Decision Support System Development: Engaging End Users Bill Mahoney National Center for Atmospheric Research Research Applications Laboratory (RAL)

Outline NCAR/RAL background NCAR/RAL background Why is this topic important? Why is this topic important? Defining a Decision Support System (DSS) Defining a Decision Support System (DSS) Assessing user needs Assessing user needs Trends and opportunities Trends and opportunities DSS example – Road Weather DSS example – Road Weather

Research Applications Laboratory RAL RAL About 200 people, approximately half are atmospheric scientists, and half are engineers Mission Mission Develop Solutions: Work closely with customers to develop applications designed to solve specific problems Develop Solutions: Work closely with customers to develop applications designed to solve specific problems Technology Transfer: Transfer knowledge and technology to US government agencies, the private sector, and foreign governments Technology Transfer: Transfer knowledge and technology to US government agencies, the private sector, and foreign governments

Decision Support Systems a) An automated tool that makes decisions? b) A semi-automated tool? c) A handbook of recommended practices? d) Local newspaper or news program? e) Student assistant? What is a decision support system? Answer: All the above!

Why is this topic important? The importance of connecting science to society has risen in the last decade. The importance of connecting science to society has risen in the last decade. Most new research funding is targeted or directed to support a societal need. Most new research funding is targeted or directed to support a societal need. Researchers have traditionally not been well connected to end users making it difficult for society to take advantage of results. Researchers have traditionally not been well connected to end users making it difficult for society to take advantage of results. Learning how to engage end users is critical for advancing science and technology. Learning how to engage end users is critical for advancing science and technology.

What is being done? AMS Commission on the Climate and Weather Enterprise – established in January 2005 AMS Commission on the Climate and Weather Enterprise – established in January 2005 Board On Enterprise Economic Development established to bridge the gap between end users and the weather and climate enterprise. Board On Enterprise Economic Development established to bridge the gap between end users and the weather and climate enterprise. More companies and research organizations are engaging end users. More companies and research organizations are engaging end users.

AMS Commission Organization AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise Commissioner: George Frederick Board on Enterprise Planning Chair: Terry Tarbell Board on Enterprise Communication Chair: Matt Parker Board on Enterprise Economic Development Chair: Bill Mahoney Commission Steering Committee Commission Executive Committee

Board on Enterprise Economic Development Board on Enterprise Economic Development (BEED) Surface Transportation Committee Energy Committee Economic Sector Committee - X Economic Sector Committee - Y

Decision Support Systems Before one can consider developing or implementing a DSS, some important questions need to be asked.

Decision Support Systems First Question: 1) What problem(s) are you trying to solve? This must be asked several different ways before a potential solution may emerge.

Decision Support Systems 2) What is the culture of your organization? - Would a DSS be seen as threatening? - Does automation pose problems? - Are general support tools viewed positively? 3) What actual decisions could be supported? 4) What job categories would benefit most?

Decision Support Systems 5) What technical capabilities exist? - Is there an in-house framework for a DSS? > Network system (external & internal) > Desktop computers > Remote communications (PDAs) > Database of pertinent data Remote Systems

Decision Support Systems 6) What are the potential benefits? - Safety - Productivity 7) Who will champion the technology? - Management vs. staff - Technology push or pull?

Decision Support Systems Application Categories: 1)Strategic Planning (condition prediction) 2)Tactical Planning (alert functions) 3)Operations Management (productivity) 4)Incident Management (notification function) 5)Risk Management 6)Evaluation of “What if?” scenarios 7)Training Tool (off line assessments)

DSS Development Issues There are no off-the-shelf plug and play weather and climate capabilities that can fully address the needs of all user communities. No “one-size-fits-all” solutions. A “bottoms-up” rather than a “tops-down” approach should be used for DSS system development. Stakeholders need to determine the level of sophistication that is required for their specific DSS application.

NCAR/RAL Development Process

Technical Risks & Challenges For Weather Related DSSs

Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts The weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized. The weather research community has not traditionally been focused on the individual needs of specific user communities.

What is usually required? - High resolution information (misoscale = 40 m to 4 km) - Rapid updates (minutes to hours) - Both short term and long lead time (seasonal) forecasts - Diverse set of input data Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts

Users are now seeking: - Probability metrics (or confidence) for key meteorological parameters Example: “What is the probability of the high temperature Reaching 95F between 4 and 6 pm tomorrow?” “What is the probability of 3 inches of rain falling into my reservoir?” Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts

Winter Road Maintenance DSS

MDSS User Needs Acquisition Process 1) Surface Transportation Weather Decision Support System Requirements (STWDSR) 2) Identified large Stakeholder Group 3) Discussed overall goals and objectives with large stakeholder group 4) Created focus group from stakeholder group 5) Assessed current practice 6) Developed concept of operations 7) Developed prototype design 8) Developed prototype – first step that code was written! 9) Demonstrated prototype 10) Iterated 11) Kept stakeholders in the loop throughout process

Current Capabilities and Practice The highway maintenance managers currently use newspapers, Weather Channel, USA Today, NWS, and private meteorologists to make decisions. Road weather information systems are not integrated with road management systems. The winter road maintenance decision process is generally reactive in nature.

On a plow route by plow route basis, users want: Treatment Type (chemical, plow, sand, etc.) Treatment Amount (lbs per lane mile, etc.) Treatment Location (plow routes) Treatment Timing (start/end) Expressed Stakeholder Needs

State DOT MDSS Stakeholders Includes the District of Columbia 35 State Participants

MDSS Products Weather parameters Weather parameters  Air temperature  Relative humidity  Wind speed and direction  Precipitation type, rate, accumulation Road Parameters Road Parameters  Road temperature  Bridge temperature  Bridge frost potential  Blowing snow potential  Road contamination & chemical concentration Treatment Recommendations Treatment Recommendations  Treatment type  Treatment amount  Treatment location

MDSS Display Application

Field Demonstrations Iowa DOT Verify results and be honest with stakeholders Don’t come across as a typical salesperson!

There are numerous challenges associated with the DSS development; however, scientific and engineering technologies are coming to fruition that are likely to produce significant benefits new user communities. Engaging the end users early and often results in better products and user acceptance! Summary