Sean P MacDonald Labor Market Analyst NYS Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics.

Labor Market Resources and Overview of Orange/Ulster Economic Developments Current Population, population projections Per capita and median household income: Orange, Ulster and Hudson Valley Region. Educational attainment Labor market/Job Growth Trends Commuting patterns Resources for Career Exploration and Planning Useful Labor Market websites

Orange County Population Trends At a rate of close to 6.4 percent, Orange County has been the fastest growing county in New York State since 2000, gaining 22,000 new residents. At a rate of 1.9 percent, Ulster County has gained +3,362 new residents since Its growth rate ranked fifth among Hudson Valley counties. All counties in the region have experienced population growth rates higher than the state’s of 1.1 percent since 2000.

Population projections by age: 2000 – 2020 Percent change by county and New York StateCounty 0 – – – – Dutchess - 1.7% +21.6% +21.6%-4.6%+14%+50.7% Orange Sullivan Ulster New York State Source: Cornell University, New York State Statistical Information System, Projection data by county.

Population Projected to grow strongly through 2020 Both Orange and Ulster Counties are projected to experience strong population growth among residents 19 and under. …And in a reversal of the 1990 – 2000 trend, both counties – as well as the region - are expected to make strong gains among the younger worker age groups that declined sharply through 2000: 20 to 24 year olds and 25 to 44 year olds Both counties, as well as the entire region will also see tremendous expansion among older workers- those aged 45 and over.

Projections conclusions Population aged 20 –24 begins to increase – aging of 0 – 17 population of The post Baby Boom generation (those born after 1964 slows somewhat. (25 to 44 year olds). The Baby Boom generation, now aged 45 – 64 increases significantly. The older population, those over 65 years, also expands significantly. Potential work force will be both young (20 – 24) and older – aged 45+

Income Demographics: Per capita income 2001 State rank Orange County $28, Ulster County$26,02323 Hudson Valley$42,385 New York State$35,626 The region’s per capita income outranked that of NYS in 2001.

Median Household Income: Hudson Valley Counties & New York State Orange:$57,791 Dutchess:$84,465 Ulster: 2 $42,551 New York State: $46,195 1.Source: American Community Survey, New York State and counties 2.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 (data for 2003 not available)

Change in Distribution of Population by Race and Hispanic Origin, Orange County:

Change in Distribution of Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: Ulster County, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1990 and 2000

Percent change in educational attainment, 1990 – 2000: persons 25 years and older High school graduate or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

Percent change in educational attainment, 1990 – 2000: persons 25 years and older Associate degree or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

Percent change in educational attainment, 1990 – 2000: persons 25 years and older Bachelor’s degree or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 In all counties, rates of educational attainment have risen since 1990.

The population of the counties and the region is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse. It is also becoming more educated. The region’s workforce will also become increasingly diverse and encompass more of both younger and older workers over the next 20 years. Conclusions

Dutchess-Orange and Ulster County Job Growth Trends The Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown MSA gained 3,700 new private sector jobs from Feb through Feb. 2005, a growth rate of 1.9 percent. Job growth was strong across many industries, especially trade, transportation & utilities (retail trade and transportation, warehousing & utilities in particular) educational & health services and leisure & hospitality. Ulster County – now known as the Kingston MSA - gained 1,200 new private sector jobs from Feb through Feb. 2005, a growth rate of 2.5 percent over the year. Industries with the strongest job gains included trade, transportation & utilities (retail trade especially) information and leisure & hospitality. Both areas outpaced the State’s private sector job growth of 1.2 percent over the same twelve-month period.

2000 Commutation Patterns Ulster County County Residents At Work2000 % of Total Persons Working in County2000 % of Total Total County Residents at Work81, %Total Persons Working in the County64, % Worked in New York State80, %Lived in New York State64, % Worked in County54, %Lived in County54, % Worked outside County26, %Lived Outside County10, % Dutchess10, %Dutchess3,4305.3% Orange8, %Orange1,9953.1% New York1,5651.9%Sullivan1,1081.7% Westchester1,1571.4%Greene1,0831.7% Sullivan7290.9%Delaware4390.7% Rockland5790.7%Columbia4370.7% Greene5740.7%Albany3040.5% Albany5040.6%Westchester2370.4% Columbia3930.5%Queens1230.2% Putnam2130.3%Rockland890.1% Other1,0941.3%Other7751.2% Worked outside of New York State1,1841.4%Lived outside of New York State3360.5% Total outcommutation27, %Total incommutation10, % (county residents working outside county) (county nonresidents working in county) Net Outcommutation: 16,997

Conclusions: More than two-thirds of Orange County residents work in the County percent worked in Dutchess and 6.3 in Manhattan. In Ulster County, approximately two-thirds of residents also worked within the county, with most of the rest - almost 24 percent working in neighboring Orange and Dutchess counties.

DUTCHESS COUNTY INDUSTRIES WITH THE LARGEST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH: March Change Avg. Annual NAICSIndustry Description Firms Emp in emp Wages 334Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing** 25 13,307 8,1115,196 96, Educational Services 104 6,692 5,1391,553 29, Food Services and Drinking Places 509 6,395 5, , Educational Services (public) ,088 9, , Administrative and Support Services 350 4,783 4, , Social Assistance 172 2,876 2, , Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 97 4,776 4, , Construction of Buildings 341 1,565 1, , Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional Organizations 181 1,314 1, , Hospitals 5 3,670 3, , Electronics and Appliance Stores , Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 71 1, , Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 86 1,647 1, , Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents , Nonstore Retailers , Ambulatory Health Care Services 510 5,259 5, , Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods , Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation (public) ,496

Orange County Largest Growth Industries: Avg. NAICSIndustry Description Firms March Emp Empl changeAnn. Pay 621Ambulatory Health Care Services 603 5,569 4,5671,00239, Food Services and Drinking Places 627 6,886 6, , Social Assistance 176 3,450 2, , Administrative and Support Services 354 3,872 3, , National Security and International Affairs (public) 4 1, , Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents , Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 764 4,580 4, , Miscellaneous Store Retailers 129 1,779 1, , Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies 111 2,032 1, , General Merchandise Stores 44 3,336 3, , Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 127 2,211 1, , Hospitals 6 4,772 4, , Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Activities , Personal and Laundry Services 241 1,390 1, , Hospitals (public) 4 1,254 1, , Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation (public) , Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation 49 1,459 1, , Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 214 2,522 2, , Executive, Legislative, and Other General Gov 46 5,387 5, , Rental and Leasing Services , Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 83 1, , Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 254 2,318 2, ,593

ULSTER COUNTY LARGEST GROWTH INDUSTRIES: March ChangeAvg. Annual NAICSDescription Units Emp in emp.Wages 722Food Services and Drinking Places 393 3,965 3, , Educational Services (public) 42 7,727 7, , Ambulatory Health Care Services 273 2,855 2, , Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional Organizations , Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 406 1,733 1, , Executive, Legislative, and Other General Gov 29 3,405 3, , Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 95 1, , Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 78 1, , Postal Service , Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores , Real Estate , Animal Production , Food Manufacturing , Wood Product Manufacturing , Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction , Specialty Trade Contractors 361 1,479 1, ,415

The largest growth industries over the last few years are heavily concentrated within: Health services Educational services Administrative & support services Leisure & hospitality Construction Professional & technical services Conclusions

The largest employing industries within the county’s biggest and fastest growing industries provides a good indicator of occupations most in demand. In most cases, these occupations range from entry-level jobs requiring little training and education to high-level professional, technical and managerial occupations requiring a two-to four-year college degree and beyond. This also provides a useful guide to possible career ladders in the industry.

Health Services Occupational Trends: Why is demand for workers expanding so rapidly? The Health Services Industry has been one of the Hudson Valley Region’s and Orange County’s fastest growth industries and one of its largest employers. Over the past year, the Poughkeepsie-Middletown-Newburgh area gained new jobs in health care & social assistance. The 7-county region overall gained + 2,700 new jobs in this area. Many occupations in the field are projected to continuing adding jobs through This points to positive job prospects for those training for professions in the field.

Demand for workers in health services professions overall are projected to grow by more than 22 percent through The largest gainers are expected to be Registered nurses Physical therapists Pharmacists Pharmacy technicians Health technologists and technicians ( including medical & clinical lab technicians; cardiovascular technicians; sonographers; surgical technologists). Licensed practical nurses Medical records & health information technicians

WHY will demand grow in many health related occupations? The aging of the population, both regionally and nationally means increased demand for health services and an expansion of employment in the field overall. Increased retirements among those in the baby- boom generation will mean increased need to replace workers.

Aging: In Orange, Ulster and the region as a whole, the fastest growing portion of the population is in that aged 45 and over. Replacement: A look at the occupational projections for 2002 – 2012 suggests that hiring due to ‘replacement need’ will constitute a large portion of new openings over the next several years.

Among the top twenty occupations with favorable employment prospects through 2010, approximately half are in health and technology-related occupations.

Occupational wages Occupational projections Current employment by industry: all areas Unemployment rates & labor force Population and income – historical data for region & counties CareerZone – Career Exploration Resource/skill/training requirements for hundreds of occupations / Links to Hudson Valley Labor Market Information

Links, continued Business Directory: locate employers by occupation/location Downloadable Job Search Program – WDSuite Business Expansions & Contractions Report /

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