon Reburn (RAL) with coordinated inputs and review from Ernest Hilsenrath (NASA, ACC Lead) and Brian Killough (NASA, SEO). The report has been posted on the new CEOS website under the ACC menu link and “Documents”. This report helped guide the recent ACC-3 Workshop (above). The ACC team worked with Richard Eckman (CEOS Energy SBA Lead) to develop a requirements assessment for several topic areas within Energy. Many of the measurements were part of the ACC. This analysis was the further expanded in two papers to be presented at the SPIE Asia-Pacific Remote Sensing Conference in New Caledonia on Nov 17-21, 2008 by Brian Killough (CEOS SEO) and Richard Eckman.

3 ACC initiated four near term projects to demonstrate the Constellation concept. Projects involve its international partners using seven different instruments. Projects were selected for near term results and aligned with the GEO SBAs. Projects are showing added value using constellation data over data used separately. Now in their implementation phases –NO2 Air Quality Forecasting – NOAA, Health –Volcanic Advisories for Aviation – ESA, Disasters –Global Fire and Aerosol Products for Air Quality – NASA, Disasters and Health A Requirements and Gap Analysis was completed by RAL in October 2008: Cross-cutting JAXA has proposed an International Group on GHG lead by JAXA, NASA, ESA, and NOAA for closer OCO and GoSAT collaboration and longer term planning using ACC as a platform. A workshop on algorithms and cal/val was completed in May, JAXA and NASA are planning a meeting at the 2008 AGU conference (San Francisco, CA) for the GHG effort. Progress to Date

4 Identify data gaps based on the RAL analysis and agree on their reality –Constituent, time, overlap, spatial coverage Review status of on-going and planned research to develop AC Climate Data Records/Essential Climate Variables –Are the right data sets being compiled? –Value of redundancy? –Better coordination among data producers? Review atmospheric chemistry and climate model requirements for observations for validation and improved predictions –Employ results from AC&C, CCMVal, and AeroCom Identify potential impact on climate models –Spatial and time coverage –Data gaps –Data drift and biases Recommend further studies and establish priorities ACC-3 Workshop Objectives

5 Objective –Survey the requirements for AC measurements over the next two decades –Summarize capabilities of existing and planned missions –Identify mission gaps Requirements Sources –US NRC Decadal Survey 2007 –ESA GMES and CAPACITY Reports –EUMETSAT MTG and Post-EPS (Sentinels) –GCOS ECVs –IGACO Theme Report Report –Mission summaries and AC instrument capabilities –Gap assessment in capabilities and time domain Requirements and Gap Analysis Final report can be found on the new CEOS website under the ACC Documents link.

6 ACC Ozone Chemistry Mission Summary Columns Profiles Gap Summary: Few gaps in ozone column measurements due to a large number of operational missions (NOAA, China, EUMETSAT). Consistency among data sets is still a challenge. Gap Summary: Large potential gap for high vertical resolution ozone measurements. ALTIUS is a proposed concept. PREMIER is in competition with 5 other missions. Sentinel-5 limb profiling is still under consideration.

7 ACC Chemistry (excluding ozone) and GEO Mission Summary LEO Missions GEO Missions Gap Summary: No planned GEO missions for chemistry or air quality until Integration of GEO and LEO measurements is needed to improve science. Gap Summary: Few missions planned for trace gas profiling (via limb or occultation). Limited redundancy exists due to instrument differences and measured constituents limits the ability to understand stratospheric ozone recovery and address the Montreal Protocal requirement. Note: GEO missions are for both chemistry science and air quality forecasting.

8 "What are the impacts of data gaps on climate modeling"? Stratospheric Ozone Chemistry – a continuous balance of nadir measurements (broad coverage and concentrations), limb profile measurements (separation of stratosphere and troposphere composition and dynamics), and occultation (high resolution trace species) is required to improve climate models and measure ozone recovery (Montreal Protocol). A primary focus is to understand the attribution of ozone change to climate change vs. chlorine change. Gaps in future limb profiling and occultation measurements will limit these advancements. Carbon Sources and Sinks – Climate models depend on the knowledge of sources and sinks of CO2, CH4, and CO. Near-term missions plan to address the column measurement needs (OCO and GoSat). Additional profile measurements are needed by future missions to understand transport and vertical variations within columns. ACC-3 Workshop Outcomes

9 Updated Analyses –RAL and SEO will update the gap analyses and mission timelines –A detailed aerosol analysis will be completed. –Gap analysis data will be split into profiles and columns of constituents. –Summarize the vertical, horizontal, and gas sampling capabilities of each ACC instrument to compare to the requirements. –Review the requirements for Climate and Air Quality revisit times to understand their justification. Discuss with GCOS and GMES. Recommendations to CEOS –Complete a set of consensus recommendations by January 31 in preparation for the GCOS meeting in February and the CEOS SIT-23 meeting in March –Identify urgent gaps that need immediate action. –Recommend longer term data and modeling studies that consider gaps or other data deficiencies –Potential topics for NOAA and ESA AO’s and NASA AC ROSES Continue discussion with WGISS about an AC data portal Next ACC-4 Workshop ~June 2009 in Frascati (hosted by ESA). Focused on air quality. Post-Workshop Plans

10 The US and Europe have major Earth Science mission plans that include AC opportunities. –US Decadal Survey (GEO-CAPE, ACE, GACM) –ESA Earth Explorers –GMES (Kopernikus/Sentinels) –NOAA (NPOESS) –EUMETSAT (Metop, Post EPS) –JAXA, NASA, ESA NOAA for GHG collaboration Areas of Possible Collaboration –Algorithms, Cal/Val –Technology development –Mission coordination –Data distribution –Planning for advanced missions and new application LEO and GEO missions will provide highly complementary ACC data Future Opportunities

11 Backup Charts

12 Establish a framework for long term coordination among the CEOS agencies where the “Constellation” will identify specific opportunities for meeting science and application requirements. Collect and deliver data to improve predictive capabilities for coupled changes in the Ozone Layer, Air Quality, and Climate Forcing associated with changes in the environment. Objectives meet participating Agency priorities and are aligned to the GEO SBA’s Objectives will be achieved through the following steps: –Requirements and Gap Analyses based on current and future missions collecting AC data –Projects to demonstrate added value of the constellation through data products serving the GEO SBA’s –Collaborate on future missions. Develop rationale, strategy, and standards for collaboration to meet requirements not being met and remain open for possible new requirements. Constellation Objectives

13 NO2 Air Quality Forecasting NOAA Lead, addresses Health (Air Quality) –NOAA provides AQ forecast in collaboration with EPA. Improve emissions inventories, characterize long range transport, codel and forecast improvements, compliance and clean air rules. –Improvement using combined Metop(GOME-2) and Aura(OMI) NO2 data sets. Common algorithm now running on both data sets. 6-month data set will be compared with models. Improve diurnal and weekly emission cycle products. Plans to make it operational in Volcanic Advisories for Aviation ESA Lead, addresses Disasters (pollution, aviation safety) –Volcanic eruptions impact aviation safety; engine, window and skin damage –Collaboration among VAACs continues with enhanced use of satellite data. NOAA is using OMI and GOME-2 operationally. The US (NASA, USGS, and NOAA) and ESA (PROMOTE) support national VAACs by providing alerts based on satellite data. –National services coordinated and extended to provide global service using enhanced capabilities through US and ESA combined efforts. Includes missions (Aura, Envisat, and MSG), improved latency and accuracy of SO2 and ash detection, global alerts –ESA sponsoring a workshop Nov in Toulouse (VAAC). A user workshop is planned for March Consider uniform data delivery system and standardized products. Global Fire and Aerosol Products for Air Quality NASA Lead, addresses Disasters (pollution) and Health (Air Quality) –Develop global warnings on instances of potential degradation of air quality due to long-range transport of aerosols from widespread burning as well as from naturally occurring dust storms. –Initial satellite products include aerosol optical depth and active fire detections from MODIS and GOES, and aerosol height from Calipso. –Explore international extensions by seeking distribution through existing delivery systems (IMAPP, SERVIR) and by working with international partners to create regional implementations using data from other geostationary satellites (e.g. MSG/SEVIRI, INSAT-3D, etc.). –Initial forecasting demonstration in conjunction with joint NASA (ARCTAS) and NOAA (ARCPAC) field missions during 2008 International Polar Year is completed. –Need to verify operational products. Pending NASA proposals would support additional development. Identify appropriate international delivery/distribution mechanism(s). Project Status

14 Climate Forcings: 1750 to 2000 Total Net = ~1.6 W/m2 Chart taken from 2007 IPCC Report WG1-AR4 Large Aerosol Uncertainty (negative) Large Carbon Impact (positive)

15 Aerosol Mission Summary (1 of 2) Nadir Imagers Nadir Spectrometers Gap Summary: Few gaps in nadir measurements of aerosols. Adequate mix of imagers and spectrometers.

16 Aerosol Mission Summary (2 of 2) Polarimeters Limb Spectrometers Lidars Gap Summary: No limb spectrometers planned >2015 for aerosols. Limits information on vertical extent and transport. Gap Summary: Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS) gap before ACE likely. Fewer polarimeters will limit information on microphysics and optical properties. Gap Summary: Very few lidars planned for aerosol science. Limits information on vertical extent and transport.

17 WGCV – Close collaboration continues with several projects under way –NO 2 ground intercomparison response to NASA AO –OCO/GOSAT calibration intercomparison (EC-06-01_3) –OCO/GOSAT Algorithm and Cal/Val workshop completed in May WGISS – Formulating two projects –Sensor Web to add value to Smoke/Dust Forecast project –ACC data portal is under consideration WGEdu –Collaboration opportunities by exploiting ACC Projects as they become operational and conducting user workshops with educational focus. Collaboration with other CEOS groups