Employment Projections Overview 2012-22 Erin Lane Economist Employment Projections Program NAF Industry Panel 7/10/2014

Employment Projections Background 10-year projections made every 2 years 2012-22 projections cover over 800 occupations and 300 industries BLS projections prepared at the national level only

Employment Projections Products Occupational Outlook Handbook Occupational Outlook Quarterly Long-term employment projections by industry and occupation Technical materials—replacement rates, education and training categories, and more

Employment Projections Process Labor Force Total and by age, sex, race and ethnicity Aggregate Economy GDP, total employment, and major demand categories Demographics Fiscal policy Foreign economies Energy prices Monetary policy Population Labor force participation rate trends Occupational Employment Job openings due to growth & replacement needs Industry Final Demand Sales to consumers, businesses, government, and foreigners Staffing patterns Staffing pattern ratio analyses Staff expertise Replacement rates Economic censuses Annual economic surveys Other data sources Industry Employment Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage & salary employment Industry Output Use and Make Relationships, Total Requirements Tables Industry output Sector wage rates Technological change Input-Output Tables 4 4

Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2012-22 Thousands of wage and salary jobs Service providing Goods producing

Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2012-22 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Total nonagricultural wage and salary annual growth= 1.0% Service providing Goods producing

Occupational Employment Employment Outlook: 2012-22 Occupational Employment

Percent Change vs. Numeric Change

Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Projected 2012-22 Average, all occupations = 10.8%

Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

Fastest Growing Occupations Percent change, projected 2012-22 Median annual wages, May 2012 $83,580 $19,910 $20,820 $39,170 $45,430 $65,860 $28,220 $53,240 $56,800 $52,160

Fastest Growing Healthcare Occupations Percent change, projected 2012-22 Median annual wages, May 2012 $20,820 $65,860 $53,240 $56,800 $52,160 $23,880 $90,930 $26,850 $79,860 $62,670

Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 Median annual wages, May 2012 $19,910 $65,470 $21,110 $20,820 $18,260 $24,420 $32,410 $30,580 $22,320 $29,990

Education and Training Classification Consists of three categories of information for each occupation: Typical education needed for entry Work experience in a related occupation Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation

Education and Training Classification Assignments to each category based on analysis by BLS analysts Quantitative research American Community Survey (ACS) data O*NET data National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data Qualitative research Interviews with occupational experts

Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category: 2012 Median annual wages, May 2012 $96,420 $63,400 $67,140 $57,590 $34,760 $28,730 $35,170 $20,110 Thousands of jobs

Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category Percent change, projected 2012-22 Average, all occupations = 10.8%

Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education Category Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

Education and Training: Top 10 fastest-growing healthcare occupations Occupation Title Percent Change 2012-22 Median annual wage, 2012 Typical education needed for entry Typical on-the-job training needed Home health aides 48.5 $20,820 Less than high school Short-term on-the-job training Diagnostic medical sonographers 46.0 $65,860 Associate's degree None Occupational therapy assistants 42.6 $53,240 Genetic counselors 41.2 $56,800 Master's degree Physical therapist assistants 41.0 $52,160 Physical therapist aides 40.1 $23,880 High school diploma or equivalent Physician assistants 38.4 $90,930 Occupational therapy aides 36.2 $26,850 Physical therapists 36.0 $79,860 Doctoral or professional degree Orthotists and prosthetists 35.5 $62,670 Internship/residency

Typical education needed for entry Typical on-the-job training needed Education and Training: Top 10 Healthcare Occupations with the largest job growth Occupation Title Job openings due to growth and replacement needs, 2012-22, in thousands Median annual wage, 2012 Typical education needed for entry Typical on-the-job training needed Registered nurses 1,052.6 $65,470 Associate's degree None Nursing assistants 593.6 $24,420 Postsecondary non-degree award Home health aides 590.7 $20,820 Less than high school Short-term on-the-job training Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 363.1 $41,540 Medical assistants 269.9 $29,370 Physicians and surgeons, all other 152.6 >=$187,200 Doctoral or professional degree Internship/residency Dental assistants 137.2 $34,500 Physical therapists 123.7 $79,860 Emergency medical technicians and paramedics 120.6 $31,020 Dental hygienists 113.5 $70,210

Typical entry-level education, Healthcare

Typical on-the-job training, Healthcare

Education Pays

Resources for Additional Information Employment Outlook: 2012-22 Resources for Additional Information

Occupational Outlook Handbook www.bls.gov/ooh

Occupational Outlook Quarterly www.bls.gov/ooq

Employment Projections Program www.bls.gov/emp

Useful Employment Projections Sites Technical documentation of Employment Projections program methods and data http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_tech_documentation.htm Other Employment Projections program publications, including past Monthly Labor Review articles http://www.bls.gov/emp/publications.htm Frequently asked questions http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_faq_001.htm

Erin Lane Economist Employment Projections Program www. bls Erin Lane Economist Employment Projections Program www.bls.gov/emp 202-691-5703 lane.erin@bls.gov