1 Division of Science Resources Statistics The Complex National Effects of High- Skilled Migration Council for Foreign Relations New York, NY February 18, 2007 Mark Regets National Science Foundation: Arlington Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA): Bonn (Affiliations for biographical purposes only)

2 ETHICAL DISCLAIMER: (No, not the one that says that my employer does not necessarily share my views, although that is also true.) While it is very useful for policy makers and social scientists to study the effects of the movement of highly- skilled migrants: Freedom of movement is a human right that would have positive value even if all economic effects were negative. The greatest benefits of migration accrue to the individuals choosing to move across borders.

3 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Changes in how S&T is done: More S&T activity of all types is done across borders –Teams and collaborations physically located in multiple countries –Both basic research & product development Global capacity for S&T growing rapidly in most part of the world. S&T capacity much less centralized, U.S. now less than ¼ of world R&D

4 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Sending Countries: Possible Negatives “Brain drain”: lost productive capacity due to at least temporary absence of workers and students with higher skills Less support for public funding of higher education

5 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Highest degree from foreign university Any foreign degree Foreign secondary school Bachelor’s Master’s Professional Doctoral All degree levels Source: NSF/SRS 2003 National Survey of College Graduates. Share of college-educated foreign-born individuals in the United States who hold foreign degrees: 2003 (Percentages) university

6 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Sending Countries: Possible Positives Increased incentive for natives to seek higher skills Possibility of exporting skills, which reduces risk and raises expected return of personal education investments Increase in domestic economic return to skills Knowledge flows and collaboration Increased ties to foreign research institutions Export opportunities for technology Return of natives with foreign education and human capital Remittances and other support from diaspora networks

7 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics SOURCES: Thomson ISI, Science Citation Index and Social Sciences Citation Index, ipIQ, Inc.; National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Statistics, Survey of Earned Doctorates (1994–98), special tabulations; and National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators, Relationship of foreign-born U.S. S&E doctorate recipients to their country's scientific collaboration with United States: 1994–98 graduates and 1999–2003 articles

8 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Chinese Student Flows: Source: NSF/SRS analysis of data from the China National Bureau of Statistics

9 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Receiving Countries: Possible Negatives Decreased incentive of natives to seek higher skills Possibility of displacement of native students from best schools Language and cultural barriers between native and immigrant highly skilled workers Technology transfers to competitors and to possibly hostile countries

10 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics

11 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Fixed-effects model estimates of the change in U.S. native S&E graduate enrollment associated with changes in graduate temporary-visa foreign student enrollment An increase of one fulltime foreign student in a S&E graduate department is associated with: fulltime U.S. citizen/perm. minority fulltime U.S. citizen/perm. white full time U.S. citizen/perm. Asian Model: Departmental level fixed effects controlling for department size in the previous period, dummy variables for year, and changes in the enrollment of other groups. Data: NSF Graduate Student Survey,

12 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics

13 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Receiving Countries: Possible Positives Increased R&D and economic activity due to availability of additional highly skilled workers and students. Knowledge flows and collaboration. Increased ties to foreign research institutions. Export opportunities for technology. Increased enrollment in graduate programs, possibly keeping smaller programs alive.

14 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Trends in the percent foreign-born in science and engineering occupation in the U.S.:

15 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Number of Postdocs at U.S. Universities by Citizenship Status SOURCE: NSF/SRS Survey of Graduate Students and Postdocs (GSS) 2005

16 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Multiple Node Knowledge Network Increased and more complex flows of students, workers, and finances Increased regional S&T collaboration and links between regions Global and regional labor markets for some skills Increased importance of individuals with high “betweenness”—those connecting the nodes

17 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Possible Global Effects Better international flow of knowledge. Better job matches through global job search. Greater job options for workers and researchers. Greater ability of employers to find rare or unique skill sets. Formation of international research or technology clusters—e.G., Silicon valley, CERN). Net positive effect on incentives for individual human capital investments as a result of international competition for scarce human capital.

18 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Resources: NSF Division of Science Resources Statistics: Science and Engineering Indicators 2006: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Papers Mark Regets

19 Supplemental Slides

20 Foreign-born proportion of S&E degree holders in the United States: 2003 Source: NSF/SRS SESTAT 2003

21 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics

22 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Is there much of a native-born U.S. Diaspora? 485,000 college educated U.S. Citizens found in 2000/2001 censuses of OECD countries (Docquier 2004) 1.2 million U.S. Individual tax returns filed abroad (growing at 3.5% annual rate) 3 percent of U.S. Native-born Ph.D.s in science and engineering have initial foreign employment

23 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics E(H) = P m E f (H) + (1 – P m ) E d (H) where P m is the subjective individual probability of migration E f is the expected value of human capital H in the foreign labor market E d is the expected value of the same human capital in the domestic labor market Simple model of expected value of human capital when migration is an option

24 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics

25 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Five-year Stay Rate of 1998 Temporary Visa Ph.D. Recipients

26 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics Top 11 countries with citizens with at least a tertiary-level education residing abroad in OECD countries (2000) Source: Docquier and Marfouk, International Migration by Educational Attainment ( ), World Bank

27 National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Statistics