1 ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF A PANDEMIC Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor & Extension Economist North Carolina State University

2 SHORT ANSWER Impact will be BIG and HARMFUL, affecting almost every person in some way.

3 CBO STUDY (Dec. 2005) 1.Background Big concern now is with avian flu Deadly to poultry Over 100 recorded human cases

4 2. Study Approach Examine past pandemics Estimate 3% to 4% chance of occurring in any given year Chance of severe pandemic: 0.3% in any given year

5 3. Develop two estimates and apply to today Severe case U.S. (similar to ) pandemic: affects 90 million people with 2 million deaths Mild case: similar to 1957 & 1968 outbreaks: affects 75 million people with 100,000 deaths Assume no effective vaccine.

6 4.Short Term Impacts Severe Case 30% of workers sick in most sectors 2.5% of them die Survivors miss 3 weeks of work

7 Severe case continued Applying average worker productivity rates, loss to economy is: $600 billion (2005$), or 5% of GDP

8 Mild Case 25% of workers sick in most sectors 0.1% of them die Survivors miss 4 days of work

9 Mild case continued Applying average worker productivity rates, loss to economy is: $180 billion (2005$), or 1.5% of GDP

10 5. Long Term Impacts Difficult to quantify, but could have adverse impacts on size of future labor supply.

11 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Study, 1999 Considered medical costs and lost labor value

12 1. Medical Impacts 90,000 – 200,000 deaths 300,000 – 700,000 other hospitalizations 18 mil. – 42 mil. outpatient visits 20 mil. – 47 mil. other illnesses

13 2. Costs Total costs to U.S. economy between $100 billion and $215 billion (2005 $)

14 Conclusions Economic impact of a pandemic on the U.S. economy will be BIG – somewhere between a mild and severe recession

15 Conclusions - continued Suggests money spent preventing or containing a pandemic will be well spent !!!

16 References 1.Congressional Budget Office, A Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues, December 8, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the U.S.: Priorities for Intervention, 1999.