1 Overview of the Emissions Modeling Platform October 17, 2007 NAAQS RIA Workshop Rich Mason EPA/OAQPS/AQAD/EIAG.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
2002 Base 5 PM-2.5 Emissions and Preliminary PM-2.5 CMAQ Base 4 vs Base 5 Model Performance Evaluation June 4, 2007 St. Louis Modeling Workgroup Meeting.
Advertisements

1 Estimating On-Road Vehicle Emissions Using CONCEPT Alison K. Pollack Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corporation.
Developing 2018 Base Case Emission Inventories for Regional Haze Planning Tom Moore WRAP Technical Coordinator –
EPA’s 2007 and 2008 v5 Emissions Modeling Platforms Alison Eyth, Rich Mason, Alexis Zubrow U.S. EPA Emissions Inventory and Analysis Group Office of Air.
Inventory Issues and Modeling- Some Examples Brian Timin USEPA/OAQPS October 21, 2002.
Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) 2008 CAMx Modeling Model Performance Evaluation Summary University of North Carolina.
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Carolina Environmental Programs Emissions and meteorological Aspects of the 2001 ICAP Simulation Adel Hanna,
ADEQ Uses of ICF Modeling Analysis Tony Davis, Branch Manager – Air Planning Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality Criteria Pollutant Modeling Analysis.
B.H. Baek and Catherine Seppanen Institute for the Environment-UNC at Chapel Hill Allison DenBleyker, Chris Lindhjem and Michele Jimenez ENVIRON International.
1 Current Issues And Problems Encountered For Projections In The United States And Canada Presented by Ms. Rebecca Lee Tooly USEPA Office of Air Quality.
Recent Updates to SMOKE B. H. Baek, Alison M. Eyth, Andy Holland Carolina Environmental Program (CEP), UNC-Chapel Hill Marc Houyoux, Rich Mason U.S. EPA.
©2005,2006 Carolina Environmental Program Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions SMOKE Modeling System Zac Adelman and Andy Holland Carolina Environmental.
Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) Emission Inventory Comparison 2008 vs 2011 vs 2018 vs 2020 University of North.
Recent Developments in the Community Emissions Model CONCEPT 5 th Annual CMAS Model User Conference Tuesday October 17, 2006 Mark Janssen LADCO.
1 Overview of Emissions Inventories Melinda Ronca-Battista, ITEP/TAMS Center.
October 29, 2014 Alison Eyth, Alexis Zubrow, Rich Mason EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Emission Inventory and Analysis Group.
Improving Emission Inventories in North America NERAM V October 16, 2006 William T. Pennell NARSTO Management Coordinator.
Developing Alternate Anthropogenic Emission Scenarios for Investigating Future Air Quality William G. Benjey, Daniel H. Loughlin*, Christopher G. Nolte.
COMPARISON OF LINK-BASED AND SMOKE PROCESSED MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS OVER THE GREATER TORONTO AREA Junhua Zhang 1, Craig Stroud 1, Michael D. Moran 1,
1 EPA Plans/Projects Involving Projections Marc Houyoux, US EPA Presentation to the RPO National Workgroup November 4-6, 2004 St. Louis, Missouri.
NEI: National Emissions Inventory EMF: Emissions Modeling Framework Marc Houyoux Air Quality Data Summit 12 February 2008.
Rich Mason, Alison Eyth, Alexis Zubrow U.S. EPA OAQPS Zac Adelman Institute for the Environment, UNC-CH 11 th Annual CMAS Conference,
1 Recent Advances in the Modeling of Airborne Substances George Pouliot Shan He Tom Pierce.
Further Development and Application of the CMAQ Ozone and Particle Precursor Tagging Methodologies (OPTM & PPTM) 7 th Annual CMAS Conference Chapel Hill,
Soontae Kim and Daewon W. Byun Comparison of Emission Estimates from SMOKE and EPS2 Used for Studying Houston-Galveston Air Quality Institute for Multidimensional.
Preparation of Control Strategies October 18, 2007 NAAQS RIA Workshop Darryl Weatherhead, Kevin Culligan, Serpil Kayin, David Misenheimer, Larry Sorrels.
George Pouliot, Christian Hogrefe, Ryan Cleary, Junhua Zhang, Mike Moran,Paul Makar, Shawn Roselle, Rohit Mathur Summary of the Emission Inventories compiled.
Development of Year 2050 Anthropogenic Emissions Inventory in Support of Future Regional Air Quality Modeling J. Woo, S. He, P. Amar NESCAUM E. Tagaris,
Emission Inventories and EI Data Sets Sarah Kelly, ITEP Les Benedict, St. Regis Mohawk Tribe.
Mobile Source Committee Update OTC Committee Meeting September 13 th, 2012 Washington, DC 1.
Impacts of MOVES2014 On-Road Mobile Emissions on Air Quality Simulations of the Western U.S. Z. Adelman, M. Omary, D. Yang UNC – Institute for the Environment.
1 Integration of Criteria and Toxic Pollutants in SMOKE Madeleine Strum, OAQPS Collaborators: Marc Houyoux, MCNC/EMC Ron Ryan &
PM Model Performance & Grid Resolution Kirk Baker Midwest Regional Planning Organization November 2003.
Emission Projections National RPO Meeting St. Louis, MO November 6, 2003 Presented by: Gregory Stella VISTAS Technical Advisor – Emission Inventories.
October 6, 2015 Alison Eyth, Rich Mason (EPA OAQPS EIAG*) Alexis Zubrow (Volpe, DOT) * Emission Inventory and Analysis Group.
Operational Evaluation and Comparison of CMAQ and REMSAD- An Annual Simulation Brian Timin, Carey Jang, Pat Dolwick, Norm Possiel, Tom Braverman USEPA/OAQPS.
WRAP Emission Inventory EI’s traditionally consider 4 sectors : – Stationary Point Sources – Area Sources – Mobile Sources – Biogenic Sources.
Source Attribution Modeling to Identify Sources of Regional Haze in Western U.S. Class I Areas Gail Tonnesen, EPA Region 8 Pat Brewer, National Park Service.
EPA’s 2002 Multi-Pollutant Platform: Model Applications and Evaluation of Ozone, Particulate Matter, and Toxics OAQPS / AQAD / AQMG & EIAG Sharon Phillips,
Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) 3SAQS/3SDW Progress Review to the 3SAQS Technical Committee University of North.
Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) 3SAQS Pilot Project Modeling Overview University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) ENVIRON.
1 Emissions Modeling Survey Results Marc Houyoux, US EPA Presentation to the RPO National Workgroup November 4-6, 2004 St. Louis, Missouri.
Evaluation of 2002 Multi-pollutant Platform: Air Toxics, Mercury, Ozone, and Particulate Matter US EPA / OAQPS / AQAD / AQMG Sharon Phillips, Kai Wang,
WRAP SCC Temporal and Speciation Profile Improvement Project Status WRAP Regional Modeling Center Carolina Environmental Program November 4, 2003.
Emission Inventory Input Format Eastern Canadian Premiers/New England Governors Conference Data Exchange Workgroup Gregory Stella U.S. Environmental Protection.
Overview of ARS Presentations and Review of EI Data Sets AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.
2005 Progress on Emissions Inventories Attribution of Haze Workgroup Meeting January 24, 2006.
Western Regional Technical Air Quality Studies: support for Ozone and other Air Quality Planning in the West Tom Moore Air Quality Program Manager Western.
EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE Briefing for OTC Committees and Stakeholder Meeting September 13, 2012 Washington, DC Julie McDill & Susan Wierman 1.
EPA’s SPECIATE 4.4 Database: Development and Uses Office of Research and Development National Risk Management Research Laboratory, Air Pollution Prevention.
1 Emissions Inventory Overview–Part 1 Melinda Ronca-Battista, ITEP.
Overview of WRAP Emissions Projections
Western Regional Technical Projects 2011 through 2013
Jeff Vukovich, USEPA/OAQPS/AQAD Emissions Inventory and Analysis Group
SMOKE-MOVES Processing
Mobile Source Contributions to Ambient PM2.5 and Ozone in 2025
EPA Tools and Data Update
Overview of Emissions Processing for the 2002 Base Case CMAQ Modeling
Update on 2016 Emissions Modeling Platform Development
A Collaborative Process to Develop a 2016 Emissions Modeling Platform
Development of the 2016 Collaborative Emissions Modeling Platform
University of North Carolina Institute for the Environment
EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
EGU Workgroup: 2016 beta Approach: Status: Next Steps / Milestones:
WRAP Technical Planning Meeting Salt Lake City, UT December 5, 2018
2002 National Emission Inventory (NEI)
2016 Nonroad Collaborative Work Group
U.S. Perspective on Particulate Matter and Ozone
Emissions Discussion Group November 6, 2003
EPA’s Roadmap for the Second Planning Period
Presentation transcript:

1 Overview of the Emissions Modeling Platform October 17, 2007 NAAQS RIA Workshop Rich Mason EPA/OAQPS/AQAD/EIAG

2 Components of an Emissions Modeling Platform  Base year emissions inventory  Emissions models, tools, and ancillary data  Emissions summaries and maps and standard Quality Assurance of Emissions, including comparisons to previous emissions platform  Future projections for reg/policy apps 2002 Base case: remove 2002-specific “events” such as specific, individual fires and hourly CEM so that can be used in conjunction with a future year to use for computing RRFs Future year(s) Base: future year that incorporates known changes from 2002 (promulgated rules, plant closures)

3 Basic Components of Air Quality Modeling System upstream/downstream component here

4 Near-Term Regulatory Applications Using the 2002-based Platform  O3 NAAQS Final RIA  OTAQ rules and studies (Loco-Marine, Bond, SECA)

5 SMOKE Emissions Processing  Created SMOKE specifically for platform  Advanced custom scripts and new approaches  Ongoing performance improvements for this FY  Biogenics from BEIS 3.13 with 2002 meteorology  EGUs: Hourly CEM data for SO2 and NOx (other pollutants follow hourly heat input)  Modeling sectors:  Ancillary data updates SPECIATE4.1 speciation profiles via EMF’s Speciation Tool New spatial surrogates vis EMF’s Surrogate Tool New cross-references customized for CAP and CAP/HAP platforms

6 Using EPA’s Emissions Modeling Framework (EMF) to Manage Data/Cases

National Emissions Inventory  Best integration of CAPs and HAPs to date  Electric Generating Units (EGUs) CEM data for SO2 and NOx Other pollutants use state or filled-in data  Mobile Sources On-road mobile from states or NMIM using MOBILE6 Nonroad mobile from states or NMIM using NONROAD 2005 Aircraft, Locomotive, and Marine from national totals subdivided to counties, and state data  NonEGU stationary point sources from state data  Nonpoint (area) sources, including agricultural NH 3 from animals and fertilizer  Wildfires and prescribed burning are (mostly) daily point-source based data These emissions NOT part of the “regulatory” platform

8 Similarities in the 2002 and 2001 Emissions Modeling Platforms  Same emissions in 2001 and 2002 for: offshore oil production Canada and Mexico average wildfire and prescribed burning  Most temporal, spatial, and speciation allocation factors  BELD3 land use data for biogenics  projection approach for stationary non- EGU source categories

9 Key Changes to the Emissions Modeling Platform  Updated current (2002) and future (2020) base line emissions Numerous improvements to emissions estimates (multiple sectors) SMOKE ancillary data updated for new source categories in different inventory sectors:  e.g., farms and airports in point inventory, portable fuel container emissions  New chemical mechanism (CB05 vs. CB-IV) SPECIATE 4.1 profiles from Speciation Tool

10 Migrating to 2002 NEI, Lessons Learned (examples)  “non-traditional” source categories in 2002 point inventory some 10-digit SCCs: sector/SCC summaries require updated QA/summary procedures Agriculture NH 3 emissions from animal (farm) waste aircraft emissions at airports and sometimes reported as point source SCC related to jet engines nonroad mobile ski resort emissions (very small)

11 Example of 2002 vs 2001 Differences: Non-point and Ag Shakeout

12 Example of Initial 2002 vs 2001 Differences: Non-point and Ag Shakeout (cont.) NY: ERROR- stationary residential combustion emissions TX, NW Ohio: supported by increased NH 3 emissions (previous slide) ? ?

13 Fertilizer Application Monthly Temporal Profile Used in 2001 (default) vs January 2002 monthly factor ~85% LESS than 2001; Supported by diminished nitrate differences in Saskatchewan in July Example of 2002 vs 2001 Differences: Non-point and Ag Shakeout (cont.)

14 Example of 2002 vs 2001 Differences: Nonroad Shakeout miss-allocated ports in 2002 V1, fixed much earlier for 2001, and fixed for subsequent versions of the 2002 NEI ALM sector Kept: state-reported aircraft in 2002

15 Grid size = 36km x 36km

16 Grid size = 36km x 36km

17 How are International Treated in the Emissions Modeling Platform?  Year 1999 Mexico inventories, also used for all future years V2.2 for 6 northern states V1 for lower 26 states  Year 2000-based Canadian inventories, with future years  In both inventories, emissions are formatted to be most consistent with NEI, for example: remove windblown dust, catastrophic releases (tire fires in a state), sparsely-populated emissions

18 How are Natural Emissions Treated in the Emissions Modeling Platform?  Biogenic VOC species and NO via BEIS 3.13 and BELD3 land use data with 2002 meteorology 2001 platform used BEIS 3.12 with 2001 meteorology  impact on ozone estimates very small:   Though lightning emissions are regarded as the largest known “natural” contributor to NOx, NO production rates and vertical distribution and transport are not very well quantified, and its contribution is assumed highly variable and very localized and small on average compared to anthropogenic NOx:

19 What are the Growth Assumptions for the 2020 (BASE) Inventory?  Continue to NOT use economic growth factors for most stationary non-EGU and non-point (area) emissions consistent with approach used in Final PM NAAQS RIA  EGU and OTAQ-based emissions use specific projection methodologies

20 Projection Method Overview -CAPs only  EGUs: Updated IPM model 3.0  Stationary sources: Known plant closures National program controls: NOX SIP, Consent Decrees & Settlements, MACT program, Wood Stove changeouts Removed spotty SIP info previously used in 2001 Platform Animal Population growth from DOA/SPPD to project emissions of NH3 from animals  Mobile: Latest VMT projections in collaboration with OTAQ Use OTAQ’s NMIM to project onroad/nonroad and gas stage 2 Info on loco/marine from OTAQ LTO growth for aircraft Information from OTAQ on gas cans  Fires: Created new average fire sector

21 How are Differences in the 2002 and 2001 Platforms Reflected in the 2020 Inventories Used for Proposal and Final?  National vs. regional NOx: 2002 slightly less than 2001 corresponds to based less than based: 2020/02 < 2020/01 NOx in northeast 2020/02 < 2020/01  Total anthropogenic vs. individual sectors nonroad NOx 2002 > 2001 in most of country, 2020 nonroad NOx increases  “Deltas” very similar by sector/region with a couple of notable exceptions: e.g., smaller VOC reduction from base year to future year in 2002 platform

22

23

24