Conflict and Cooperation Lecture 26

Poverty, Politics and Conflict Politics is “Who Gets What:” Competition for Resources in an Environment of Scarcity. As Resources Become Increasingly Scarce, Competition Becomes More Acute. This is Kaplan’s Point in The Coming Anarchy: The Combination of Rising Population and Environmental Degradation will Drive Conflict Shocks Caused by International Economic System Can Reduce Incomes, Raise Poverty, and Drive Conflict (Yugoslavia, Rwanda, Congo).

Conflict Conflict Most Likely When: Distribution of Income/Wealth is Highly Uneven Political Systems Institutionalize this Inequality. Unequal Distribution of Income Between Groups Within Developing Societies Non-Democratic Systems in Developing Countries Institutionalize these Inequalities Unequal Distribution of Income Between the Core and the Periphery. The Power-Based Nature of the International State System Institutionalizes these Inequalities. Conflict Within Societies and Conflict Between Actors in the Core and the Periphery

What to Do? Raise Incomes in Developing Countries. Slow the Rate of Population Growth (Demographic Transition) Create Incentives for Sustainable Resource Use Two Problems with this Solution. Not Easily Achieved Even if Successful, Still Have 8-12 Billion People.

International Cooperation: The Case of Global Warming 1992: Rio Agreement; No Binding Targets 1995: Berlin: Binding Targets, But LDCs Exempted 1996: Clinton Administration Changes Policy, Endorses Enforceable Emission Cap 1997: Kyoto Protocol: Industrialized Countries Cut Emissions by 5.2% Below 1990 Levels by : Hague Summit: Translate Kyoto Protocol Into Enforceable Treaty. The Summit Fails. March 2001: Bush Announces U.S. Will Not Move Forward with Kyoto. November 2001: 178 Countries Reach Final Agreement in Marrakesh. Agreement Must Be Ratified; Japan Reluctant To Do So.

Why Did U.S. Pull Out of the Process? The United StatesThe European Union

Cost to United States as World’s Largest Emitter Reduce Overall US GDP by $ billion annually (in 1987 dollars) Equal to About $1,000 per person. Job Losses from 520,000 to 1.1 million per year, depending upon scale of reductions. Magnitude of these Costs Might Be Questioned, But Direction is Correct.

What About Developing Countries? Congress Asks, “Why are LDCs Exempted From Need to Cut Emissions?” China Already World’s 2 nd Largest Emitter. China, India, Brazil, and Other LDCs Will Produce 85% of All Additional CO 2 in Next 20 Years. LDCs Not Willing to Accept Binding Targets; Too Costly For Development. U.S. Congress Reluctant to Accept Global Warming Agreement that Exempts LDCs.

Broader Significance of Global Warming Cooperation Requires Governments to Bear Costs in the Short Run in Order to Protect the Environment in the Long Run. Many Governments Appear Unwilling to Bear these Short Run Costs. U.S. Resists the Negative Impact on Standard of Living. Developing Countries Fear that Environmental Protection is Inconsistent with Rapid Economic Development.