Ending the Fossil Fuel Addiction: What will it Take? Dr. Kyle Forinash Professor of Physics School of Natural Sciences Indiana University Southeast New Albany, IN,USA Now!!

US: 300 metric tons of fossil fuel per second!

How Much Oil Is There? (Should we worry?)

Definitions. Resource or ‘oil in place’: Estimate of what is there. Proven Reserve: 90% confidence it can be extracted with given technology (primary + secondary + tertiary methods). Ultimately Recoverable: Proven + extracted. Unproven Reserve: 10-50% confidence. Shale Oil: Compounds in shale that can be cooked into oil. Tight oil: Oil extracted by fracking.

“Huge Discoveries of Oil!” ? (Proven Reserve) 2012 India – 5.7 Bbl 2011 Gulf of Mexico – 0.5 Bbl 2007 Brazil – 8 Bbl 2006 Gulf of Mexico – 15 Bbl North Slope Alaska – 11.8 Bbl Eagle Ford, Texas – 4 Bbl US Annual Consumption – 7 Bbl

In 1956 M. King Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Excerpt from Hubbert's original paper: Actual:

Sample Hubbert Results (world). ResourcePeak YearRecoverable Resource, Quad Conventional Oil Natural Gas + Fracking Petroleum + Shale Oil Coal Uranium

The Earth is Warming. Alaska: Face of Glacier in 1951 Alaska: Face of Glacier in 1951 Alaska: Face of Glacier in 2001 Alaska: Face of Glacier in 2001

Transportation Accounts for 27% of the Energy Used in the U.S.

74% heat loss 4% idling loss 3% acceleration 3% transmission loss 6% rolling friction 7% air drag 3% accessories Where Does Your $1 of Gas Go?

Technology of the Past 20 Years Has Been Used to Make Cars 9% Bigger with 40% More HP.

Gasoline Will be Hard to Replace. FuelEnergy per Weight (MJ/kg) Hydrogen114 (10 liquid; 5 compressed gas) Gasoline48 Plant Oil (Bio-Diesel)38 Ethanol28 Common Coal22 Natural Gas (STP)20 Air Dried Wood15 Potatoes4 Carbon Fiber Flywheel0.8 Fruits and Vegetables Lithium Batteries (at 400C)0.2 Lead Batteries0.1

Problems with Hydrogen As a Car Fuel. H 2 is not a fuel (requires energy to make). 40% energy loss to make H 2 from natural gas. 80% energy loss to make H 2 from grid electricity. H 2 is more difficult to transport and more dangerous than diesel, gasoline, propane or natural gas. (Transportation of propane is highly restricted.) H 2 will require a new distribution grid (compared to existing electric grid).

Plant Oil as a Fuel? US transportation consumption (2004): 27.8 Quad Energy production, all arable land in the US cultivated with soybeans (bio-diesel): 25.6 Quad

The 2 nd Law of Thermodynamics Limits Thermal Engine Efficiencies. Process Conversion Type Efficiency Large Electric GeneratorMechanical to Electrical98-99% Large Electric MotorElectrical to Mechanical90-97% Home Gas FurnaceChemical to Thermal90-96% Small Electric MotorElectrical to Mechanical60-75% Fuel CellChemical to Electrical 50-60% Large Steam TurbineThermal to Mechanical40-45% Diesel EngineThermal to Mechanical30-35% Gasoline EngineThermal to Mechanical 15-25% Florescent LightsElectrical to Radiative15-25% Incandescent LightsElectrical to Radiative 2-5% Plant PhotosynthesisRadiative to Chemical1%

How Many New Power Plants to Convert to Electric Vehicles? Annual US transportation needs (primary energy): 27.8 Quad. Assuming a 50% efficient electric car we need 10.8 Quad of primary energy to replace our 20% efficient gasoline cars. For a 1,000 MW power plant (coal, gas or nuclear) operating at 80% capacity this is 450 new plants (current US total is 950 plants). For a 2MW windmill operating at 40% capacity this is about 452,000 windmills. For 20% efficient solar panels this is 21,400 km 2 (the size of New Hampshire).

What about Renewables?

Available Renewable Energy (world). SourceEstimated Total Energy (Quad) Estimated Recoverable Current Use (Quad) Solar (over land)8.1x , Thermal 0.2 PV Wind (over land)1.1x to Biomass * 2.8x to Hydroelectric300 to to Tidal Wave6015 to Geothermal1.3x (*food crops, grassy and woody plants, residues from agriculture or forestry, organic component of municipal and industrial wastes, fumes from landfills)

To supply all energy used in 2005, with solar * or wind †. ( * 20% efficiency solar cell, 50% storage and transmission loss.) ( † 2MW windmill, 40% efficiency) CountryEnergy Use (Quad)% Area SolarNumber of Windmills Argentina ,000 China ,950,000 Denmark ,700 Egypt ,200 France ,700 Ghana Japan ,500 Russia ,700 UK ,100 US ,101,500

Dollar per MWh for Electricity. SourceSize (MW) Capacity Factor % Capital Cost Fixed O&M Fuel Cost Transmission Cost Total Cost Coal Gas Nuclear Biomass/Landf ill Geothermal Hydropower Wind, onshore Wind, offshore Solar Thermal Photovoltaic Conservation-60

Won’t Conservation Hurt? Two Examples: Refrigerators since 1970: Increase in efficiency by 75% Drop in price by 60% Increase in volume by 20% on average European and Japanese cars compete well with American cars but use less gas.

Nuclear Choices. Death and cancer rates much lower for nuclear than coal, oil or natural gas use per kWh. France gets ~75% of electricity from nuclear (19.6% for the US, 17% for world in 2003). 'Inherently safe' reactors (pebble bed, modular design, few moving parts, smaller). The radioactive waste problem (vitrification, fuel recycling). Fusion: First reactor by 2050?

Summary Use of oil is going to decline; coal & natural gas will last a while longer (but CO 2 is a problem). Hydrogen, plant fuel are probably not good ideas. Conservation should play a big role. Use of renewables should be increased: wind, biomass, hydroelectric, and especially solar. Use of electric power should be increased where possible because of higher efficiency. Nuclear power may be a necessary evil. New sources? Methane hydrates? Conclusion: There is no silver bullet.

Kyle Forinash Indiana University Southeast homepages.ius.edu/kforina s/Forinash.html Island Press, April 2010